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A Look At Clinton And Trump's Promises To Spend To Boost Economy

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Dave Johnson
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"The plan also included several threats against China, the world's second-largest economy. Echoing his past comments, Trump vowed to label China a currency manipulator and to bring trade cases against Beijing both in the U.S. and at the World Trade Organization.

"'If China does not stop its illegal activities, including its theft of American trade secrets, I will use every lawful presidential power to remedy trade disputes, including the application of tariffs,' Trump said."

Fox Business News continues beyond trade and China, citing Trump's convention speech, in "'America First': Donald Trump Touts Jobs Plan in RNC Speech":

"Trump's comments on the economy also included a promise of tax reform. The longtime businessman said the tax code will be simplified and middle-income Americans will see their rates cut. Businesses will also see tax relief, he said. The top federal corporate tax rate is 35 percent, one of the highest in the world.

"Excessive regulation costs the U.S. as much as $2 trillion annually, he said. Trump specifically pledged to lift restrictions on the production of American energy. Clinton, he said, will pursue regulations that hurt coal miners and steel workers.

"'We will build the roads, highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, and the railways of tomorrow. This, in turn, will create millions more jobs,' Trump said."

Trump's website does not explain any details of plans to "build the roads, highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, and the railways of tomorrow." However, it does mention building a wall.

Trump's "tax reform" plan is basically huge tax cuts for the highest incomes; eliminating inheritance taxes entirely; huge, huge tax cuts from 35 percent to 15 percent for corporations; no taxes on profits corporations make outside of the country and rewarding tax-dodgers with a huge break from 35 percent to 10 percent on the taxes companies already owe for non-U.S. profits that they have been holding outside of the country.

Trump also say he will "eliminate job-killing regulations" but does not specify which regulations he means. His website does not explain.

Analysis

Clinton's plan focuses on infrastructure and manufacturing, with a side dish of changing the way we do trade deals and ramping up enforcement of existing deals. Trump's plan focuses on undoing trade deals and applying tariffs, giving tax breaks to the wealthy and corporations, with a side dish of promises to improve infrastructure.

Fixing "trade" would over time bring back a lot of jobs, but only over a longer term. Unfortunately our trade policies have damaged our manufacturing ecosystem to the point that a massive investment would be required to bring back much of the manufacturing that has moved to low-wage countries.

There is no evidence that tax cuts promote economic growth, but obviously they do result in deficits and debt. There is also evidence that tax cuts aggravate inequality.

However, public investment in maintaining and modernizing our infrastructure would have a much quicker effect. People would be hired almost immediately upon funding and this would accelerate as more infrastructure projects come online -- and accelerate further as economic efficiencies result from completion of these infrastructure projects.

Meanwhile Mark Zandi, a widely respected independent economic forecaster and former adviser to Sen. John McCain during his presidential campaign has analyzed the Clinton and Trump economic plans. The Clinton plan analysis results say that the economy would create 10.4 million jobs (3.2 million of these additional to current trendlines) with Clinton's plans in four years. The Trump results say his plan would result in 3.4 million fewer jobs than expected under current trendlines.

Zandi writes that during Clinton's presidency, "the economy would create 10.4 million jobs, 3.2 million more than under current law. Unemployment is also lower, with the unemployment rate falling as low as 3.7 percent in the middle of her term, and ending her presidency in 2020 at 4.4 percent."

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Dave has more than 20 years of technology industry experience. His earlier career included technical positions, including video game design at Atari and Imagic. He was a pioneer in design and development of productivity and educational (more...)
 

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