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Is Bibi Bluffing on Iran?

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This article cross-posted from Consortium News


Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu

A striking feature of the Israeli political landscape in recent months has been the absence of a serious debate on the issue of the threat of war with Iran led by national security figures.

It is well known that many prominent former military and intelligence officials believe an attack on Iran would be disastrous for Israel. However, last year, after two former high-ranking officials delivered an initial blast at the idea of striking Iran, very little has been heard from such national security figures.

The reason for this silence on the part of the national security sector, just as the Israeli threat of war was escalating sharply, appears to be a widespread view among Israeli national security analysts that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's threat to attack is a highly successful bluff.

Still, some critics of Netanyahu's threat to go war against Iran have expressed concern about the failure of national security figures to speak out publicly against the policy. Former Jerusalem Post columnist Larry Derfner, who now blogs for the independent web-based magazine 972, wrote last month that there are "crowds" of former military and intelligence officials who privately oppose an attack on Iran and could slow the "march to war" by speaking to the news media. But he complained that "Israelis aren't hearing their voices."

Yossi Alpher, a former Mossad analyst and later head of the Jaffee Center for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, has noted the same problem. "Plenty of people are calling for public debate on the issue of striking Iran," he told IPS in an interview. "But it isn't happening."

Former Mossad director Meir Dagan launched the first attack on Netanyahu's policy by a former national security official last June, asserting that an attack on Iran would provoke a regional war and would ensure that Iran would acquire nuclear weapons.

Maj. Gen. Shlomo Gazit, who was chief of military intelligence in the 1970s, also disassociated himself from the policy, declaring, "An Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear reactor will lead to the liquidation of Israel." Like Dagan, Gazit warned that it would cause Iran to immediately decide to become a nuclear power and he added that it would increase international pressures for the abandonment of "the territories."

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Those shots across Netanyahu's bow have not been followed, however, by similar criticisms by other former military and intelligence figures. In fact, Gazit himself appeared to backtrack from his earlier harsh verdict on the option of attacking Iran in a recent television interview.

On Russia Today on March 12, Gazit did not voice any of his previous objections to the threatened Israeli strike against Iran. Instead he emphasized the readiness of Israel to carry out a strike, even without U.S. approval if necessary, played down the cost to Israel of an Iranian response, and said an Israeli strike would result in delaying the Iranian nuclear program by "two or three years at least."

Gazit reaffirmed to IPS, however, that he has not changed his mind about the dangers to Israel attending a strike against Iran he had raised last June.

The publicly discussed reason for the absence of dissent from the national security sector is lack of information. Nathan Sharony, who heads the Council of Peace, with over 1,000 former high-ranking security officials with dovish views, told Derfner the reason ex-national security officials were not speaking up was that they lack the "solid information" necessary to do so.

Gazit gave IPS the same explanation for the failure of former officials to oppose a strike against Iran publicly. But the main reasons for opposing war with Iran do not require access to inside information. The more compelling explanation for the silence of former military and intelligence officers is that they, like journalists and other policy analysts, think that Netanyahu is probably bluffing and that they perceive the bluff as working.

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Retired Brig. Gen. Uzi Rubin, the former head of Israel's missile defense program, recalls being on a television program a few months ago with Ari Shavit, senior correspondent at Haaretz, on which Shavit declared, "Netanyahu is playing poker for all of us. We shouldn't call out his cards."

Shavit was suggesting that the success of the prime minister in the high stakes poker game requires that influential Israelis not question his claims about Israel's willingness and capability to attack Iran's nuclear sites. That struck a Rubin as a significant factor in the politics surrounding Netanyahu's policy.

"People who think we shouldn't attack Iran believe Netanyahu is playing poker," said Rubin in an interview with IPS. "So they think they shouldn't speak up."

"Netanyahu speaks like he's very convinced Iran has to be stopped by force," said the former missile defense chief. "Does he mean it?" Rubin said he doesn't know the answer.

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Gareth Porter (born 18 June 1942, Independence, Kansas) is an American historian, investigative journalist and policy analyst on U.S. foreign and military policy. A strong opponent of U.S. wars in Southeast Asia, and the Middle East, he has also (more...)
 

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