Defying Western expectations, President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an won in last month's runoff election. Turkey's longest-serving leader, Erdogan won 52.2% support in the runoff, defying polls that predicted economic strains would lead to his defeat.
In his victory speech on May 28, Erdo?an denounced his NATO
allies who didn't hide their preference for his opponent Kemal K?l?çdaro?lu in
the election. "Didn't German, French and British magazines publish covers to
beat Erdo?an? They also lost. You have seen the alliances that have been formed
against us for months. You have seen who is with whom. They failed and they
will not succeed from now on," he said.
His new mandate is expected to allow Erdogan to pursue
increasingly independent policies that have strengthened Turkey's position as a
regional military power.
According to TRT, Erdogan's independent foreign policy, decades of political experience
and domestic programs gave him the edge over his challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu,
who led a fragile opposition alliance.
Erdogan's long tenure has increased Turkiye's political bid to become a global power as the US has continued to lose its international influence and soft power across many areas from the Middle East to Central Asia, TRT said adding:
Erdogan has skillfully pursued a middle ground in many conflicts from Libya to Ukraine, protecting Turkish interests across the chaotic Middle East and increasing Ankara's political stakes in Turkic-dominated Central Asia.
In the Ukraine conflict, Turkiye has also acted as a mediator, brokering a landmark grain deal between Kiev and Moscow mainly thanks to Erdogan's good friendship with Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
West Frustrated
Turkey is in NATO, sits close to the wars in Ukraine and Syria and often frustrates western powers in how it negotiates those conflicts.
Erdogan has maintained close ties with Russia and refused to participate in Western sanctions, while also supplying weapons to Ukraine.
The next five years will likely see a continuation of Erdogan walking a fine line and his transactional approach to foreign policy.
"There's absolutely no reason to think that [Erdogan] would reverse course or soften his approach," said political analyst Selim Koru.
"There is sort of a Western bloc that is broadly geopolitically aligned, and the Bloc wanted Turkey to be in its camp. Turkey essentially has said no, it wants its own camp and isn't interested in participating in any kind of geopolitical alignment where it isn't the boss," said Koru.
The Strategic Depth Doctrine
Tellingly, Turkish foreign policy under Erdogan has been associated with the name of Ahmet Davuto?lu, once his chief foreign policy advisor. It is virtually impossible to discuss Turkish foreign policy since 2002 without a reference to Ahmet Davuto?lu, one of the few academics who joined the ranks of the Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalk?nma Partisi-AKP).
In his book "Strategic Depth," published in 2001, Davuto?lu elaborates on his strategic vision about Turkey. He argues that Turkey possesses "strategic depth" due to its history and geographic position and lists Turkey among a small group of countries which he calls "central powers". Turkey should not be content with a regional role in the Balkans or the Middle East, because it is not a regional but a central power. Hence, it should aspire to play a leading role in several regions, which could award it global strategic significance.
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