I recently received information from a Mr. Manfred Zysk, an engineer with some interesting ideas and an interesting background. He has plans for a small hydrogen powered jet plane as well as a hydrogen manufacturing plant to process hydrogen from seawater. Mr. Zysk has read some of my articles and has given me permission to publish any and all of the material from his web site. You can visit his site at www.mz-energy.com. He has all of his plans, letters to different Presidents (Clinton and Bush), as well as letters to Congress. His plans are ingenuous and interesting. His ideas on hydrogen production and use probably merit further consideration from the government, but not being a scientist or an engineer myself, I can't really say.
What did intrigue me the most, was his estimates of The Worlds Oil Reserves. Mr. Zysk appears to have done a fair amount of research, and if true, give the most frightening scenario yet on the amount of time we have to use fossil fuels. He also makes some very pointed observations on the fundamental Christian concept of Jesus saving the earth and the coming rapture which he believes that our present government pins it's final hopes on after we have exhausted the worlds last fossil fuels that we "steal" from the rest of the world. Believe me when I say that his conclusions actually make sense when you look at the world from his standpoint. I am going to reprint his chapter on the estimates on the world's oil reserves. I would also recommend that you check out his web site where I'm sure you will find some very interesting concepts and correspondence.
1. Current World Oil Reserves - Estimates
The International Energy Agency and United Nations have previously published over 10 years ago oil resource data and estimates of recoverable and probable unverified world oil reserves. The data included probable recoverable oil shale and tar sands. The availability of oil supplies was then estimated to last for 45 years. The consumption of oil has drastically increased beyond the estimates by the International Energy Agency and the United Nations, because in part of the unexpected rise in industrialization of India and China and overall increases in world population, and the Opec countries oil export quotas were parceled out according to their estimated reserves, but then their oil reserves were grossly inflated in order to export more oil. Opec's actual oil reserves are estimated, but factual figures are unknown. According to the International Energy Agency, 33 of 48 biggest oil-producing countries have passed their peak. All super-giant fields in the world are in decline.
Saudi Arabia refuses to release details about each oil reservoir, and does not permit audits by outsiders. Mr. Nansen Husseini, ex-senior Aramco official states: "If demand and depletion patterns continue, every year the world will need to open enough fields or wells to pump an additional 6 million to 8 million barrels a day to meet the rising demand and at least 4 million to compensate for the declining production of existing fields. That's like a whole new Saudi Arabia every couple of years, Husseini said. When a crisis comes in a year or two or 10 � it will be all the more painful because we have done little or nothing to prepare for it."
Exxon-Mobil stated "due to depletion, it will be necessary to replace 80% of current production with new fields by 2015." This would be the equivalent of 4 times the Saudi Arabia oil deposits just for the next 11 years. ExxonMobil documents that global oil discoveries peaked in 1964. Declining rates of discovery are therefore a long-established trend. ExxonMobil Corp. forecasts global energy demand will rise 50% by 2030 and oil will remain the dominant fuel source. Exxon estimates global conventional oil reserves amount to 3.2 trillion barrels and nonconventional resources boosts the amount to 4 trillion, leaving more than 2 trillion barrels of conventional resources still to be produced, Exxon said. On 12/14/2005, ExxonMobil says world will need 60% more energy in 25 years. The planet's remaining crude-oil resource base - approx. 2.2 trillion barrels, excluding non-conventional oil, can support that growth, Mr. Spelling said. The Middle East and Russia hold most of the remaining reserves, he said. Chevron notes in recent advertisements that 33 of 48 nations are in decline. We have seen the peaking of production in a majority of individual nations, including some important producers such Indonesia, Norway, Great Britain, and Venezuela. Exxon Mobil Sr. V.P. Stuart McGill said on 2/7/2006: "No combination of conservation measures, alternative energy sources and technological advances could realistically and economically provide a way to completely replace those imports in the short or medium term."
