Dr. Ahmed's research has also been used by the 9/11 Commission; the US Army Air University's "Causes of War' collection (2007); the UK Ministry of Defence's Joint Services Command & Staff College Research Guide on Counter-Terrorism and the GWOT (2008); Chatham House's Middle East Programme; the International Labour Organization's (ILO) "World Commission on the Social Dimension of Globalization' social science bibliography on impacts of globalization (2003); the Oxford Handbook of Genocide Studies (2010),among others. He testified in US Congress in 2005, advised the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst in 2009, and advised the UK Parliamentary Inquiry into the "Prevent' programme. He has also consulted for projects funded by the UK Department of Communities & Local Government and the US Department of State.
SUMMARY OF STUDY FINDINGS
The study is the first systematic review of data, evidence and theory across physical and social sciences including Solar Physics; Atmospheric & Earth Sciences; Oceanography; Geology; Human Ecology; Development, Monetary and Financial Economics; Security Studies; Systems Theory; International Relations Theory; and Social Theory. It was peer-reviewed by a multidisciplinary panel of twelve scientists and scholars including climate scientists, ecologists, economists, former US government security officials, and political scientists.
THE STUDY'S SIX CORE EMPIRICAL FINDINGS:
1) At over 445 parts per million (ppm) the world is well-beyond the safe limit for greenhouse gas concentrations at between 280-300ppm, and likely to trigger a process of irreversible, runaway warming leading to a largely uninhabitable 8C world by 2100. Government plans to "stabilise' emissions around the 450ppm are set to guarantee such a runaway warming process.
2) World oil production peaked in 2005, plateaued through to 2008, and is currently declining inexorably. This will lead to a major supply crunch around 2014, beyond which oil prices are likely to rise permanently.
3) Coal and natural gas production will peak around 2025. Uranium production will peak around 2035. Fast-breeder nuclear technology cannot be scaled up fast and reliably enough to make-up for the oil shortfall. Oil shale, tar sands and deepwater reserves will remain incapable of making a meaningful contribution to world energy demand.
4) World agricultural productivity between 1990-2007 has halved compared to 1950-90, and is likely to decrease further. Peak oil will establish an upper limit on hydrocarbon-dependent industrial agricultural methods, while accelerating global warming will intensify water-shortages leading to world crop yield declines of up to 20-40 per cent by mid-century, if not worse far earlier.
5) Excessive dependence on credit creation to generate profits meant that the peak-oil driven oil price hikes from 2006-2008 generated massive inflationary pressure, leading to systematic defaults in housing markets that then collapsed the whole derivatives house of cards built on them. The post-peak economy will likely consist of a decade of oil price swings combined with repeated economic growth and contraction before eventual permanent contraction after the breach of oil capacity limits, beginning in 2014, and accelerating in 2018, leading to a period of hyperinflation and recession correlated with drastic energy-supply shortages.
6) The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, along with other military operations such as in Somalia, Algeria, Yemen and beyond, are closely (but not exclusively) linked to defence planning over future resource scarcity; future resource wars are highly probable on a business-as-usual model. Those wars will increasingly focus on Muslim-majority regions, escalating the belief in a "clash of civilizations', and potentially leading to genocidal violence.
For more information or to request advance review copies, please contact info@iprd.org.uk or call +44(0)7824 441 044
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