What if a break-out of nuclear weaponry and use by Iran occurs in its conflict with Israel, which itself has nuclear weapons?
Consider China and Taiwan. This month the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists published an extensive analysis titled "Chinese nuclear weapons, 2024." It began: "China has significantly expanded its ongoing nuclear modernization program by fielding more types and greater numbers of nuclear weapons than ever before".China's nuclear expansion is among the largest and most rapid modernizations campaigns of the nine nuclear-armed states." This follows reports in The New York Times of China expanding its nuclear arsenal.
I've been to China as a member for 20 years of the Commission on Disarmament Education, Conflict Resolution and Peace of the United Nations and International Association of University Presidents and it's long been clear that China is committed to taking Taiwan.
If the China-Taiwan situation escalates to war, bringing in the United States, which has building up its military in the Pacific because, it says, of China-- would it become nuclear war?
As to Russia and Ukraine, the nuclear threats by Putin and his associates continue. This month Dmitry Medvedev, former president of Russia and now deputy chairman its Security Council, "warned," according to Reuters, "that any Ukrainian attacks on missile launch sites inside Russia with arms supplied by the United States and its allies would risk a nuclear response from Russia."
"Putin," said Reuters, "is the decision-maker when it comes to Russia's vast nuclear arsenal, but diplomats say Medvedev's views give an indication of hawkish thinking at the top of the Kremlin which has cast the war as an existential struggle with the west."
Noted the Reuters account: "Russia and the United States are by far the world's biggest nuclear powers: Putin controls 5,889 nuclear warheads while U.S. President Joe Biden controls about 5,244 nuclear warheads."
Meanwhile, the organization Beyond Nuclear (I'm on its board) ran an article on its Beyond Nuclear International website this month headlined: "'Steadfast Noon' spells doom." Its subhead: "US prepared for nuclear war at foreign bases." The article was written by John LaForge, co-director of the organization Nukewatch.
It told of how in October 2023, "the alliance" supporting Ukraine in its war with Russia "began its annual nuclear attack rehearsal dubbed 'Steadfast Noon.' This practice involves air forces from 13 countries, the 'exercising' of fighter jets and U.S. B-52s [which] roared over Italy, Croatia and the eastern Mediterranean." It quoted NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg saying: "Our exercise will help to ensure the credibility, effectiveness and security of our nuclear deterrent."
"This," wrote LaForge, "is shrewd, silk tie talk about threatening nuclear attacks, threats barely distinguishable from Russia's verbal warnings. Mr. Stoltenberg dared to add, that the "fundamental purpose of NATO's nuclear capability is to preserve peace, prevent coercion and deter aggression."
LaForge quoted from the declared mission online of the U.S. Air Force Nuclear College at Ramstein Air Base that it "is responsible for delivering, sustaining and supporting air-delivered nuclear weapon systems for our warfighters"every day."
Meanwhile, the U.S. is in the midst of a nuclear weapons "modernization" program. Notes the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation: "The United States plans to spend up to $1.5 trillion over 30 years to its nuclear arsenal by rebuilding each leg of the nuclear triad and its accompanying infrastructure. The plans include, but are not limited to, a new class of ballistic missile submarines, a new set of silo-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, a new nuclear cruise missile, a modify gravity bomb, a new stealthy long-range strike bomber, and accompanying warheads"for each delivery system."
The good news: the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons has been enacted, taken force and is moving forward. This month an additional two nations ratified it. The treaty, providing a legally binding agreement to prohibit nuclear weapons, leading to their total elimination, was adopted by the UN General Assembly-- with 122 nations in favor-- in 2017. The treaty bans the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons.
"Let's eliminate these weapons before they eliminate us," Secretary-General Guterres has said of the treaty, an initiative "toward our shared goal of a world free of nuclear weapons."
Leading in the drive for the treaty has been the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN). As it declares on its website: "Nuclear weapons are the most inhumane and indiscriminate weapons ever created. They violate international law, cause severe environmental damage, undermine national and global security, and divert vast public resources away from meeting human needs. They must be eliminated urgently."
A big problem: the so-called "nuclear weapons states" including the U.S., Russia, China, France and Great Britain have not signed on to the treaty.
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