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A Nice Little War Gets Out of Hand
By Uri Avnery (about the author) Page 2 of 3 page(s)
How is it possible that a small "terror organization," with a few thousand fighters altogether, goes on fighting? Where do they get the arms from? The finger will point toward Syria.
Even now, the army commanders assert that new rockets are flowing all the time from Syria to Hezbollah. True, the roads have been bombed, the bridges destroyed, but the arms somehow continue to arrive. The Israeli government demands that an international force be stationed not only along the Israeli-Lebanese border, but on the Lebanese-Syrian border, too. The queue of volunteers will not be long.
Then the generals will demand the bombing of roads and bridges inside Syria. For that, the Syrian air force will have to be neutralized. In short, a real war, with implications for the whole Middle East.
Ehud Olmert and Israeli Defense Minister Amir Peretz did not think about that when they decided three weeks ago in haste and lightheartedly, without serious debate, without examining other options, without calculating the risks, to attack Hezbollah. For politicians who do not know what war is, it was an irresistible temptation: there was a clear provocation by Hezbollah, international support was assured, what a wonderful opportunity! They would do what even Sharon did not dare.
Dan Halutz submitted an offer that could not be refused. A nice little war. Military plans were ready and well rehearsed. Certain victory. The more so, since on the other side there was no real enemy army, just a "terror organization."
How hotly the desire was burning in the hearts of Olmert and Peretz is attested by the fact that they did not even think about the lack of shelters in the northern Israeli towns, not to mention the far-reaching economic and social implications. The main thing was to rush in and gather the laurels.
They had no time to think seriously about the war aim. Now they resemble archers who shoot their arrows at a blank sheet and then draw the rings around the arrow. The aims change daily: to destroy Hezbollah, to disarm them, to drive them out of south Lebanon, and perhaps just to "weaken" them. To kill Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. To bring the captured soldiers home. To extend the sovereignty of the Lebanese government over all of Lebanon. To establish a new-old security zone occupied by Israel. To deploy the Lebanese army and/or an international force along the border. To rehabilitate deterrence. To imprint into the consciousness of Hezbollah. (Our generals love imprinting into consciousnesses. That is a wonderfully safe aim, because it cannot be measured.)
The more the nice little war continues, the clearer it becomes that these changing aims are not realistic. The Lebanese ruling group does not represent anybody but a small, rich, and corrupt elite. The Lebanese army cannot and will not fight Hezbollah. The new "security zone" will be exposed to guerrilla attacks, and the international force will not enter the area without the agreement of Hezbollah. And this guerrilla force, Hezbollah, the Israeli army cannot vanquish.
That is nothing to be ashamed of. Our army is in good - or, rather, bad - company. The term "guerrilla" ("small war") was coined in Spain, during the occupation of the country by Napoleon. Irregular bands of Spanish fighters attacked the occupiers and beat them. The same happened to the Russians in Afghanistan, to the French in Algeria, to the British in Palestine and a dozen other colonies, to the Americans in Vietnam, and is happening to them now in Iraq. Even assuming that Dan Halutz and Udi Adam are greater commanders than Napoleon and his marshals, they will not succeed where those failed.
When Napoleon did not know what to do next, he invaded Russia. If we don't stop the operation, it will lead us to war with Syria.
Condoleezza Rice's stubborn struggle against any attempt to stop the war shows that this is indeed the aim of the United States. From the first day of George Bush's presidency, the neoconservatives have been calling for the elimination of Syria. The deeper Bush sinks into the Iraqi quagmire, the more he needs to divert attention with another adventure.
By the way: one day before the outbreak of this war, the Israeli minister of national infrastructures, Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, took part in the inauguration ceremony of the big pipeline that will conduct oil from the huge Caspian Sea reserves to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, just next to the Syrian border. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline avoids Russia and passes through Azerbaijan and Georgia, two countries closely aligned with Israel, like Turkey itself. There is a plan to bring a part of the oil from there along the Syrian and Lebanese coast to Ashkelon, where an existing pipeline will conduct it to Eilat, to be exported to the Far East. Israel and Turkey are to secure the area for the United States.
Must the sliding into a war with Syria happen? Is there no alternative?
Of course there is. To stop now, at once.
When President Lyndon Johnson felt that he was sinking into the morass of Vietnam, he asked his friends for advice. One of them answered with five words: "Declare victory and get out!"
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