The Surprising Democratic Primary Results in New Hampshire

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January 9, 2008

Bloomberg:
Justin Wolfers, a professor of business and public policy at the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania:

"There was not a single pundit, poll or alternative prognosticator that got last night right.''

["Clinton's Win Enriches Bettors Facing 100-to-1 Odds," by Michael Tsang and Eric Martin, January 9, 2008, Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aDwt8YHCf1kY&refer=home ]

Reuters:

ABC's polling director Gary Langer:

"It is simply unprecedented for so many polls to have been so wrong. We need to know why," he said.

["Pollsters flummoxed by New Hampshire primary," Wed Jan 9, 2008 3:46pm EST, by Joanne Kenen, Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN0960368620080109 ]

Wall St. Journal:

"[I]t is no exaggeration to term the result truly historic. Not that there haven't been more dramatic upsets or come-from-behind wins that carried more significance -- this was just an early primary, albeit a pivotal one. But in terms of unpredictability, or at least the failure of everyone to predict it, it may have no modern match."

["Clinton's Historic Surprise; Political prediction markets, polls and pundits may never have got it so wrong," by Justin Wolfers, January 9, 2008, Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119985909065777677.html?mod=googlenews_wsj ]

New Hampshire Public Radio:

With about 40% of the NH precincts in, Clinton was leading Obama by about 39% to 37%. New Hampshire Public Radio commentator asks guest commentators about this.

Ray Buckley, state chair of the New Hampshire Democratic Party, interviewed on NH Public Radio about 9:42 pm EST:

"I don't think there is anybody here in the state of New Hampshire that predicted this. It is quite surprising.... people were projecting upwards of a 15% victory [for Obama]. Certainly, it's made for a much more interesting evening that anyone thought last night."

Wayne Lesperance, associate professor of political science at New England College, interviewed at about 9:48 pm EST:

"It's remarkable. I don't know that anybody predicted this. ... At Clinton events, the crowds haven't been as large as Obama. I don't have an explanation, really, except that a lot of folks are surprised. Women turned out larger in NH than Iowa. Young people -- a lot of people thought they would go for Obama in a much bigger way."

[Live broadcast, evening of January 8, 2008, New Hampshire Public Radio. NHPR comments are notes by Pokey Anderson, typed as heard, but may not be word for word.]

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Pokey Anderson has broadcast or published numerous reports on voting machine issues over the past four years. She co-produces a weekly news and analysis radio program, The Monitor on KPFT-Pacifica in Houston. A previous article was "Even a Remote (more...)

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