The rising tide of foreclosures, bankruptcies and so-called "strategic defaults" where homeowners just stop paying mortgages on homes worth less than their associated liability, has become a well-recognized phenomenon.
About ThatUnemployment Rate ".
The picture in the job market does not offer much consolation either. After topping 10% in the last three months of 2009, the unemployment rate in the United States retreated to 9.7% in January, and holding steady - slightly better than expected.
Nevertheless, economists said that an exodus of discouraged workers from the job market has kept the U.S. unemployment rate from climbing above 10%, and the actual unemployment rate is higher than reported by the official numbers.
20% Under-employed
Moreover, what is not in the headlines is that near one in five, or about 30 million Americans are under-employed.
The BLS under-employment rate (U-6) in February 16.8% seasonally adjusted was among the highest rates that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has recorded since it started tracking the statistic in 1994. A recent Gallup poll puts the figure at almost 20%.
A Decade Low Employment Level
Even more telling is the ADP National Employment Report. The national employment level is at a decade low as indicated by data from both ADP and BLS ((See Chart from ADP). Meanwhile, the U.S. Employment to Population Ratio also dipped to the lowest level, at 57.9% in February, not seen since 1984.
The Old Normal = 10 Million New Jobs
Analysts estimate returning to pre-recession employment levels and keeping up with working-age population growth will require the creation of 10 million or more jobs. Under the administration's own estimate, the economy will create an average of just 95,000 jobs a month this year; that's far from enough to make much of a difference in the jobless landscape.
". And Beyond 2015
Generally it takes a 2 percentage point rise in the GDP above a "normal" level (about 2.5%) to drive the jobless rate down each single percentage point. Taking into consideration of the current near 10% unemployment level and the GDP growth generally forecast at a slower pace of 2% to 3%, it could take five or more years for employment to get back to prerecession 2007 levels.
Moody's Economy.com also expects the unemployment rate to resume rising over the next few months, "peaking near 10.5% in the third quarter, " while Standard & Poor's said a return to the pre-recession employment rate is unlikely until 2015 at the earliest.
Housing Not Bottomed Yet
The housing market is yet to revive as many analysts predict a further price drop. The latest pending home sale data, a leading indicator, suggests weakness still in the housing market. According to the National Association of Realtors, the number of contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes fell 7.6% in January.
About ThatUnemployment Rate ".
The picture in the job market does not offer much consolation either. After topping 10% in the last three months of 2009, the unemployment rate in the United States retreated to 9.7% in January, and holding steady - slightly better than expected.
Nevertheless, economists said that an exodus of discouraged workers from the job market has kept the U.S. unemployment rate from climbing above 10%, and the actual unemployment rate is higher than reported by the official numbers.
Moreover, what is not in the headlines is that near one in five, or about 30 million Americans are under-employed.
The BLS under-employment rate (U-6) in February 16.8% seasonally adjusted was among the highest rates that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has recorded since it started tracking the statistic in 1994. A recent Gallup poll puts the figure at almost 20%.
A Decade Low Employment Level
Even more telling is the ADP National Employment Report. The national employment level is at a decade low as indicated by data from both ADP and BLS ((See Chart from ADP). Meanwhile, the U.S. Employment to Population Ratio also dipped to the lowest level, at 57.9% in February, not seen since 1984.
The Old Normal = 10 Million New Jobs
Analysts estimate returning to pre-recession employment levels and keeping up with working-age population growth will require the creation of 10 million or more jobs. Under the administration's own estimate, the economy will create an average of just 95,000 jobs a month this year; that's far from enough to make much of a difference in the jobless landscape.
". And Beyond 2015
Generally it takes a 2 percentage point rise in the GDP above a "normal" level (about 2.5%) to drive the jobless rate down each single percentage point. Taking into consideration of the current near 10% unemployment level and the GDP growth generally forecast at a slower pace of 2% to 3%, it could take five or more years for employment to get back to prerecession 2007 levels.
Moody's Economy.com also expects the unemployment rate to resume rising over the next few months, "peaking near 10.5% in the third quarter, " while Standard & Poor's said a return to the pre-recession employment rate is unlikely until 2015 at the earliest.
Housing Not Bottomed Yet
The housing market is yet to revive as many analysts predict a further price drop. The latest pending home sale data, a leading indicator, suggests weakness still in the housing market. According to the National Association of Realtors, the number of contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes fell 7.6% in January.
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