The National Geological Survey had claimed that the world oil reserves amount to 1 to 3 Trillion barrels of oil and would last between approx. 32 years to 98 years. World Oil Production stated that oil reserves amount to 1.032 trillion in 2002, but new estimates are 1.08 trillion barrels of oil, it looks like planet Earth has oil for about 10,000 days, i.e. about 27 years. If consumption increases an average of 5% year, then we have oil for about 15 years. But the US Geological Survey estimates that amount of oil that is still to be found at about 3 trillion, three times the oil reserves known today. World oil supplies are estimated to be 2 trillion barrels by international bodies, and half is already consumed, leaving approx. 1 trillion barrels, or 37 years of oil supply to the year 2041. These figures and estimates show that many variables exist, and it is difficult to come up with actual global oil reserves. The major oil companies have falsified their oil reserves before.
The world was consuming 30 billion barrels of oil last year, and demand is climbing by 1.8%, that means if we are at "peak oil," or at the "break-even point" of production vs. demand, then we need to find and produce an additional 30 billion barrels of oil every year, plus 1.8% or 540 million barrels for additional demand every year. Present estimates of supply and sustained oil production are expected to remain the same for only 2-3 years. The world oil demand now has been upgraded to 2.1% or 630 million barrels, and current depletion is 2% a year. According to information, the World conventional oil has peaked in 2005, all hydrocarbons will peak in 2010, gas will peak in 2020, and uranium will be depleted in approximately 2025. In 2004 the world produced 30.5 billion barrels of oil but discovered only 7.5 billion barrels of new oil.
Finally the major oil companies are providing data. During the Biennial New Zealand Petroleum Conference in early March, 2006, world car production demands are estimated to increase from 750 million today to 1.660 billion in 25 years or by 2031. Demand for oil will increase from 84.9 million barrels today to 138 million barrels per day by 2030.
The many individuals who have shown an honest concern about peak oil and diminishing fossil fuels, only show their concern for our standard of living, employment, food supply, economy, and in short our survival and the survival of future generations for the United States of America and the rest of the world. The US is part of the world, and our economic survival depends very much upon the rest of the world at this point in time. Our government, companies and corporations should be thankful for the efforts of concerned fossil fuel depletion activists, who actually provide a great service toward the survivability for all of us. The real issue here is that the government, oil industry and their experts are being asked and forcefully confronted to provide answers toward this country's energy and our future survivability. This is only a fair and rightful demand on behalf of all citizens, companies, corporations and countries. The only concern businessses and corporations should have is that all companies and corporations are operating in a fair and ethical manner because our livelihood and everyone's existence is at stake.
Mr. Oliver L. Campbell's article pertaining to "Certification of Oil Reserves in the Orinoco Belt" in Venezuela is truly excellent. Everybody needs to know what problems we face now and in the future, and how we can manage to overcome these problems. Our lives and economy are presently directly linked to the availability of fossil fuel and nuclear power. If these energy resources become scarce or too costly to produce and market, then alternative energy sources need to be developed to take their place.
The Cultural Economist Ronald R. Cooke released a valuable report on 12/28/2005 pertaining to Secretary of Energy Mr. Samuel Bodman's letter to Mr. Lee Raymond, CEO of ExxonMobile who is Chairman of the National Petroleum Council (NPC), Bodman has asked the Council to predict the future: "What does the future hold for global oil and natural gas supply?" "What oil and gas supply strategies does the NPC recommend the U.S. pursue to ensure greater economic stability and prosperity?" Mr. Cooke states: "The economic and cultural destiny of mankind is inexorably tied to the availability of fossil fuel." "We know NPC member corporations have better data is generally available to the public, are they willing to make it available to the study team? How will the NPC deal with the paucity of credible data from OPEC?" . . . " we have a lot of oil and natural gas on this planet, it would appear that only a small fraction is accessible. Then you have to factor in the supply chain challenges of transportation, refining, and distribution. Nations tend to treat resource statistics as classified information." "My guess is that the NPC and its consultants will be compelled to characterize a series of possible scenarios on the final report. There are simply too many variables and too many unknown quantums . . . Scenarios are not predictions. The oil and natural gas industry will give us its view of the relevant resource and supply chain issues through the National Petroleum Council's report. . . . we will have in�depth reports on the world's oil and natural gas resources from four American institutions and multiple independent authors. The public will be encouraged to understand the challenges of growing resource demand versus emerging supply limitations. Our political institutions will be confronted with the need to establish responsive public policy. The cumulative wisdom of these reports will describe reality. Will it be truth that Congress chooses to ignore?"
