Egypt is not Libya or Syria. Egypt's armed forces are far more organized and equipped than the other Arab countries. And the Egyptian army and security forces have benefited greatly from Mubarak's tenure growing fat and rich. There are, for now, no armed defections from the Egyptian Army or security forces as what happened in Libya. And in Syria the defections are small and without the military hardware to challenge the Assad regime where his tribal kinsmen control all of the armed forces. There is therefore a stalemate in Syria. On one side the government cannot control or suppress the protests and demonstrations around the country and on the other the demonstrators cannot topple the government.
Like Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and Yemen, the Syrian protest is still disorganized and lacks a cohesive political movement and vehicle capable of presenting itself as an alternative to the Assad government. In Libya the overthrow of Gadaffi was accomplished with the help of NATO and US bombardment that has left the country in a wreck. Oil is the motivation for western involvement and with over 200 tribes the transition is likely to be more bloody and sectarian and will take a very long time.
Clearly, Egypt has the greatest potential for success -- even a genuine popular people's revolution. But to get there will be no easy task. So for now lets take a step back and recognize that street protests, mass agitation and dissatisfaction with the ruling class are progressive tools but not revolution.
(Note: You can view every article as one long page if you sign up as an Advocate Member, or higher).
1
1
