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"Hell, No--We won't go! We won't fight for Texaco!!"

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Here again, it is unwise to get too far ahead of the evidence. It is, however, a bit strange that the leak would come to CNN from the Pentagon directly (who cited 'special services') rather than from the State Department. DoD is usually relegated to second fiddle in the propaganda matrix by the alleged 'civilians' at State, which has in recent decades become the nesting ground of the truly fanatical sociopaths of the neolibocon policy pitbulls.

Perhaps even stranger still is an analysis from an obscure (so far, at least in English) Russian blogger who has something of a bombshell conclusion. Why the noise from DoD instead of State, which seems almost like a generals' coup d'etat, trying to get the facts out before they are hushed up? Why did Kerry, that soulless, heartless f*ck, rush to call for a cease fire in the wake of this revelation?

Maybe it answers these and many more questions too neatly, which in my mind always renders analysis slightly suspect. Occam's Razor, after all, depends on who is doing the shaving. But if it turns out to be true it is truly astounding: the simple fact is that the Russians shot them down. No announcement, no fanfare. Just a simple, direct action to nip such a serious escalation in the bud. Um... no you don't. You're not going to be firing any f*cking ballistic missiles at our border.

'In Russian:

English translation first appeared here: Truth about situation in Ukraine

He goes on to explain that missiles did not hit any targets (because they were shot down), and that the reason Kerry rushed to the microphones is that this 'scared the sh*t out of the United States,' just as it did when the Russians did the same thing in Syria. The Russians won't announce it because they don't want to tip their hand, and the west doesn't want to admit to any impotence in the face of Russia militarily. He points out that, instead of goading or daring Russia to enter the war, the truth is actually the opposite, and Russia's direct involvement is the outcome desired least of all by the west. This is an analysis shared by many other observers (though I am a bit on the fence on this), who see the bogey man of an imminent WWIII as a sort of Fifth Column defeatism to prevent Russia from acting. I'm not sure how scared the US is of Russia--though it should be more so. But in the Syrian scenario at least he is completely correct. Practically lost to history, and deliberately obscured by policy pushers and liberals alike, it was the Russian shoot-down of two missiles over the Mediterranean that stopped the launch of a Libyan scenario for Syria dead in its tracks.

It was this--and only this--that gave the west pause, who understand absolutely no argument short of a credible military deterrent. The warmongers are loath to admit this, and the liberals along with a large swath of the First World left are desperate to cling to the fantasy of their own relevance, eager to believe that placards on parliament and letters to their Congressmen are actually capable of making the elites change their minds. Complete bullshit, and dangerously naïve, because it prevents the clarity of analysis and unity of purpose that connects all the individual struggles from Gaza to Syria to Venezuela to Ukraine. One struggle, one enemy.

As for the truth of the matter, it will be some time before we know. If all this smacks a bit of 'Welease the Secwet Weapon,' consider that the Syrian analogy is on point: they have done exactly this before, in the face of an almost identical chronology of chaos: proxy army, false flag, relentless demonizing, unprecedented barbarism, and eventually, escalation to open war by ballistic missile until squelched by Russia. Reports have surfaced on social media with pictures purporting to show fragments of unexploded ballistic warhead, suggesting that it might either have been a dud or was destroyed before exploding over any target. Is this proof? Hardly. And I am skeptical at feeling too much hope that the snarling dogs of the hegemon could be brought to heel so quickly.

But it would also explain why Russia has been so cautious, almost laid back in its approach to Ukraine, drawing the ire and searing criticism of many of us on the front lines of the infowar. Not smug, exactly, but looking for the right time to send just the right signal. Absent a quick military victory, all the empire can do is sow misery and chaos, and while these are quite enough to cause suffering for many people, they will not deter Russia and China. The sanctions are a complete joke, like a stern schoolmarm with no authority. Worse, they are already having precisely the opposite effect of that intended, forcing Russia into a closer alliance, politically, economically, and increasingly militarily and culturally, with China and much of the Global South--a result warmly welcomed by those of us fed up with US imperial hegemony.

If this last bit turns out to be true, and Russia's ABM tech is actually this advanced, it would be more than just a surprise. It will be the Big Enchilada, the Sorcerer's Stone, the greatest of Changers of Games. And the Ukies' ballistic missiles? Well, they might turn out to be just one big BM (the other kind). Here's hoping.

(c) 2014 Daniel Patrick Welch. Reprint permission granted with credit and link to Political analyst, writer, linguist and activist Daniel Patrick Welch lives and writes in Salem, Massachusetts, with his wife, Julia Nambalirwa-Lugudde. Together they run The Greenhouse School. Welch has also appeared in numerous television and radio interviews, and can be available for comment and analysis as his day job permits.

Translations of articles are available in in up to 30 languages. Links to the website are appreciated.

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(c) 2014 Daniel Patrick Welch. Reprint permission granted with credit and link to Political analyst, writer, linguist and activist Daniel Patrick Welch lives and writes in Salem, Massachusetts, with his wife. Together (more...)

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