The oil companies and their many investors are used to making huge profits. Hugo Chavez just disclosed that the problem is inflated oil prices by the oil companies by as much as ten (10) times. Senator Harry Reid stated on 4/21/2006 that Exxon-Mobil is making a $2 profit per gallon of gasoline when average prices were at $2.79. When the time comes that these investors and profits diminish due to scarcity of oil and higher exploration costs, then oil companies will be going out of business, while the foreign oil suppliers are restricting foreign investors into their oil reserves, and oil exporting countries want to control their natural resources. This is already happening, and will continue to happen on a much larger scale, and will include nationalization of all natural resources. How much oil is available for US consumption for the next 20-40+ years?
It would be a mistake to play a guessing game or to gamble on unverifiable energy deposits. It would be painful to wake up in 5 or 10 years from now and find out that oil prices have risen to $150 to $200 per barrel, or the price of gasoline costs $8 to $12 per gallon, or more. The oil companies are now buying back their stock instead of investing into exploration with anticipation of making higher profits by withholding gasoline supplies from the market. We are now paying over $250 billion annually for imported oil. Can we afford to pay over $700 billion annually for imported oil? If we continue to sleepwalk, then obviously we are heading for a troubled future. Some estimates state that total world oil reserves may amount to 1.08 Trillion barrels of oil, but the question is what amount is actually producible and marketable. What would happen when within 10 years a hurricane would blast through Florida and moves directly westward and wipes out 50% of the offshore oilrigs and platforms in the Gulf of Mexico similar to Hurricane Katrina?
Americans and oil companies are known to be big gamblers. The question is, should we demand honest facts about our economy and actual energy facts, or should the people of the United States leave their lives in the hands of oil companies and rely on unreliable promises of foreign (Opec) countries, since they themselves do not know how much oil they have. The American People have grave doubts about our government's truthfulness. The looming worldwide energy crisis can be laid directly at the feet of our government and previous US administrations for aiming to control all world energy resources.
Bio-fuel (ethanol) is being touted as a renewable and major alternative to oil. The bio-fuel produced from plants and organic material has a limited life cycle too. When the soil is used for several years in the row to produce the same crops, then the nutrients (fats & oil) are leached out, and the soil becomes unusable and depleted. How many years will bio-fuel last? Unfortunately, people are being fed a regular diet of false information all the time, such as electric cars, fuel cells, bio-fuel, wind power, solar, nuclear power, etc. All of these combined energy sources are not adequate to sustain our present industrial and economic existence with continued population growth. The total amount of oil consumption is expected to increase by another 50% in 25 years, and any natural gas deposits are not adequate to make up for the shortfall of depletion.
Tim was banned from the site for posting private email from the publisher to him on his blog, and then attacking the publisher and the site in emails and articles. OEN has no responsibility to publish articles from people who attack the (more...)
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of this website or its editors.
Good Article Tim. I have weighed the the differences between hydrogen and ethanol, and think ethanol is the winner by far. Hydrogen is very volatile for one, and it takes as much energy to produce it, than what you get back.
Granted hydrogen can be created because water is relatively free for the taking, and methods such as solar electrolysis, or using dam power to power electrolysis, is available, but the distribution problem will be more costly in the long scheme of things.
Special hydrogen tanks will have to be used, with special trucks to transport, along with a logistics problem in being able to pipeline transport hydrogen to various ports for transportation distribution hydrogen stations. And then we have to get everyone new cars, and trucks that can run on the stuff. It is major heart surgery to say the least in getting hydrogen online as a major alternative fuel.
Personally I think we will land a man on Mars first before we have a functional hydrogen fuel economy.
Ethanol on the other hand is another story. It does not take more energy to produce ethanol, and it has a cooler volatility. This makes it a safer fuel. Implementing distribution would only be a matter of conversion from the gasoline tanks used in service stations across the country. Ethanol is easily transported the same way gasoline is transported. It can be used in today cars, trucks, Vans, motorcycles, boats, lawnmowers, etc. Minor mechanical adjustments can be made to vehicles on the road to use ethanol easily. Pipelines can easily accept this substitute fuel.
