But to use a cricket phrase: "politics is a game of glorious uncertainties." For all of the chatter political speculation will re-focus and change the moment Donald Trump becomes the de facto Republican nominee. Almost instantaneously millions of voters, including undecided, women and independents, will recall that Trump is today more unhinged and erratic than a batwings door in a haunted saloon. These voters may even worry that an individual of Trump's volatile temperament should not be returned for second stint in the White House. Once Donald Trump returns to center stage as the Republican Party's candidate for POTUS, swing voters will notice that his disjointed, incoherent speeches have become darker, and his social media posts more venomous and deranged.
Finally, while I do not have a crystal ball, I CAN predict that right now national polls mean little. You see, you win presidential elections state by state through the Electoral College. In the 2020 contest the closest battleground states (i.e., those decided by 3 points or less) were either around the Great Lakes (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) or along the Sun Belt (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina).That said, Joe Biden would be reelected in 2024 if he wins all the states in either region with one caveat: so long as he also wins the remaining states he took in 2020. The bottom line: To win in 2024, Joe Biden needs motivated young people and people of color to support him with the same enthusiasm as they did in 2020. The Israel-Hamas war is threatening to rapidly erode that support. And the longer the president doubles down on unconditional support for Israel is the more that support will evaporate. A Gallup poll last month indicated that Biden's approval rating among Democrats plummeted to a record low of 75% -- down a stunning 11 percentage points in just a month - meaning that a whopping 25 percent of the president's own party do not want to support him. That's the Israel-Gaza War dead weight around his neck. But there is still time for the president to reverse this.
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