Elizabeth Warren is showing better in polls than Barack Obama did three years before the election-- he wasn't even on the radar yet. And Warren's doing 50% better than John Kerry did three years before his 2004 presidential run.
Hillary's early lead means next to nothing at this stage of the game.
RealClearpolitics.com has a report on a new PPP 2016 election poll
that includes Elizabeth Warren, coming in with six percent at third place, after Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden.
Historically, rankings and polls this early on can mean very little. But already, Warren is doing pretty well.
Here are stats from wikipedia's poll tracking for the 2008 race, showing that about this far out from the 2008 race pollsters were not even including Obama in the picture.
Mystery poller published an article in 2005, looking at past election polls three years out from the primary.
2008 PRESIDENTIAL POLLING IN 2005: A REALLY BIG GRAIN OF SALT
, which said,
" The polls for the 2004 Democratic primary provided "the best example of tainted primary polls." Three candidates who did not run (Gore, Clinton & Bradley) dominated the early trial heats, while the ultimate "frontrunners" (Kerry, Edwards & Dean) barely registered:
WH '04 Dem Primary Averages
41% Al Gore
19% Hilary Clinton
9% Joe Lieberman
8% Bill Bradley
7% Dick Gephardt
4% John Kerry
2% John Edwards
2% Bob Kerrey"
The mystery pollster article added, "MP hastens to add a bigger problem. The population of voters typically sampled by these early trial heat questions (the sample "frame") bears little resemblance to the relatively small slice of actual primary voters that will ultimately decide the 2008 nominations. "
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