Article: Customizing Truth

It is simply not true, as the ODNI leaders seem to assert, that U.S. intelligence agency personnel cannot tell, more often than not, that they are being lied to. This is the case because there are thousands of middle-echelon intelligence workers, desk officers, and specialists who know something closely approaching the truth -- that is, they know pretty well what is going on in places like Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Israel, Palestine and elsewhere. Therefore, if someone feeds them "snake oil" they usually know it. However, having an accurate grasp of things is often to no avail because their superiors -- those who got their appointments by accepting a pre-structured worldview -- have different criterion for what is "true" than do the analysts.

Listen to Charles Gaukel, of the National Intelligence Council -- yet another organization that acts as a meeting ground for the 16 intelligence agencies. Referring to the the search for a way to avoid getting taken in by lies, Mr. Gaukel has declared, "We're looking for truth. But we're particularly looking for truth that works." Now what might that mean?

I can certainly tell you what it means historically. It means that for the power brokers, "truth" must match up, fit with, their worldview -- their political and ideological precepts. If it does not fit, it does not "work." So the intelligence specialists who send their usually accurate assessments up the line to the policy makers often hit a roadblock caused by group-think, ideological blinkers, and a "we know better" attitude. On the other hand, as long as what you're selling the leadership matches up with what they want to believe, you can peddle them anything: imaginary Iraqi nukes, Israel as a Western-style democracy, Saudi Arabia as an indispensable ally, Libya as a liberated country, Bashar al-Assad as the real roadblock to peace in Syria, the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) aka Star Wars, a world that is getting colder and not warmer, American exceptionalism in all its glory -- the list is almost endless. Part IV -- Conclusion What does this sad tale tell us? If you want to spend millions of dollars on social and behavioral science research to improve the assessment and use of intelligence, forget about the liars. What you want to look for is an antidote to the narrow-mindedness of the believers -- the policymakers who seem not to be able raise above the ideological presumptions of their class -- presumptions that underpin their self-confidence as they lead us all down slippery slopes. It has happened this way so often, and in so many places, that it is the source of Shakespeare's determination that "what is past, is prelude." Our elites play out our destines as if they have no free will -- no capacity to break with structured ways of seeing. Yet the middle-echelon specialists keep sending their relatively accurate assessments up the ladder of power. Hope springs eternal.

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