clare.malone: I really don't think we can discount the behind-the-scenes frustration at the Sanders campaign. I think there are a lot in the Dem establishment who want Bernie ideas in a non-Bernie package.
natesilver: That's an interesting way to put it, Clare. Is that what Democratic voters want, though?
If that doesn't whet your appetite it's hard to say what would. The whole thing is well worth a read.
Silver prefaced the debate by referring to a piece that Matthew Yglesias posted to Vox entitled Bernie Sanders is the Democrat's Real 2020 Front Runner . It seems this article was what provoked the debate at 538.
natesilver: One of Yglesias's points is that "Bernie Sanders has a clear message" -- everyone knows what he stands for. Do you agree that everyone knows what Sanders stands for? And how much of an advantage is that?
clare.malone: It's certainly a big one, particularly since the only thing that most Democrats can seem to come up with is just to rant against Trump.
I must confess I didn't notice the piece when it came out. Just now who the Democratic Candidate will be in 2020 isn't foremost in my mind. Having read the article I must say that Yglesias presents a compelling case. His article too is worth a read, if only to place the discussion at 538 in context. I do disagree with one of his fundamental assumptions, though.
He's doing exactly what a candidate who fell short needs to do to run a second time. He's established a national political organization, he's improved his ties with colleagues on Capitol Hill, he's maintained a heavy presence in national media, and he's traveling the country talking about issues.
Here I think Yglesias betrays a certain narrowness of perspective that is an occupational hazard in US politics. While it may be true that Sanders is doing exactly what a candidate needs to do, it doesn't follow that it is the only possible reason for his doing so.
The basic problem with Yglesias take is that he, like the vast majority of our so-called pundit class, tends to view politics as essentially, if not solely, a matter of office seeking. It never seems to occur to some folks that Sanders' goal might be something quite different. That whether campaigning for the Presidency or in defense ACA, he might actually be in pursuit of a much bigger prize: a fundamental transformation of US politics.
What I know is that if I were in Sanders' shoes I'd be doing exactly the same things, whether or not I intended to run again. Because such a transformation would be my goal. I think it is also Sanders' goal, as expressed in the call for a "Political Revolution".
While Sanders is deepening his team in Washington, his national political organization Our Revolution is diligently working to get Sanders supporters elected to state and local offices. Critically, the list of Our Revolution winners -- a group that includes House members, state legislators, state party chairs, and even city council members -- is quite ethnically diverse. His camp is aware that 2016's African-American outreach strategy was flawed in both concept and execution, and he's setting himself up to be able to count on black and Latino elected officials from all regions of the country as surrogates while also courting national leaders like the NAACP's William Barber.
In sum, I'm not as certain as Yglesias that Sanders is in the running for 2020. So all the horse race stuff seems to be putting the cart before the horse to me.
What does seem certain is that Sanders is positioning himself so that the issues he raised in 2016 and the politics he champions will be a factor in 2020.
The wheel's still in spin.
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