Key Trump message: I will bring your jobs back. Key constituent expectation: good jobs.
Immigration and Race: Pew observes that most of the four Trump groups have very conservative beliefs about immigration and race. "Steadfast Conservatives view immigrants as a burden (73%) and as a threat to traditional values (81%)... About eight-in-ten [Hard-Pressed Skeptics] say immigrants are a burden because they take jobs, housing and health care."
The Trump groups believe the "civil-rights era" should be over, "About eight-in-ten Business (83%) and Steadfast Conservatives (81%) agree that the U.S. has made the changes needed to give blacks equal rights with whites."
Steadfast Conservatives are the most demonstrably racist of the four groups.
Expectations: Steadfast Conservatives expect Trump to "build the wall" and to expel undocumented immigrants from the US. Business Conservatives expect Trump to cut taxes, eliminate regulations, and disband Federal agencies that are perceived to be anti-business -- such as the EPA. Young Outsiders and Hard-Pressed Skeptics expect good jobs.
Trump may be able to build part of a wall, and expel some undocumented, and cut taxes and eliminate regulations, but he will find big-time job creation a more difficult challenge. As I noted last month (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bob-burnett/trumps-first-mistake_b_13044048.html) Trump seems unlikely to expend his political capital on a massive publicly-funded infrastructure -- which is the one proven way to quickly create hundreds of thousands of decent jobs.
Trump will play to his Steadfast Conservative and Business Conservative bases. He will disappoint (and disgust) the rest of the electorate, which will be an opportunity for Democrats.
(Note: You can view every article as one long page if you sign up as an Advocate Member, or higher).
