I spend a lot of time not only contributing my writings to the anti-Bushite Blogosphere but also reading what other people in that realm have to say. Lately, the more I read the more foreboding I feel about what many are saying is an imminent military attack by this terrible Bushite regime on the nation of Iran.
Indeed, there seem to be pieces of evidence accumulating that point in that direction. And with this gang, why would one doubt that they could do it?
But I also pay attention to what goes on in the world's financial markets. And while those markets do not write commentaries and news reports, they do reflect the views of a whole lot of people who put their money where their mouths are, and who therefore have every motivation to look at least a little ways ahead for anything that might impact the value of their assets.
And everybody agrees that a war between the United States and Iran would have a huge impact on the values of a great variety of assets-- an impact enormous in magnitude and global in scope.
We're talking here about major disruption of the life-blood of the world economy: oil. We saw back in the 1970s how disruptions in the supply of oil would jolt the world's economies. And we saw how a sharp rise in the price of oil helped trigger years of inflation.
And if the United States attacks Iran, it is predictable that the Iranians would strike back in other, less predictable and quite possible violent and destructive ways. And the world's markets do not like unpredictable and destructive events.
In other words, if the people trading on the world's markets shared the forebodings of an outbreak of war between the United States and Iran that are now appearing all over the anti-Bushite Blogosphere, the prices on those markets would reflect those fears. The price of oil would go up. The stock markets would go down.
But that's not what's happening. The price of oil has risen some lately from its recent sharp slide, but it is still well beneath the levels of last summer, for example. It got up to the mid 70s (dollars per barrel) some months back and now it is below 60.
And as for the stock markets of the world, more of them are climbing up to new highs rather than showing signs of great anxiety. The stock market in Japan --always vulnerable to disruption in the shipments of oil-- is higher than it has been in years. Australia recently hit record highs. Likewise the Dow Jones Industrials here in the U.S. And the European markets are, for the most part, continuing to do very well.
So who should we believe: the stories about the great danger that the Bushites are readying the attack, or the markets who see nothing all that troubling in the foreseeable future?
If the markets are wrong, why is that? If the Bushites are serious in their saber-rattling, why aren't the people trading in the markets taking it seriously?
If the Blogosphere is wrong, why is that? If these signs of war are just a bluff, why do people in the Blogosphere take them seriously when other people can see through them?
Are the financial markets full of ostriches with their heads in the sand, or is the Blogosphere full of Chicken Littles who think the sky is falling?
I don't know the answer, but I thought the question deserved to be raised.
Andrew Bard Schmookler's website www.nonesoblind.org is devoted to understanding the roots of America's present moral crisis and the means by which the urgent challenge of this dangerous moment can be met. Dr. Schmookler is also the author of such books as The Parable of the Tribes: The Problem of Power in Social Evolution (SUNY Press) and Debating the Good Society: A Quest to Bridge America's Moral Divide (M.I.T. Press). He also conducts regular talk-radio conversations in both red and blue states.
You've raised a good point, and I've spent time wondering about it myself. I think, generally speaking, the finance people are wrong. I think they're way too optimistic.
Look at www.intrade.com (under current events) for example. They give odds at between 4 and 5 to 1 against an attack on Iran by the end of 2007.
I would bet that the finance people are thinking much too rationally; i.e., thinking what would they do if they were Bush, etc.
I think the key to understanding what Bush will do in any given situation, is to focus on his perverse, delusional, morally defective "personality".
Financial people are probably thinking about things like not enough troops, already overstretched, not enough money, too many unknowns, too many potentially unacceptable consequences, etc., and that is weighting their opinion the wrong way.
Bush doesn't care about things like consequences...consequences be damned. He's never had to worry about such things his whole life. IOW, they simply can't see and appreciate the fact that Bush is criminally insane.
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jpsmith123 (3 articles, 1 quicklinks, 1 diaries, 286 comments)
on Wednesday, February 14, 2007 at 9:06:05 PM
I have been thinking a good deal about this as well. It's a conundrum. I don't think it's about oil as much as it is about the currency in which oil is traded. Saddam Hussein decided to put some effort into trading his oil for euros. I think a case can be made that that's a primary reason for the war in Iraq. Notice that Iraq is no longer offering oil for euros. Iran has stated its intent to do what Iraq tried to do. I think this saber rattling is not about atomic weapons but a threat to Iran that they best not put too much effort into trading their oil for euros. If they do, the US will have little to lose to attack them. The loss of a monopoly on how oil is bought and sold would hurt the US more than a spike in the price of oil. As long as Iran backs off in its efforts to trade oil for euros I don't think we'll attack. Otherwise I think we probably will. I don't think it's obvious that Iran will not back down since they wouldn't lose much face to do so. The world doesn't think this is about petrodollars, they still think it's about atomic energy. But all this is just a guess on my part and without a clear sense of which direction things are going, it's all conjecture. All I know is that I haven't heard much lately about Iran's efforts to escalate it's efforts to trade oil for euros, and if they did, I don't know how willing the world would be to help them. That may be why the markets are not too worried. They would have the inside dope on this, so you're right I think: it's surely wise to keep an eye on those markets.
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Mark A. Goldman (81 articles, 2 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 243 comments)
on Thursday, February 15, 2007 at 12:19:45 AM
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