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But wait, the fair warning on page 13 explains: "High confidence ... does not imply that the assessment is a fact or a certainty; such judgments might be wrong. ... Judgments are not intended to imply that we have proof that show something to be a fact. Assessments are based on collected information, which is often incomplete or fragmentary, as well as logic, argumentation, and precedents."
Questionable Logic
The "logic" referred to rests primarily on assumptions related to Trump's supposed friendliness with Putin, what Clinton Campaign Manager John Podesta called in 2015 a "bromance." It assumes that Trump has been more than willing to do the Kremlin's bidding from the White House, whether due to financial relationships Trump has with the Russians, or because he "owes them" for helping him get elected, or whether he is being blackmailed by "the pee tape" that Christopher Steele alluded to in his "dodgy dossier."
This is the crux of the whole "treason" aspect of the Russiagate conspiracy theory -- the idea that Trump is a Manchurian (or as some clever wags among Russiagaters claim, a Siberian) candidate who is directly under the influence of the Kremlin.
Even as U.S.-Russian relations drop to historic lows -- with tensions approaching Cuban Missile Crisis levels -- amazingly, there are still those promoting this theory, including some in the supposedly "progressive" alternative media like The Young Turks (TYT). Following Putin's announcement on developments in Russia's nuclear program earlier this month, TYT's Cenk Uygur slammed Trump for not being more forceful in denouncing Putin, complaining that Trump "never criticizes Putin." Uygur even speculated: "I'm not sure that Trump represents our interests above Putin's."
This line of thinking ignores a preponderance of evidence that the U.S. posture against Russian interests has only hardened over the past year-plus of the Trump administration -- perhaps in part as a result of Trump's perceived need to demonstrate that he is not in "Putin's pocket."
The U.S. has intensified its engagement in Syria, for one thing, reportedly killing several Russians in recent airstrikes -- a dangerous escalation that could lead to all-out military confrontation with Moscow and hardly the stuff of an alleged "bromance" between Trump and Putin. Then there was the Trump administration's recent decision to provide new lethal weapons to the Ukrainian military -- a major reversal of the Obama administration's more cautious approach and an intensification of U.S. involvement in a proxy war on Russia's border. The Russian foreign ministry angrily denounced this decision, saying the U.S. had "crossed the line" in the Ukraine conflict and accused Washington of fomenting bloodshed.
On other major policy issues, the Trump administration has also been pushing a hard anti-Russian line, reiterating recently that it would never recognize Crimea as part of Russia, criticizing Russia for allegedly enabling chemical attacks in Syria, and identifying Moscow as one of the U.S.'s major adversaries in the global struggle for power and influence.
"China and Russia," the administration stated in its recent National Security Strategy, "challenge American power, influence, and interests, attempting to erode American security and prosperity." In the recently issued Nuclear Posture Review, the U.S. identifies Russia as a "contemporary threat," and has a chapter outlining "A Tailored Strategy for Russia." The document warns that Russia has "decided to return to Great Power competition."
How does this in any way indicate that Trump is representing "Putin's interests" above "ours," as Uygur claims?
In short, there is no evidence to back up the theory that Putin helped Trump become president in order to do the Kremlin's bidding, and no one pushing this idea should be taken seriously. In this respect, the Republicans' "Initial Findings" -- particularly the rejection of "Putin's supposed preference for candidate Trump" have more credibility than most of the "analysis" put out so far, including the Jan. 6, 2017 ICA that has been held up as sacrosanct.
Democrats Angry
The irrepressible Congressman Adam Schiff, Ranking Member of the House Intelligence Committee, and his fellow Democrats are in high dudgeon over the release of the Committee's "Initial Findings" after "only" one year of investigation. So, of course, is NBC's Rachel Maddow and other Russiagate aficionados. They may even feel a need to come up with real evidence -- rather than Clapperisms like "But everyone knows about the Russians, and how, for example, they just really hated it when Mrs. Clinton called Putin Hitler."
I had the opportunity to confront Schiff personally at a think tank in Washington, DC on January 25, 2017. President Obama, on his way out of office, had said something quite curious at his last press conference just one week earlier about inconclusive conclusions: "The conclusions of the intelligence community with respect to the Russian hacking were not conclusive" regarding WikiLeaks. In other words, the intelligence community had no idea how the DNC emails reached WikiLeaks.
Schiff had just claimed as flat fact that the Russians hacked the DNC and Podesta emails and gave them to WikiLeaks to publish. So I asked him if he knew more than President Obama about how Russian hacking had managed to get to WikiLeaks.
Schiff used the old, "I can't share the evidence with you; it's classified." OK, I'm no longer cleared for classified information, but Schiff is; and so are all his colleagues on the House Intelligence Committee. The Republican majority has taken issue with the cornerstone assumption of those who explain Russian "hacking" and other "meddling" as springing from the "obvious fact" that Putin favored Trump. The ball is in Schiff's court.
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