There are two types of clear strategic guidelines of ongoing Madhes turmoil. The arm groups are adopting completely the same strategies taught by previous Maoist Insurgency and other civil political groups complies the similar strategies that were practised successfully during the Second Peoples’ Movement -2006.
Why did the Madhes issues just emerge now so violently and intensively?
It is just because of the faulty, autocratic and discriminative policies of interim parliament, interim government and the leaders of eight political parties. They behaved beyond the mandate of second people’s movement-2006 and tried to prove that the Interim government and parliament are the most powerful one who can fulfil and transform the entire issues and people’s ambitions except to change the man into women and women into men.
The major faulty and autocratic decisions can be listed as undemocratic way to declare secularism, dramatic abolition of monarchy, slapdash inclusion policy, dotty composition of Constitutional assembly, 8 leaders’ forceful slavery imposition on interim parliament and government etc.
An additional feeling they gave, “the entire legal-illegal, legitimate- illegitimate, democratic-undemocratic, rationale-irrational demands can be fulfilled by insurgency, movement and demonstrations or through terroristic approaches”.
Just now, Madhes reckoned the almost impossible demands of Maoist fulfilled by Insurgency, almost unattainable demands of seven parties’ alliance fulfilled by fierce people’s movement. So, the Madhes realised that they have to follow the similar root of Maoist and seven party alliances. Madhes also recognized transition is the right time.
Besides, of course Madhes is a most suppressed, discriminated, colonized, and far away from the political and administrative mainstream of Nepalese ruling politics, government and governances system since last 240 years. Almost all seem agree to realise that Madhes is suffering with crisis of inclusion and living as second class citizen in their own homeland. So, it is natural now to see the Madhes movement in the pick before the CA election.
Is there any relationship between ongoing Madhes Insurgency and CA election in Nepal?
Of course, there is a life-threatening relationship between the CA election and ongoing Madhes movement since Madhes is the home of apx 50% populations of Nepal. The experts conclude, democratically CA election is not possible and neither Nepal will be a complete nation without the political mainstreaming of Madhes. Now people started to ask, what will be the legitimacy of CA election and reverence of democracy, if the CA election holds without adequate participation of Madhesi? Is it possible to conduct CA election in ongoing terrorised and traumatic governmentless situation of Madhes? How will it possible to make success the forthcoming CA election without settling the issues of Madhes and improving the overall security and administrative affairs of Madhes?
Is it possible to resolve or settle the Madhes issue before to hold the CA election?
It seems possible if both parties (state and warrier/civil-arm groups) work honestly in favour of people and democracy. However, it is not an easy job in contemporary transitional perspective of Nepal. Madhesi groups alliances and government are ready for talk and negotiation and both want peaceful settlement of the crisis. However, some ruling parties’ politicians, Madhesi power centres and their strategies are being flawed towards Madhes crisis so the issue is turned into more complex and mysterious.
The Madhesis issues can be address by using special constitutional, parliamentary and cabinet efforts through “one door conflict management approach.” The State could negotiate and make clear that how and what could be possible to fulfill before and after CA election? It is also clear that the all process need special technical assistances and support from UNMIN.
Why did the dialogue and negotiation efforts and wills of both State and Madhesis groups still not materialise?
It is of course due to distrustfulness and ill capability of both parties. Absent of technical plan, strategy, and skill of conflict management especially in governmental side can be considered as a major one cause of the chaos. Partial influences of regressive forces, criminals and so called ancient opportunist Madhesi politicians are major obstruction of the dialogue and negotiation. Another cause could be the Huge and unidentified status of dozens of civil and arm warriors groups of Madhes.
There are no any specific legitimated leaders and parties who could lead and talk on behalf of whole Madhesi people. There are no similarities in demands, preconditions of talk and so on among warrier groups because Madhes movement is considered as a movement without specific leaders, parties and groups, it is totally impulsive.
In addition, Government is knowingly adopting faulty way to build a conducive environment for official dialogue. Just to say or invite them haphazardly for dialogue and negotiation without needy technical preparation is clearly proves the ill-intention and carelessness over the problem. In practices, it shown that our ruling mechanisms and parties just verbally offering for dialogue and negotiation through a meeting or public speech or media, ignoring the recently made experiences/practised module of procedural political mainstreaming ways of Maoist and without fulfilling and developing basic substructure .
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