If you've been around this site for awhile, you know I said last year that the big stock market plunge in September-October of 2014 marked the end of the bull market. I said, you'd see that play out throughout 2015, and you have. Hindsight now verifies that the US stock market has bounced hectically sideways along an obvious ceiling ever since. The slope of the bull is long gone.
Why should it have been obvious that 2015 would go this way? Anyone understanding economic fundamentals should be able to see that the "recovery" is a mirage created by TRILLIONS of dollars of free money -- a mirage that would, therefore, fall apart when the free money stopped that was sustaining it because nothing has been done to establish an economy built on anything other than endless mountains debt as its foundation, which was the cause of the initial economic collapse that we called "The Great Recession."
Almost-free money continues under the Fed's zero-interest program. So, when the Fed raises interest next week -- a nearly certain likelihood -- the remainder of support to the bubblistic, mirage economy falls away. The false recovery vanishes once the wizard's magic ends. I have said for years now that the illusory recovery is completely unsustainable because our only solution to the Great Recession has been to prop up the old dying regime as long as we could to milk it for all its worth.
When the government reacted to the Great Recession many years ago, I used the metaphor of a snow plow, which is supposed to angle its blade to push the snow off to the side, not push it straight ahead. I pointed out that, if you push the snow straight ahead, it piles up until the snow plow is no longer able to push it. That, I have said all along is all we are doing -- just pushing our mountains of debt higher and higher ahead of ourselves as our sole answer. ("Kicking the can down the road," as congress often said (and did).) 2015 is the year the snow plows lost traction. That's all you've heard all year is the screech of spinning tires. The end of 2015 is the time the epocalypse begins -- a great economic collapse that will ultimately lead to global economic transformation because a global crisis will seem to demand global solutions.
What is truly needed is freedom from the addiction to and bondage of debt along with justice brought against colossal greed, instead of bailouts. That is one global answer that would work -- a biblical "Year of Jubilee," in which all debts are dissolved everywhere in the world -- a global reboot that ends the tyranny of the 1%.
That would be a move for justice against the stockpilers of greed. You'd lose much of your retirement fund, but you'd also lose your mortgage and all other debts; and you're likely to lose much of your retirement fund in the days ahead anyway, unless you move your money to cash, and even that has some peril. A "Year of Jubilee" would reset the whole playing field on a level plane.
It won't happen.
Instead, we'll see global answers that keep the majority of the world indebted to the minority and that consolidate the power of those already in power. You'll see a loss of human freedoms in the face of anarchy and terrorism. Today's people will readily give up their freedom in exchange for a sense of security. Gone are the days when brave souls gave up their own lives to assure human freedoms for others. Here are the days in which people will give up their own freedoms in order to assure their own lives.
That, however, is writing for another time. It is too soon right now to say such things, as people have not seen the epocaplyse that will change the world. They don't believe in it; therefore, it seems too dismal by present measures to imagine such surrender of freedom is possible, much less likely. Nevertheless, that is the trend I see, but the first measure of the accuracy of that insight will be whether the epocaplyse comes this year, as I have maintained all year long it will. If I'm wrong, I'll go away, as the world does not need dismal people, but one is not dismal if he is simply right. In that case, he cannot help that the truth is bleak. Better to see it for what is than to be blindsided by it.
The epocalypse has already begun in most of the world. Look for it to materialize in the US next week as the Fed raises interest. In fact, look for it to materialize even if the Fed does NOT raise interest. The Fed is now damned if it does and damned if it doesn't. Their magic has ended. Because the entire market is now anticipating the Fed will raise interest, based on the Fed's own telegraphed messages, the Fed will send shock waves through the market if it does not follow through. If the Fed cannot raise interest even when all of its job gauges are where it said it wants them, that would say to many people that the Fed doesn't believe in its own recovery either.
I am certain, however, that the Fed does believe in its false recovery, and am confident it will end its stimulus with the worst possible timing. That's why I've predicted unflinchingly that the US stock market will crash this fall. The global economic collapse that I also predicted for this year, is clearly already happening; but for US citizens, it will take a stock-market crash to convince them that the end is here.
While JP Morgan and Citi were finally smart enough last week to put the likelihood of a US recession at 65% (after years of talking about "recovery" as if it were happening), they were also safe enough in hedging their prediction to give that a three-year time frame for happening. You can find much better precision and courage here. I'm stating a higher likelihood with a window now of one week. I'm not hedging my bets. Of course, it will take months to play out; but you'll see the dramatic shift begin before fall has ended.
2015 was a year of moving sideways after the bull market ended. 2016 will be a long year of decline with many plunges along with some brief phantom rallies.
You've got little time left to secure your financial positions. After this week, things will change rapidly enough that you may not be able to get ahead of the wall of water that will be coming your way. Get as safely out of the way now as you can and watch it unfold from a position that is out of the way.
This is likely to be my final warning. After this, I'll be writing about how it happened.
For more articles on this topic: thegreatrecession.info/blog/tag/epocalypse/
(Article changed on December 15, 2015 at 08:52)