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Superdelegates WILL Decide: Will They Allow Clinton To Take the Scorched Earth Path?

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The real Democratic primary is over. Obama won. Hillary lost.

The DNC and Dem leadership must decide-- Do nothing and allow a Clinton scorched earth attack or cut the required delegates to win by the number of MI and FL delegates no longer counted, in which case, Obama wins handily, exceeding the number needed to win, if even a small percentage of remaining uncommitted superdelegates commit for him.

The numbers tell the truth. There is no way Hillary can succeed in pulling ahead of Obama by winning primaries, even by massive margins, even if she won every remaining primary. Jonathan Alter's done the numbers and Hillary has virtually lost the race, in terms of pledged delegates. Even if there are "re-dos" in Michigan and Florida, she will not pull a very strong margin.

And in Florida, where the Republican legislature laughed at the potential for mischief their legislation of a primary date that violated DNC rules created, the vote is hopelessly distorted. If a "re-do" is run, Republicans will be able to change their registration and influence the vote. Independents who already influenced the MacCain election will be able vote twice, thus influencing two elections. This is what the Republicans in the Florida legislature wanted. It was predicted shortly after the Florida legislation was passed. Don't buy the line that it was passed unanimously. The onerous date designation was added on to a major bill requiring paper ballots-- a bill that Democrats could not have opposed.

The fact is, the only way Hillary has any chance at winning is to destroy Obama, to viciously attack him directly and through surrogates, so she can then argue that Obama has been so weakened that only she can take on McCain.

The fact is, the DNC can do several things to help deal with this.

First, since Michigan and Florida delegates are no longer to be included in the primary, the number of delegates allotted to those states should be subtracted from the 50% plus 1 number of delegates required for either candidate to win.
Michigan has 156 delegates and Florida has 185, which totals 341, or 394 if you include disqualified superdelegates too.  Deduct 171 from the number required to win and the new number to reach becomes 1854 or deleting the disqualified superdelegates too, we see 1827.

If you assume that the two candidates stay about even for the balance of the race, then, according to Slate's delegate calculator, Obama will have 1677 and Hillary will have 1537 pledged delegates.

Without the disqualified Michigan and Florida delegates included in the calculations of required delegates, Obama will have enough delegates, including the superdelegates already committed to him, without any more superdelegates committing, to win.

If you take Jonathan Alter's wildy unrealistic projection wherein Hillary wins massively in every race yet to be held, "it makes the score 1,625 to 1,584 for Obama."

Then, Obama will only need 30 more superdelegates, out of the hundreds of still uncommitted delegates. But that scenario is highly unlikely. More likely, Obama will have enough. That means that he already has enough to win.

If we extrapolate and hypothesize in fairytale land, where Alter has explored the unlikely Hillary-wins-all-the-states-scenario, then the superdelegates will have to decide.

If the DNC announces that, since the MI and FL delegates are not being included, the new number the candidates need to achieve to win the primary will be 1854. Then, if the DNC announces that, since further primary votes will NOT change the pledged delegate outcome, it encourages the superdelegates to declare for their candidate now, this primary season could be over.

Imagine how many hundreds of millions in campaign funds this will save the Dems, that will then be applicable to taking on McCain, how much sooner the healing process will be able to begin.

The mainstream media will hate it. They will lose hundreds of millions in advertising. They will lose their cheap, easy political news feed.

The democratic congress may not like it either. The political frenzy has kept the light off of their failures, off the blue dog democrats who function more like right wingers, selling out the constitution.

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Rob Kall is editor-in-chief, publisher and site architect of OpEdNews.com, President of Futurehealth, Inc, and an inventor. He hosts the Rob Kall Bottom Up Radio Show, aired in the Metro Philly area on AM 1360, WNJC. Over 200 podcasts are archived for downloading here, or can be accessed from iTunes. Rob is also published regularly on the Huffingtonpost.com

