"Rouhani was not a reformist but the reformists put their social capital on sale by supporting him-- says former MP Nasser Qavami, who believes reformists have already lost the game by supporting a non-reformist.
Reformists and other moderates now have almost no selling point to entice even their own disillusioned supporters to vote. They can no longer hope to defeat the conservatives who have already conquered parliament.
The 2020 parliamentary elections were a litmus test for moderates: With the lowest turnout since the 1979 Islamic Revolution (admittedly affected by the pandemic), reformists didn't just lose the vote but were annihilated: they dropped from a plurality of 121 seats to just 20 seats.
Trump or Biden? Yes, it does it make a difference for Iran
Whether the incumbent Donald Trump is re-elected or his Democratic rival Joe Biden wins the White House cannot help but decisively impact Iran's immediate foreign policy strategy because, from the point of view of moderates, the two candidates have genuinely different approaches to Iran. This runs counter to the conservatives' view, which is that an anti-Iran policy is the only policy possible from Washington no matter who is elected.
Seyed Mohammad Marandi, a key political analyst and a professor at Tehran University, believes Iran will be in a better position if Trump wins the U.S. election.
"An internationally isolated US under Trump will have little chance of gaining any serious accomplishment against Iran. But if Biden wins, he will act better in forging consensus against Iran," Marandi asserts.
Despite his bellicose rhetoric, Trump has indicated that he doesn't want a war with Iran, and he has employed military intervention far less than his recent predecessors. However, there is no guarantee he will follow this same strategy in his second term, worrying many.
"Since he doesn't need voters' support in his second term, the possibility of military confrontation with Iran increases," suggests Afshar Soleimani, an Iranian political analyst.
With that in mind, a Trump victory may cause Iran to ultimately lean towards a more aggressive approach: ditching the landmark nuclear deal and boosting the controversial missile program. Much to the chagrin of the US, Iran is now allowed to export arms after a 13-year old ban was just lifted under the JCPOA. Houthis in Yemen and Lebanon's Hezbollah top the list of allies whom Iran may supply with weapons.
The best option to enforce this type of a change to foreign policy could be a president who has served in the military.
Military-turned president in the making?
This should be viewed as a major strategic shift as the Islamic Republic has always had a civilian president.
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