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I just participated in a citizen exit poll in the state of Florida, and I do mean throughout the state of Florida. Ten counties in Florida were covered, in at least one precinct, by citizen pollsters, with more than one precinct covered in larger cities. I don’t have the exact numbers yet since I am typing this without internet, under a canvas canopy in the jungles of a campground near the Sarasota-Tampa area. The Little Manatee River is floating lazily nearby, Spanish moss draped over huge live oak trees, palm shrubs everywhere. Eat your heart out, snow laden states; Florida is the place to conduct exit polls for Presidential primaries, especially those early ones. Florida’s was January 29. Florida was one of those states where the delegates won’t count for the Dems, since they moved up their primary to Jan. 29. According to the official election—not sure how many absentees or provisionals are included yet—McCain and Clinton “won,” if you trust the official results… which “trust issue” is exactly the point of doing citizen exit polls. Professional pollsters are hired by mainstream media, CNN and the other big networks, and there is ample evidence that they change their poll results to reflect the official reported election results, and do not care a whit for using their polls as a check, or verification, of those official results. But citizen exit polls! There’s a new concept! Citizens who care most about checking on the honesty and accuracy of the official election results can conduct their own polls. Since the highly questionable election of 2004, a few citizens’ election integrity groups have been conducting exit polls here and there in several states across the country, for instance, in California, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, to name the ones that I know of personally. We don’t have the comparisons to the official Florida results, by precinct yet, due to the slowness of the official tally report. Our hand-counted written poll results were done on election night, or, in the case of larger precincts, by the next day. BUT due to machine malfunction, official precinct results are delayed!. We didn’t want to release the exit poll data before the official precinct results were made public, so that the official results could NOT be changed to match them! On the other hand, with a high turn-out of exit poll participants, we are more likely to be correct as a sample, AND we just might have more votes for a particular candidate than their optical scan machine tally shows. We are waiting to release the exit poll tallies until the officials are finished jimmying around with the official tallies, so that they don’t UN-RIG the precincts we did. Isn’t that an interesting exercise to be conducting in the “greatest democracy in the world”? But I will tell you this. Besides covering a good sample of Florida counties, I witnessed something of a miracle in the precinct I participated in. Voters, in fact the majority, were actually filling out the poll—it could also be called a survey—AND printing their names at the top and signing a statement swearing, affirming, or attesting that they voted the way they did. This form was drawn up by people with law degrees, Mark Adams being the mastermind, to stand up in court to PROVE fraud, if the official count differs significantly, especially if the candidate winning was not the one to receive the majority of votes. Perhaps citizen exit polls have been done with affidavits before (not sworn before a Notary Public, but sworn by signing the statement), but I can’t recall one, and I don’t think such a widespread canvassing--with affidavit-- has ever been done, in the history of citizen election activism. How did activists pull this off? First this was not just election activists disgruntled since 04, or even 00, or before, over the riggable software of electronic voting. This was a relatively new army of activists, the Ron Paul supporters, who have lately become aware that their candidate was cheated in a straw poll, and could be again in Republican primaries. Voting rights activists, the majority of whom have been drawn from the ranks of left-leaning people, not so much Democrats as people fed up with BOTH major (“corporate controlled”) parties, have teamed up with right-leaning, Libertarian-leaning meet-up going Ron Paul workers. And I do mean workers. The exit polling I witnessed, and helped a little with, in a precinct in Sarasota, was the most organized I have ever seen. Credit must go to the top, Mark Adams, but also to the people who worked with him at all levels. Ron Paul must have quite a team. Our star pollster was a professional salesman, obviously a successful one. Very few people slipped by without filling out a survey; those who did were the ones who didn’t even stop long enough to hear this guy’s persuasive arguments. The rest of us strived to emulate his technique, and passed the “tougher” sells on to him, while we collected the completed surveys, made sure they had put the date beside their signature, and prepared more surveys with a hard surface to write on and pen attached, for our super pollster to hand to the next voter. Here is his spiel, incase you are planning your own exit poll. “We’re conducting a VOLUNTEER (emphasized a little) exit poll and we’d like to have you participate if you are so inclined.” You don’t ask them, “Would you like to participate?” because it’s too easy to say, “No, thank