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8 -- Some attention has been given to public warnings by prominent Israeli political, military and intelligence officials not to attack Iran. Their outspokenness betrays how seriously they view the danger that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may embark upon an adventure that could eventually result in the destruction of the state of Israel. But Netanyahu believes he still has the initiative and holds the high cards, which is certainly true with the U.S. political system.
9 -- As for Israel's generals, they will obey -- like their American counterparts.
10 -- There is ample evidence that Netanyahu believes Obama has a deficit of spine, and that if hostilities break out with Iran before the November election, Obama will feel obliged to give Israel unconditional support, including active military involvement. In my view, Netanyahu would be correct in that calculation.
11 -- Israel's strategic situation has markedly deteriorated over the past year, with former Mossad chief Meir Dagan describing it as "the worst in its history." Israel can no longer depend on close ties with Egypt or Turkey, and is becoming isolated elsewhere, as well. Developments in Egypt are a huge worry, with the Egyptians already having cancelled a major deal for the delivery of gas. This might increase Israel's incentive to have a tangible demonstration that the "sole remaining superpower," at least, remains firmly in its camp.
12 -- Military and intelligence ties between the U.S. and Israel are just as tight as those that enabled the successful Israeli air attack on Iraq's nuclear installation at Osirak in 1981. Just this month, Israel's friends in Congress beat back an effort by the Director of National Intelligence to strip the phrase "including satellite intelligence" from a list of security improvements in the U.S.-Israel Enhanced Security Cooperation Act of 2012.
13 -- Starting, or provoking, hostilities with Iran would be a huge, fateful gamble for Netanyahu, given Israel's vulnerability to Iranian retaliation and Washington's private counsels not to precipitate war. But if Israel went ahead anyway, my bet is that the U.S. military will be drawn in, even if Iran were careful to limit retaliation to Israeli targets.
14 -- On the nuclear issue, after the last three rounds of talks, it seems clear that the West will not even acknowledge our right under the Non-Proliferation Treaty to develop, produce and use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes without strict conditions. Rather, the West's "negotiating position" is almost identical to Netanyahu's maximal demands that we abandon our project for processing nuclear materials and dismantle key facilities.
15 -- The larger objective seems to be regime change by threats, sanctions, covert action and cyber attack -- with the prospect of worse to come.
16 -- To conclude, I would draw on some common American expressions: On the nuclear issue, we are damned if we do, and damned if we don't. Since there is a real chance we will be attacked at some point in the coming months, we need to batten down the hatches and keep our powder dry. It would be extremely foolish to hope for any significant break in U.S. hostility toward the Islamic Republic, at least until the very end of the year.
What Drives Israel?
I do not believe the Israelis see our nuclear program as an imminent threat, despite their having made the issue a cause cà ©là ¨bre, the centerpiece of their foreign policy and a live wire in today's American politics. The question is why; at least five objectives can be identified:
1 -- Overthrow of our Islamic Republic government (shades of 1953). The euphemism now in vogue is "regime change."
2 -- Create in Iran the kind of hardship, devastation or, if you prefer, obliteration that has degraded Iraq's ability, post-invasion, to support the Palestinians. A key part of Israel's strategy is to deplete the resources of supporters of Hezbollah and HAMAS and shut down their support systems.
Accordingly, even if hostilities resulted in something short of "regime change," Israel's close-in enemies would be greatly weakened and Israel would be in a strong position to dictate "peace terms" to the Palestinians -- and even encourage many of them to "self-deport," to use Mitt Romney's euphemism for ethnic cleansing of unwanted "aliens."
3 -- Divert attention from the stymied talks with the Palestinians, as Israeli settlers proceed apace to create more and more "facts on the ground" in the West Bank.
4 -- Set back Iran's uranium enrichment program a few years; and ...
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