Contribution to the debate on "Russophobia" between Andrei Tsygankov ( click here ) and Andreas Umland ( click here ).
I agree with Tsygankov that the propaganda war between Russia and the West reflects a real conflict of material great power interests, although many of the foot soldiers in this war are no doubt perfectly sincere in their concern for human rights, democracy, and so forth. But I would like to clarify what I see as the essential nature of the great power conflict.
Yeltsin enjoyed the full support and indulgence of Western ruling circles not because he was such a great democrat but because he obeyed the dictates of the IMF, allowed Western "advisers" to take control of domestic economic policy, and kept Russia open to Western capital as an export market and field for investment. When keeping Russia on this course seemed to require firm action, they encouraged Yeltsin to stage a coup and shoot up his own parliament. So much for democracy!
At this time it appeared that Russia was going to be absorbed into the brave new world of capitalist globalization as one local administration among many others at the beck and call of supra-national Western capital. In this context it was possible to indulge Russian pretensions to a sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space. After all, what difference did it make if all the post-Soviet countries were to be open to the "globalizers" in any case?
Putin has, in essence, withdrawn Russia from globalization and established national capitalism, based on an alliance between the state and "patriotic" oligarchs, as master in its own house. Conditions have been created for Russian firms to compete on the home market and the role of foreign capital in key fields of investment has been drastically curtailed.
So now there is a real question about the position of Ukraine, Belarus, the Southern Caucasus, etc. Will they be extensions of the newly independent Russian market or will their ties with Russia be severed in order to facilitate their globalization? The conflict of interests in this zone has become much clearer.
Looking to the future, it must be borne in mind that the US is quite incapable of sustaining the global role it has assigned to itself. For some decades the US has been a declining power in relative terms. This is a long-term trend. The contrary impression caused by the collapse of the Soviet Union was largely an illusion, because the decline of the US has little to do with whatever happens in Russia: it is a function of the rise of Europe, Japan, China, India, etc.
The US decline is now accelerating. It could have been spread out over a longer period, but Bush in his wisdom decided to act in such a way as to accelerate it. The dollar is rapidly losing its position as the world's trading and reserve currency. Together with the massive and still growing national debt, this is right now triggering a recession on a scale unseen in the postwar era. Nor is it only a matter of a bankrupt economy. The long-neglected domestic infrastructure (bridges, etc.) will be undergoing progressive collapse. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have already exhausted and demoralized most of the army, and if Iran too is invaded that is sure to finish the job.
So however self-deluded some US politicians may be, they will have no choice in the matter. They will be forced by events to abandon the dream of globalization and world power and pull back from all areas of the world except those they regard as most vital (which does not include Russia or the former USSR) -- and perhaps even from those. "Russophobia" will no longer be relevant. They will have many much more pressing things to worry about than Russia (actually they already do).
So in the unlikely event that the Russian rulers and those who advise them were to ask for my advice, I would say this. Stay calm. Play for time. If together with China you can deter Bush from attacking Iran in the next few months, many people throughout the world will be greatly beholden to you. By this time next year you may well be facing a very different US -- much chastened, much less cocky, much more inward-looking (a very suitable orientation in the circumstances). It is high time to start giving serious thought to what the "post-American" world will be like and how we are going to cope with its problems.
Dr. Stephen Shenfield is author of, among other books, Russian Fascism (M.E. Sharpe 2001), and editor of the "Research & Analytical Supplement" to Johnson's Russia List.
[This comment was first circulated via Johnson's Russia List 2008-#70 on April 7th, 2008.]
I agree with this posting. (not the previous comment)
Putin knows that his country has a window in which to establish its bonafides as a player, and being carved up into spheres of influence and being controlled from Wall St. and its satellites is not what they want to have happen.
I also applaud the plea to Putin/Medvedev to do their best to thwart a Cheney/Bush attack on Iran.
JB
by
James Brett (80 articles, 95 quicklinks, 2 diaries, 82 comments)
on Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:21:07 AM
...on Russia's part and not founding their economical establishment on "global commuism/fascism" as the PNAC has pushed(i.e., US of A). The military industrialized complex just might fold and I will cheer. However, I am concerned if US strikes Iran (they have, but if worse), our US Iraqi soldiers, will be in the middle of it all. Course our leaders could give a skunk's butt about that as long as they keep that cash flow coming straight into their pockets.
I don't know who "You ppl" are from the first poster, but I will just ignore it and pretend I am not one of those "you ppl's"!
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shirley reese (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 278 comments)
on Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 12:32:34 PM
The Leader of one of the closest Arab Allies of the US was asked by Putin why the former was trying to get closer to Russia and offering financial 'goodies' to them. The Arab Leader replied by stating that he was trying to spread out his eggs to more than one basket. Putin replied and this is extremely important to note and not lose sight of, by declaring that his Russia keeps all its eggs in its own (Russian) basket. China & India do the same. Soon maybe, the ASEAN states will form a Bloc of their own and do the same. By the end of this Century, a Turanic (Turkic) Bloc (Turkey+Azerbaijan+Kazhakhstan+Turkmenistan+Uzbekistan+Kirghistan)might also emerge, much sooner if Turkey is not admitted into the European Bloc NOW, to be followed by Sub-Saharan Africa and South America. The US Empire established at the end of World War II shall collapse taking down with it, the UN, its Security Council, the World Bank, the IMF and all other fetters by which the US has kept the World chained to its Empire. The US will be left with the Middle East but only if their (Arabs+Persians+Afghans + Pakistan) legitimate 'interests' are attended to NOW and the 'demonizing' of Islam stopped IMMEDIATELY. What about Israel? They also have to change their 'behaviour' before it is too late for them.
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syed mahdi (1 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 123 comments)
on Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 2:02:58 PM
to not want to brag about the "Peace Dividend" Ronald Reagan created by the collapse of the former USSR. I responded by saying that RR had nothing to do with it, but everything to do with adding more runaway debt to Americans that will not be paid off in their grandchildren s lifetime.
As can be recently seen, the US finds itself in a self-prescribed quagmire in Afghanistan, while the self-appointed chicken-hawks opened another front in Iraq on their "War Of Terror" to maximize the profit potential, and see that a third will begin shortly with Iran.
All the while Russia was busy re-making itself into what it is currently. So too, China and India has been developing their infrastructure to meet 21st century demands.
These 3 plus Brazil represent the "BRIC" emerging bloc of economic powerhouses that are slowly uncoupling their economy's from the dependence of the US, and supply the world with the commodities needed for consumption, which the military-industrial-complex doesn't.
When the US finally pulls its head out of the sands of the ME, caused by the worthless $ or a demoralized military, it will find a completely restructured world that doesn't take commands from Washington anymore.
Largely due to a bunch of fascist's "Goon's & Thug's" of the Bu$h & Co. cabal who thought acting with criminal intent, the world would see it through its filtered propaganda differently.
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Stanimal (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 15 diaries, 438 comments)
on Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 2:43:21 PM
