The Des Moines Register reports some signs that look like VERY good news to Democrats.
Thousands more Iowa independent voters are expected to turn out for Democrat presidential candidates than Republicans at today’s Iowa caucuses.
Iowa independents are expected to follow the lead set by their national peers in 2006. Nationwide, independents backed Democrats heavily in the watershed 2006 elections, in part out of a rejection of President Bush and a loud cry for change that has continued into the 2008 campaign, strategists in both parties agree.
Recent polls have shown the percentage of Iowa independents planning to participate in the Democrat caucuses is far higher than those who say they’ll caucus for Republicans. Turnout for the Democrats is projected to be higher than Republicans, perhaps double.
A turnout like this, with twice as many Iowans caucusing on the Democratic side, will be a clear harbinger of sunny days ahead for the Democrats.
Then, there's the Ron Paul factor. Experts say that Paul's strong base among younger voters is not detected in polls because polls call land line phones and younger voters tend to just use cell phones. This writer has not seen evidence that Paul's supporters are younger-- more monied yes, but not younger. But if Paul pulls better than expected, this will be another message to congress that the people want the US out of Iraq-- no more false promises and lame excuses.
The register reports,
Because the caucuses represent the first hint of the election year’s political mood, the trend among independents is a warning to Republicans about the general election, top national GOP strategists say.
It’s also a sign the Democratic candidates’ common agenda of ending the war in Iraq and easing pocketbook pressure is reaching beyond their base, campaign consultants in both parties say.
"It isn’t always true that what energizes your base energizes the independent swing voters," said Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster. "But the Democrats are finding their footing and finding that what energizes our base energizes independents."