you.” Instead, you mention that there is a choice. Americans love choices. Of course if they refused, our salesman was ready to meet their objections with good solid reasons. He would often follow the first sentence with a second, “This is to validate the votes.” We would also explain very simply that if their candidate got say 80 votes out here at the poll, but the official count was 60 votes, then we have a problem. People got this and were willing to do it. Mark said that at his polling location, many genuinely thanked him for doing this poll to check the “machine count.” This is Florida, after all. We got a lot of., “Who are you?” We answered that sometimes by saying who we are not. “We are not the media or tv stations, we are NOT representing any parties or candidates.” “We are a citizens’ group; we don’t get paid.” OR, “We represent an election watchdog group.” You don’t want to seem to be doing too much explaining as if we are defensive. Sometimes we just handed them a little blurb Mark, or someone working with him, wrote up about the website. The other tough question was, “You want my signature? It’s supposed to be a secret ballot!” Our skilled salesman said to answer the first question with, “YES, absolutely. We need your signature to validate these polls.” I would say, “We need to make sure you are a valid voter.” Or I would say, “The election in there (indicating the machines room) was by secret ballot; this is an exit poll, and we need to know who voted.” Our crack pollster would actually explain to them that to challenge any discrepancy, we needed sworn ballots. Some still refused, so we had to let them go. Often our salesman pollster followed them as they walked away and drew them back by saying, “This is really important.” By our straightforwardness, openness, charisma, and intensity, we got a pretty good percentage of voters signing their exit poll ballot as to how they voted, in fact swearing to it. (See website for actual exit poll survey forms and other materials you will need to conduct an exit poll in your own state http://www.projectvotecount.com.) Ok. That was the good news. Plus this: we were surprised that we were allowed to have a table right outside the voting room. People would have to walk by us to get in to vote and to leave. Ohio had this interpretation of law als--we are considered to be exit pollers, just like the professionals, Zogby or Edison/Mitofsky. And from my observation of the Mitofsky poll taker in SC last Saturday, we are at least as professional, competent, and effective. In fact more so. We had a team of pollsters (as opposed to a single poll taker in a precinct in SC) , so very few got by and almost everyone was asked. Breaks never took the team’s numbers to fewer than three. ( The election official decided that three of us were all he would allow.) Mark also had provided paperwork on the website that would show the Florida law that allowed us to exit poll. Probably many, if not all, states allow exit polling either outside the 100 foot line, or right outside the official voting room. Ohio also had a directive for the 2006 election allowing us to be right outside the voting room. We could not talk to voters before they went in, in both Florida and Ohio, but we often pointed them to the door to vote when they looked puzzled when they came to vote. There was a Democrat Party worker who gave us some challenges: she thought we should not be so controversial, telling people their vote might not count, or asking voters’ opinions and then having them sign it. She referred to some guidelines that were written down, but it seemed to us that they were open to interpretation. Every poll I have been a part of always has those officials who question the validity of what we are doing. But what it comes down to is that we are unpaid citizens increasing the transparency and testing the validity of our elections, in one of the few ways still open to us. We can’t watch the vote count on machines that tabulate internally. We can’t even stand and watch people vote, unless we have signed up to be official observers for a particular candidate. And in Sarasota, at least, we, the people, were not allowed to be in the same room where the votes were being tabulated. Also by Florida law, precinct results are supposed to be posted at the end of the election day, presumably before the memory cards and other election materials are packed up and returned to county location for tabulation. Florida precinct workers, just like Ohio precinct workers, do not follow this law. Sometimes the excuse is that tabulation is not done at the precinct level, even though the machines could be set to print out a tally record. Various other excuses are given, such as, “People don’t look at them anyway,” or “Someone steals the postings,” or “They are too long to post,” but the bottom line is that this valuable check by the citizens that the results are not changed further down the chain of custody , is just too “inconvenient” for the poll workers. We did not get the precinct tabulation results in our Sarasota precinct, and considered ourselves lucky to get even the total number of voters that day, from a somewhat suspicious official guarding the entry to the voting room. And so exit pollsters must wait for the results from the county election office, after who-knows-what happens to them. We need those precinct results in order to compare them with our poll results, AND the citizens need those precinct results to verify that they were