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I was a caller on NY morning radio today, posing t... by Gustav Wynn on Friday, Mar 7, 2008 at 10:20:29 AM
Hillary Clinton, the Madame of the DLC has determi... by John Sanchez Jr. on Friday, Mar 7, 2008 at 1:21:38 PM
film at eleven....It isnt Barak Obama I find objec... by ardee D. on Friday, Mar 7, 2008 at 3:09:52 PM
Obama has the temerity to call on Hillary Clinton ... by John Sanchez Jr. on Friday, Mar 7, 2008 at 7:19:43 PM
If you havent heard Obama slander Clinton it is no... by ardee D. on Saturday, Mar 8, 2008 at 9:16:48 AM
I have given Barack Obama four years of considerat... by John Sanchez Jr. on Saturday, Mar 8, 2008 at 9:41:05 AM
empty promises calling for hope are for the n... by ardee D. on Saturday, Mar 8, 2008 at 8:44:07 PM
I find it a bit amusing and telling that those peo... by Nezua on Saturday, Mar 8, 2008 at 3:57:21 AM
then show me an instance of slander or name callin... by ardee D. on Saturday, Mar 8, 2008 at 9:11:07 AM
He's looking for a life.... by Gregg Gordon on Sunday, Mar 9, 2008 at 11:00:25 AM
I have a life, four kids, fourteen grandkids, ever... by ardee D. on Sunday, Mar 9, 2008 at 11:21:05 AM
ardee, I'd be interested in your reaction... by Gregg Gordon on Sunday, Mar 9, 2008 at 3:03:06 PM
stems, not from anger, but from the cold light of ... by ardee D. on Monday, Mar 10, 2008 at 8:05:30 AM
I haven't made up my mind yet, disgusted there... by William Cormier on Friday, Mar 7, 2008 at 6:06:37 PM
However, Hillary has institutionalized the rabid b... by John Sanchez Jr. on Friday, Mar 7, 2008 at 6:17:42 PM
...but I think that Hillary will end up as the Dem... by Charlie L on Friday, Mar 7, 2008 at 6:45:53 PM
Hillary is DLC to the core. Dem leaders like Schum... by Rob Kall on Friday, Mar 7, 2008 at 9:46:04 PM
There is such a little difference between the two,... by ardee D. on Saturday, Mar 8, 2008 at 9:19:33 AM
I ju st heard Hillary on hardball defending her ca... by siriusss on Friday, Mar 7, 2008 at 10:46:03 PM
I like pieces from all of the comments!  Rob,... by steve scheetz on Saturday, Mar 8, 2008 at 8:34:02 AM
It is not Obama that I object too so strenuously, ... by ardee D. on Saturday, Mar 8, 2008 at 9:24:52 AM
running mate..........this would tip the scales fo... by Ernest on Saturday, Mar 8, 2008 at 8:52:52 AM
Obama will not pick Feingold or Kucinich for a run... by John Sanchez Jr. on Saturday, Mar 8, 2008 at 10:04:29 AM
Gore.  Then it's over.... by Gregg Gordon on Sunday, Mar 9, 2008 at 11:06:03 AM
In case yall forgot the popular vote does not ente... by john riggs on Saturday, Mar 8, 2008 at 11:36:03 AM
You know and I know that if Obama would pick his V... by shirley reese on Saturday, Mar 8, 2008 at 12:53:28 PM
tell them to vote for Nader.... by john riggs on Saturday, Mar 8, 2008 at 4:17:14 PM
     I believe we all want to ... by mikel paul on Saturday, Mar 8, 2008 at 1:18:10 PM
You say we have no choice, I disagree. We have the... by ardee D. on Saturday, Mar 8, 2008 at 2:11:49 PM
     The '3', O, Hill ... by mikel paul on Saturday, Mar 8, 2008 at 4:23:07 PM
I do know you, I was really speaking to those who ... by ardee D. on Saturday, Mar 8, 2008 at 8:40:16 PM
Mr. Riggs, the seat belt statement was in jest, as... by shirley reese on Saturday, Mar 8, 2008 at 6:33:14 PM
what this country needs............if Obama takes ... by Ernest on Sunday, Mar 9, 2008 at 12:13:36 AM
Michigan and Florida delegates have to be included... by Richard Wise on Sunday, Mar 9, 2008 at 7:24:56 AM
People aren't going to vote for four more year... by Gregg Gordon on Sunday, Mar 9, 2008 at 11:13:21 AM
The intelligenceof those democrats in Michigan and... by ardee D. on Sunday, Mar 9, 2008 at 11:26:52 AM
"First, since Michigan and Florida delegates ... by Garth Blacker on Monday, Mar 10, 2008 at 1:44:24 AM