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It is the old story about the losing gambler: he cannot stop. He continues to play, in order to win his losses back. He continues to lose and continues to gamble, until he has lost everything: his ranch, his wife, his shirt.
The same thing happens in the biggest gamble of all: war. The leaders that start a war and get stuck in the mud are compelled to fight their way ever deeper into the mud. That is a part of the very essence of war: it is impossible to stop after a failure. Public opinion demands the promised victory. Incompetent generals need to cover up their failure. Military commentators and other armchair strategists demand a massive offensive. Cynical politicians are riding the wave. The government is carried away by the flood that they themselves have let loose.
That is what happened this week, following the battle of Bint-Jbail, which the Arabs have already started to call proudly Nasrallahgrad. All over Israel the cry goes up: get into it! Quicker! Further! Deeper!
A day after the bloody battle, the cabinet decided on a massive mobilization of the reserves. What for? The ministers do not know. But it does not depend on them any more, nor on the generals. The political and military leadership is tossed about on the waves of war like a boat without a rudder.
As has been said before: it is much easier to start a war than to finish one. The cabinet believes that it controls the war, but in reality it is the war that controls them. They have mounted a tiger, and can't be sure of getting off without being torn to pieces.
War has its own rules. Unexpected things happen and dictate the next moves. And the next moves tend to be in one direction: escalation.
Israeli Chief of Staff Dan Halutz, the father of this war, thought that he could eliminate Hezbollah by means of the air force, the most sophisticated, most efficient, and the generally most-most air force in the world. A few days of massive pounding, thousands of tons of bombs on neighborhoods, roads, electricity works and ports �" and that's it.
Well, that wasn't it, as it turned out. The Hezbollah rockets continued to land in the north of Israel, hundreds a day. The public cried out. There was no way round a ground operation. First, small, elite units were put in. That did not help. Then brigades were deployed. And now whole divisions are demanded.
First, they wanted to annihilate the Hezbollah positions along the border. When it was seen that that was not enough, it was decided to conquer the hills that dominate the border. There, the Hezbollah fighters were waiting and caused heavy casualties. And the rockets continued to fly.
Now the generals are convinced that there is no alternative to occupying the whole area up to the Litani River, about 15 miles from the border, in order to prevent the rockets from being launched from there. Then they will find out that they have to reach the Awali River, 25 miles inside �" the famous 25 miles Menachem Begin talked about in 1982.
And then? The Israeli army will be extended over a large area, and everywhere it will be exposed to guerrilla attacks, of the sort Hezbollah excels in. And the missiles will continue to fly.
What next? One cannot stop. Public opinion will demand more decisive moves. Political demagogues will shout. Commentators will grumble. The people in the shelters will cry out. The generals will feel the heat. One cannot keep tens of thousands of reserve soldiers mobilized indefinitely. It is impossible to prolong a situation that paralyzes a third of the country.
Everybody will clamor to storm forwards. Where to? Toward Beirut in the north? Or toward Damascus, in the east?
The cabinet ministers recite in unison: No! Never ever! We shall not attack Syria!
Perhaps some of them really don't intend to. They do not dream of a war with Syria. Definitely not. But the ministers only delude themselves when they believe that they control the war. The war controls them.
When it becomes clear that nothing is helping, that Hezbollah goes on fighting and the rockets continue to fly, the political and military leadership will face bankruptcy. They will need to pin the blame on somebody. On who? Well, on Syrian President Bashar Assad, of course.
Uri Avnery is a longtime Israeli peace activist. Since 1948 has advocated the setting up of a Palestinian state alongside Israel. In 1974, Uri Avnery was the first Israeli to establish contact with PLO leadership. In 1982 he was the first Israeli ever to meet Yassir Arafat, after crossing the lines in besieged Beirut. He served three terms in the Israeli Parliament (Knesset), and is the founder of Gush Shalom (Peace Bloc). Visit his Website.
Permission to use your article A Nice Little War Gets Out of
Hi Uri,
While writing a book titled 'Wondering Man, Money & Go(l)d'; I have referred quite a few articles with due credit to authors and sources.
However when I check back now, I see I have missed taking your permission only. I can't explain how (only possibility is as I myself also do write in OpEdNews, I felt getting the required permission from you would be easy; and then it might have missed my mind when I wanted to send a Thank You note to all who granted me that permission. True, barring one, no one said 'No' to my permission requests). My sincere apologies now because without obtaining the required permission, I have used your article (with due credits anyway), and now it's up in Amazon and Google Books.
I am looking forward to your consent mail which would clear me off this slip I had.
Best regards,
Ranjit Goswami
esearch Scholar, IIT Kharagpur, India
My book in Amazon: Wondering Man, Money & Go(l)d at click here
by
Ranjit Goswami (2 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 1 comments)
on Thursday, April 12, 2007 at 12:11:35 AM
It is easy for me. I can call for peace in a quiet Scottish village where there are no people shouting for war anyway. I am surrounded by pacifists and people who support me.
Mr Avnery is in a minority and is subjected ,I guess, to harrassment on a daily basis.
It is easy for me
by
Hamish (45 articles, 0 quicklinks, 68 diaries, 210 comments)
on Tuesday, August 1, 2006 at 8:44:00 PM
There's an acute dearth in true global statemanship.
Great article. It indeed 'is much easier to start a war than to finish one', more so now with the rockets and the missiles and the aerial bombings. I could not understand meaning of �" (association/company?).
Unfortunately they don't gamble with their money, shirts. They rather gamble with our money, houses, wives, children.
by
Ranjit Goswami (5 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 3 comments)
on Tuesday, August 1, 2006 at 11:39:45 PM
�" was a download error for the hyphen symbol " - ". The sentence properly reads, "That is nothing to be ashamed of. Our army is in good - or, rather, bad - company. " It has been corrected. Thank you for bringing it to my attention.
by
Amanda Lang (22 articles, 13578 quicklinks, 431 diaries, 577 comments)
on Wednesday, August 2, 2006 at 12:47:53 PM
I can't seem to reach Uri through any of the links provided by Rob.
I am the editor of a new (since March) progressive news and opinion magazine based in Colorado. I would very much like to reprint your article "A Nice Little War..." in our September issue.
We reprint articles from a number of OpEdNews contributors -- I am one myself. I've been looking for someone to write about the Middle East without being anti-Israel.
We can't pay anything (yet), but we'll send you copies of the magazine. You can see our July issue at thecommunityreview.info.
I hope you will consider joining our family of contributors.
Lynn Hirshman
editor@thecommunityreview.info
by
Lynn Hirshman (2 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 24 comments)
on Thursday, August 3, 2006 at 12:36:27 PM
Why is it that any critical comment about Israel's actions is always taken as anti Israel? It is a positive thing to want other nations to do the right thing, and to point out what they are doing wrong. I want the best for Israel, and that is to stop indiscriminate killing in the Middle East, begin a dialogue with all parties concerned in the conflict, and put the common good of all Middle East peoples first instead of selfishly demanding to have their own way. It seems to me that they have become addicted to violence. The Bush admin. is only causing more grief by taking Israel's side, they need to stay impartial to be honest brokers of peace. Yet the US congress gives Israel unqualified support to destroy Lebanon and kill hundreds of its people, and this makes them enablers of the bloodshed. I cannot find one honest person in the US gov't who truly cares about the Lebanese and Palestinians, but only pay lip-service to caring. Until the common good of all human beings are put above the welfare of a few wealthy nations, there will be no abiding peace.
by
Regina Carpenter (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 38 comments)
on Thursday, August 3, 2006 at 4:36:30 PM
6 comments
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