not changed later. There are absentee and early votes and provisional votes added in, either before election day or after, but the machine count of every voter who voted in person on each optical scanner is a fact, recorded on the memory card of each machine. Unless the memory card is lost, or altered by pre- or post-software manipulation, it is a permanent record, until erased, of how the votes were cast on election day, NOT COUNTING absentees, early, and provisional votes. This is a record that MUST be available to the citizens for an honest election. Citizen pollsters, as well as official poll workers, should be able to check that the number of voters that day matches what they recorded in the poll books and on their machine counts. That is the most basic of checks and balances. An audit or poll or partial recount checks to see if the sample of paper ballots counted is of the same percentages as the official count. To do that, an accurate precinct count and tally must be available to the citizens. Take action -- click here to contact your local newspaper or congress people: Click here to see the most recent messages sent to congressional reps and local newspapers recallvotingmachines.com People say,"An honest elections cow, I don't get it." So I say back, "Well, it's obvious I am a cow, see, udders, horns, spotted fur, big head, floppy ears. And I happen to think that making our elections honest again is about the most inportant thing we can do for our supposed Democracy. Thus, Honest Elections cow. What's so hard to get?" moo
Elections Exit Polling. So, what do you have to do to validate an election with a secret ballot? The answer is have an election where there is no secret ballot. It's a parallel election with a non-secret ballot, and all of its vulnerability comes from the fact that it's voluntary and parallel and all of its strengths come from the fact that it's non-secret and witnessed. Cut out the middleman, get rid of the secret ballot, then we can have verifiable or legitimately challenged elections. by
brantl (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 23 comments)
on Tuesday, February 5, 2008 at 11:27:20 AM
abolish the secret ballot? You are right Brantl--BUT, and it's a big but, it seems that the secret ballot is about as entrenched as the electoral college, or, heaven help us, the right to own a gun. I am so fed up with machine tampering and other forms of election fraud, I personally would give up my secret ballot. Others come back and tell me that people get killed for voting the wrong way, or bashed by their spouses ( we had two women who signed affidavits but said the really hoped their husbands wouldn't find out.), or paid for their vote, or fired. I think if we run an exit poll in Ohio I am going to recommend that we ASK for their signatures but not push it. They pushed it in FL. I haven't heard the comparisons to the official results yet. by
MJ Creech (9 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 10 comments)
on Thursday, February 7, 2008 at 9:56:37 PM
Martin is very much into computers, and writing and reading and learning about all sorts of subjects, from politics to cosmology to Japanese manga. He also like to sing Karaoke, mainly 70's stuff. To go into detail on any of these interests would be to fail to do justice to the many interests that are necessarily omitted. That's his excuse for not going into more detail, and he's sticking with it, for now at least. If that's not enough, Googling MTGradwell should give you an idea of what's been...
Potential loophole Sounds like a good job being very well done. As you say, it's particularly important that you don’t release the exit poll data before the official precinct results are made public. However, even with all the care you are taking, there is still a chance that your efforts can be subverted and nullified. Even without knowledge of your results, the following course of action was still available to ballot riggers, albeit it is tricky and time consuming: They could 1. Do some sleuthing to discover exactly which precincts were subjected to citizen exit polling, and 2. undo any ballot rigging which took place in those specific areas, while compensating if necessary by increasing the amount of rigging elsewhere. This would be more difficult than just tweaking official figures to match yours, because it would require knowledge of exactly what rigging had taken place. Still it would be feasible, if the same people were both doing the rigging and producing the results. How could you counter this? One way is to hold back not just your results, but also even the identity of the areas you polled. You probably can't stop potential riggers from learning this information, but at least don't make it easy for them. Make any potential covering of tracks by riggers a time-consuming affair. Another approach is to count all the people who exit the polling area having voted, whether you poll them or not. This count should match the official count, and is a good way of detecting both ballot-stuffing and ballot-losing, unless the number of stuffed ballots is carefully made equal to the number of lost ballots. This seriously constrains the options of any potential riggers. In an area where there's only one or two volunteers, not enough to do a meaningful amount of polling, maybe have them just count the voters. Since this can be done discreetly, from a distance, there's no signs to tip off potential ballot-fixers that their total is being checked. Thirdly, where there are significant delays in the official results, demand explanations for the delays, and subject any explanations given to a very thorough examination. The longer the delay, the harder it will be for ballot stuffers to come up with a plausible explanation other than the truth. Point out that the law requiring results to be posted at the end of election day is actually a law and not an outmoded quaint suggestion; and the reason it is a law is precisely because it helps stop any "post-adjustment" of the official results. The mere fact of delay has to call the validity of the election into question. by