My idea with SugarCityCane; which I have talked about before; here at OpEdNews does not deplete ground soil, but in fact is grown hydroponically. Essentally the alternative fuels debate is about creating another Big Business opportunity like Big Oil has done, except alternative fuels grown on the land is a Small Business Venture. No one is interested. The idea of using good farm land to grow fuel, instead of crops is a no go to many common sense folks in the world.
But with SugarCityCane a City Growing Ethanol on the Ocean in kind; growing sugarcane on the equator it does not take up valuable farm land, but in fact frees up alot of land. Instead of growing Sugarcane on the land' grow it on the ocean. Think of the thousands of acres of land that can be used to grow other food staples.
I have been teling people about it from all over the world, and I sincerely think SugarCityCane will become a reality...
Visit my site: http://www.sugarcitycane.com
by
Dom Jermano (20 articles, 0 quicklinks, 40 diaries, 930 comments) on Thursday, Jan 11, 2007 at 5:41:42 AM
Hi Tim,
Yes I have visited his website. I have read his data and there is nothing new in concern to producing hydrogen.
Whether electrolysis is used or some sort of Chemical association/disassociation method is used, he says nothing about the distribution nightmare. He says nothing about the need to build a whole new fuels economy that supports vehicles and hydrogen stations that will need to be built in order for hydrogen to come on line.
I realized this site is not to my liking when he tries to explain how the world began. I don't believe his explanation. His claim that the sun heated up the earth and oxygen formed on the darkside of the earth and when it reached its capacity; is how winds were made, is laughable.
In fact the Sun is a hydrogen ball of fire. What gets me, and I have not been able to find this information is that in order for a fire to burn no matter what fuel is used, it needs oxygen to burn. Where is the oxygen supply for the Sun? This is the trouble in understanding the burning of the sun. So I do not believe this guys assertions.
His whole idea in using hydrogen is to use electrolysis which is powered by uranium or nuclear energy. He is selling his idea to get the US goverenment to buy his so called nuclear waste storage system. He claims to have patents, but obviously the government and Lockheed Martin has ignored him.
I don't see his solutions as a problem solver especially when he admits that nuclear power is limited in resource material just like oil. So why the website? I don't know. He also claims to have designed a futuristic atomizer carburetor to increase gas mileage. Anyone with a sense of intelligence knows that fuel injection is an atomizer designed in todays cars, and trucks, making carburetors a thing of the past.
In part, I think my idea with SugarCityCane is more realistic, safer, and on target for real energy development, and easy transition to the distribution market. I think the quick result will be felt years ahead of hydrogen use, and be a longterm resource. Ethanol is grown. It is not a finite resource like Oil and Uranium. It is nonpolluting, nontoxic, and has NO environmental waste.
I make no fabulous claims, or suggest people need to pay me for my ideas. I only want the best, safest, reliable, and sensible BIG BUSINESS ALTERNATIVE ENERGY.
That is my Company:ACET=Aquatic Charcoal Ethanol Technicorp.
Grown at SugarCityCane, a city on the ocean growing our worlds energy needs.
It is remarkable Tim that I have people around the world that have been asking to buy ethanol from me. But I sadly have to tell them, that SugarCityCane is not a reality yet. It needs to be built. I have written to Bill Gates Foundation to see if they will help support this, but I have not heard a word yet. I just keep hoping, and know that it will someday be bigger than Microsoft, even though we will be using alot of Microsoft technology with their computer support.
I sure would like to solicit your support for this practical energy plan.
Sincerely,
Dom Jermano
by
Dom Jermano (20 articles, 0 quicklinks, 40 diaries, 930 comments) on Friday, Jan 12, 2007 at 8:59:54 PM
1 | 2
Contact Author
View Authors' Articles
(0+)
Must Read (0) 
Well Said (0) 
News (0) 
Touching (0) 
Funny (0) 
Supported (0) 
Interesting (0) 
Inspiring (0) 
Valuable (0) 
