6. Western regimes overestimated the influence of the liberal elite and underestimated the popularity of Islamist and nationalist movements
Reacting to the results of the elections in Egypt, an Egypt expert told the Washington Post (on December 1) that "in the end, the liberal groups are not popular and not organized." For years, western commentators argued that in fair and transparent elections, Islamists would not fare well. Although that theory was debunked twice in Iraq under the watch of American troops when Sunni and Shi'i parties outlasted the well-funded secular ones led by Allawi and Chalebi, many continue to argue that the Islamists' gains can be explained by the fact that the secular parties did not have enough time to prepare. Western politicians (from the left and right) have a curious expectation of the Islamic world. In their eyes, Muslims must all embrace liberal and secular ideas, to the exclusion of religious ideals. Domestically, however, these Western liberals and conservatives are not alarmed by the rise of religious and conservative politicians. The "shellacking" the Democrats received in 2010 U.S. midterm elections when they lost the House to conservative Republicans can be easily explained away. But the persistence of conservatism in Islamic society alarms them.
The elections in Tunisia, Morocco, and Egypt ought to humble those who hold this double standard. They ought to admit that their attitude is partly to blame for the lack of popularity of liberal and secular groups in Islamic societies. They must have faith in the transformative power of choice that people exert after being faced with brute force that strips them of their dignity and self-respect. The Tunisian, Moroccan, and Egyptian voters are giving the Islamists and centrists a chance to restore their hope in a dignified future. If they work for that, we all ought to support it.
* Prof. SOUAIAIA teaches at the University of Iowa. He is the author of Politics of Appearances . Opinions expressed herein are the author's, speaking as a citizen on matters of public interest; not speaking for the university or any other organization with which he is affiliated.
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