As power shifts in Mexico from the ruling elite to the nouveau riche narco cartels, the implications for the U.S. are significant. The reasons are obvious. The shared border, the heavy trade between the nations and immigration speak to Mexico's importance. Previously, Mexican citizens leaving their home for the U.S. were motivated by a collapsing economy and job opportunities in the U.S. More and more, immigrants seek escape from intimidation, injury and death at the hands of the drug lords.
The United States is faced with refugees and, at the same time, a numerically small but highly potent cross border gangs of unstrained thugs who use bribery, intimidation, and violence to work their will.
Should Mexico see a de fac to takeover by the drug lords, two outcomes will be immediate. Mexico's economy will collapse as investors flee. In addition, the wave of border crossings will increase out of fear and economic necessity.
The Bush and Obama administrations have stressed the importance of the U.S.-Mexico relationship but Mexico's decline due to the disorder caused by drug cartels is largely an internal matter to correct. The only assured outside intervention would be a precipitous drop in U.S. cannabis, heroin, and meth consumption. That would cripple the cartels but it's simply not going to happen.
What to Watch in the Mexican Elections of July 4
Will there be violence at Mexican polling places? Will turnout go down significantly? How many elections will be challenged? How many will show obvious signs of election fraud. If Election Day in Mexico is marred with controversy or produces a major drop in turnout, the cartels will have created a political vacuum that they will hasten to fill. Image
The specific race to watch is the contest for Governor of Oaxaca. That state has a strong people's movement that occupied the state capitol in June 2006. They defeated police seeking to end their demonstrations and set up their own governing organization. In November, 2006, harsh measures were used by the central government to end the demonstration.
The protests were sparked by decades of misrule and corruption by Mexico's PRI Party and then governor, Ulises Ruiz Ortiz. Corruption was rampant as was oppression. The PRI's campaign to carry on their decades of rule forced a coalition of parties to oppose the PRI candidate. The left leaning PRD, the conservative PAN party, and the minor parties unified behind Gabino Cuà © as their candidate.
If Cuà © is defeated, the belief in change by those throughout Mexico will be severely challenged. Even if he wins, the nation will face the aftermath of President Calderà ³n's ruinous war on drugs and the infusion of narco influence and outright control in our most populous and important neighbor.
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