The 19th century had been plagued by bank runs, caused by banks having too little gold to back their outstanding loans. The Federal Reserve was instituted in 1913 ostensibly to prevent those runs, but its levee did not hold back the run of the 1930s. In 1933, the country suffered a massive banking collapse, forcing President Roosevelt to declare a banking holiday and take the U.S. dollar, too, off the gold standard.
Freed from the Bankers' "Cross of Gold"
The transition off the gold standard was a painful one; but according to Beardsley Ruml, Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the country was the better for it. In a paper read before the American Bar Association in 1946, he said that going off the gold standard had finally allowed the country to be economically sovereign:
Final freedom from the domestic money market exists for every sovereign national state where there exists an institution which functions in the manner of a modern central bank, and whose currency is not convertible into gold or into some other commodity.
Freed from the strictures of gold, Roosevelt was able to jump-start the economy with deficit spending. As Marshall Auerback details, the next four years constituted the biggest cyclical boom in U.S. economic history. Real GDP grew at a 12% rate and nominal GDP grew at a 14% rate.
Then in 1937, Roosevelt listened to the deficit hawks of his day and slashed the deficit. The result was a surge in unemployment, and the economy slipped back into depression.
What lifted the country out of the doldrums was again deficit spending, liberally engaged in to fund World War II. In wartime, few people worry about the national debt. The debt grew to 120% of GDP - twice what it is today -- and wound up sustaining another very productive period in U.S. history, one that set the country up to lead the world in manufacturing for the next half century.
On Inflation and Taxes
Ruml said federal taxes were no longer needed to fund the budget, which could be financed by issuing bonds. The principal purpose of taxes, he said, was " the maintenance of a dollar which has stable purchasing power over the years. Sometimes this purpose is stated as 'the avoidance of inflation.'"
The government could spend as needed to meet its budget, drawing on credit issued by its own central bank. It could do this until price inflation indicated a weakened purchasing power of the currency. Then, and only then, would the money supply need to be contracted with taxes.
"The dollars the government spends become purchasing power in the hands of the people who have received them," Ruml said. "The dollars the government takes by taxes cannot be spent by the people," so the money supply can be contracted with taxes as needed.
When the economy is in a recession, however - as it is now -- the government needs to spend in order to get purchasing power into the hands of the people. Businesses cannot hire more workers until they have more customers demanding their products, and the customers won't come until they have money to spend. The money ("demand") must come first. Adding money will not drive up prices until the economy is at full employment. Before that, increasing "demand" will drive up "supply" by setting the engines of production in motion. When supply and demand rise together, prices remain stable.
We now know that a government can go quite far into debt without a dangerous level of price inflation occurring - much farther than the U.S. has gone today. Besides World War II, when U.S. debt was 120% of GDP, there is the remarkable example of Japan. Japan has retained its status as the world's third largest economy, although it has a debt to GDP ratio of 226% -- and it is still fighting deflation.
Critics of the deflationary theory point to commodity prices, which are soaring today. But if those prices were due to the economy being awash with "too much money chasing too few goods," real estate prices would be soaring too. Instead, the real estate market has collapsed. What has actually happened is that the housing bubble has transmuted into the commodity bubble, as "hot money" has fled from one to the other. The overall money supply is still in decline.
The deficit hawks have been predicting for years that the federal debt would sink the dollar and the economy, and it hasn't happened yet. In fact the federal debt has not been paid off since 1835, and no disaster has resulted. The debt has not only been carried on the government's books but has continued to grow, and the economy has grown and flourished along with it.
This is not an economic anomaly. The economy has flourished because of the national debt. Nothing backs the currency today but "the full faith and credit of the United States." Money is no longer a metal; it is an inflow and outflow, credits and debits. The liabilities of the government are the assets of the private economy. The national debt is what backs the money supply.
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