Martin Gradwell (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 3 comments)
on Thursday, February 7, 2008 at 6:48:32 PM
all sorts of loopholes, unfortunately Yes, good understanding of the process. I think like this also. In Ohio when we did parallel elections ( a lot of work, BTW) we kept the location (only one location unfortunately, but sometimes multi-precincts) secret except to the citizen workers and then phoned them the night before. Once in Warren County--where they had the phony Homeland Security threat in 04-- I told the BOE the morning of the election that we were doing a parallel election in a certain precinct and oddly enough that turned out to be the precinct in the Congressional District where the Dem challenger Paul Hackett beat the Repub.--oh what's her name?-- by the greatest margin. (she "won" overall, due to the last precincts coming in, after a machine failure.) Our sample matched pretty well our precinct official results. Maybe just coincidence, but I think that exit polling might also make the riggers sweat a little, or scramble to change strategies. It's not perfect. BUT the more exit polling we do the better the proof of fraud. I think we could blast the internet with, "Citizen exit polling all across the country shows reversal of official election results." I think that might shake em up a bit. Mark Adams' strategy was to get more total votes for a particular candidate, say Ron Paul, than the official vote shows. This would mean you need almost all of the Ron Paul voters to sign affidavits--they might be able to do this! The idea is that Ron Paul votes would have been switched to another candidate. We think that happened in Ohio with third party votes. by
MJ Creech (9 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 10 comments)
on Thursday, February 7, 2008 at 10:22:08 PM
I remembered her name! Jean Schmidt 'WON" against Paul Hackett--the precinct in Warren where we did the parallel election had more votes percentage wise for Hackett than any other precinct in the whole county. Could be just coincidence, but they KNEW we were there as of that morning. Sheesh--am I conspiracy theorist to suggest that someone somewhere is monitoring machine rigging even the day of elections and changing it as needed to make their candidate win by a believable margin? Yeah , maybe I am! For those interested I am submitting a new article comparing EPing by citizens to EPing by the so-called professionals. THere is a website I am using called www.projectvotecount.com People can sign up to do exit polling there. by
MJ Creech (9 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 10 comments)
on Monday, February 11, 2008 at 1:27:21 PM
Mark A. Adams earned his BA in business administration with a major in finance and a minor in economics at the University of South Florida. He earned his law degree and his master of business administration at the University of Florida where he also worked as a teaching assistant in the Economics Department.
They Know Where We Are Looking Project Vote Count’s citizens’ exit polls are easy for the election officials to see. We are right next to the exit from the polling place. The powers that be have to decide between cheating and getting caught or not cheating. Of course, if the powers that be could tweak their secret vote counting programs to adjust on election day so that the cheating could be turned off at the precincts where we are conducting exit polls, then they would deprive us of direct evidence of cheating at that precinct, but we would have statistical evidence showing cheating. This is similar to the obvious differences between results in the hand counted precincts and the machine counted precincts in New Hampshire. It doesn’t take a statistician to see that something fishy has happened. See for yourself at http://checkthevotes.com/primary_dem_New_Hampshire-summary To help make sure that the votes are counted accurately in Texas and in Ohio, take action and sign up with Project Vote Count today at www.ProjectVoteCount.com If you live in another state, send us an email if you want us to help you make sure that the votes are counted accurately there. For more election news that you didn’t hear about from the corporate media cartel or all of those organizations which claim that they are looking out for your rights while taking your money and doing nothing, see Project Vote Count’s Election News http://www.projectvotecount.com/ElectionNews.aspx To see the Zogby poll and other important information about voting, go to Project Vote Count’s FAQ page http://www.projectvotecount.com/faq.aspx To stay informed, sign up for Project Vote Count’s email list at www.ProjectVoteCount.com by
Mark Adams (12 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 90 comments)
on Saturday, February 16, 2008 at 11:27:54 AM
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