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July 2, 2008 at 13:05:33
Fortis Prediction of US Bank Meltdown a Net Hoax: The Making of an Urban Legend by Paul Haughey Page 1 of 1 page(s) |
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This article documents how an urban legend got started the weekend of June 28-29, 2008, how and why urban legends spread virally, and what you can do to spot them and stop them. A quick internet search revealed the same abbreviated "article" -- only one paragraph long, with the exact same introductory statement -- has been posted on 269 other blogs and discussion boards. Most of these discussion boards allow anonymous posts, with no accountability required by the poster or author (such as the Sean Hannity fan site, the Ron Paul discussion board, etc). The story can also be found on Digg and other viral marketing and web ring sites, and I predict that you will probably see this many more times, on discussion boards or in emails, for months or years to come. Now, I am the first person to distrust mainstream news sources. And for years, I have said that the economic policies of the Bush administration are not sustainable, and we are headed towards a huge collapse. In fact, we are already seeing many elements of that collapse. However, this story appears to be nothing more than a net hoax, designed to inspire fear. THE ANATOMY OF AN URBAN LEGEND
On Sunday, June 29, I received several forwarded articles alleging a large European banking conglomerate predicted a United States financial "meltdown" within coming weeks.
The forwarded story led me to a blog, not a news site, which alleged to provide a one paragraph abbreviation of the story, introduced by the statement "I was shocked to read the following, which was posted 4 hours ago...".
The article alleges that Fortis chairman, Maurice Lippens, expects 6,000 US banks to file for bankruptcy in coming weeks. It mentions that even large financial institutions, such as Citigroup and General Motors, will also be affected, and these events will start a complete financial meltdown in the United States.
STORY DOES NOT HOLD UP TO SCRUTINY
Most posts also claim that the original story was written in Dutch, and a few even contained a dead link to the alleged original story on Da Telegraaf, a Dutch news submission site. After searching the Da Telegraaf site, I was able to find the original story, which was submitted anonymously. It had no author, it sited no source, it came from no news syndicate (such as Reuters or Associated Press), and it was submitted to no news syndicates.
My first reaction to the story was that it contained all the elements of a net rumor or an urban legend, the kind my grandfather likes to forward to me: Bill Gates will give you $1,000 for forwarding his email; Obama isn't really a US citizen; undocumented Mexican laborers are going to get $1 trillion in free US health care but you are not; car jackers are going to steal your car by putting a flyer on your window; etc.
I next searched every legitimate news site I could think of, including press release sites, blogs or personal web sites by Fortis directors or employees, interviews, oral or written public statements, etc. I found no predictions of 6,000 bankruptcies.
THE REAL FORTIS STORY
Fortis did in fact issue a press release last Friday, summarizing its efforts to raise capital over the last few weeks (1.5 billion euros) to protect itself against potential crash of hedge funds (particularly oil speculators). This is actually good news for most US consumers.
In early June, financial genius and progressive activist George Soros testified before Congress that oil prices have reached an artificial high of $140 per barrel. His opinion, and the opinion of experts throughout the industry, is that the price has been driven up artificially by futures market and other speculators, and just like the tech market correction/crash of the late 1990's, the oil market will soon correct itself down to the real price of $80-90 per barrel. This will most likely result in a price reduction at the pump, possibly a dollar per gallon or more.
Additionally, oil consumption has been slowing down over the past months, and for the first time in years, demand is lower than supply. Fortis's efforts have been simply to raise real money, to protect itself against artificially overpriced hedge funds.
Before my career in the nonprofit sector, I was trained as a researcher at the University of Kansas. Moreover, I earned a Master's Degree (with honors) in Religious Studies, where we were trained extensively in research methodology, including folklore, legends, and mythology. As I read this story, and look at the way it is spreading, I realize that though the delivery system (the internet) is relatively new, this story has many of the same elements as folklore and legends that are thousands of years old:
-It comes from a "reputable" source
Fortis is a company that most of us vaguely recognize as a world leader in the banking industry, but aren't quite sure what they do. In fact, all legends and folklore site experts or some slightly unknown reputable source (my friend's uncle is an engineer, this was written by a corporate insider, etc). Even the Gospel of Luke begins with a claim that the author has considered all the statements of eye witnesses, all the texts, and all other sources of information before writing his version of events.
-The expert is foreign (preferably European), and the original story is not in English
Not only was the source in Dutch, there were no English translations available, outside the one paragraph summary by the discussion board poster(s). This actually adds perceived credibility to the story. Americans tend to resent Europeans, yet trust their experts. We all seem to know, for example, that the Europeans have been driving hybrid cars and using solar and wind power for 30 years, yet this technology seems to be withheld from us.
This also begs additional question about the original poster(s) who coincidentally first noticed the story at the exact same time (4 hours ago): were all of these people bilingual Dutch-English readers? If not, how were they able to summarize the story for us, in the exact same manner? And lastly, English is the official business language in Western Europe - why would an international bank issue a press release in Dutch?
-It feeds on existing fears and insecurities
Most urban legends are based on economic fears, racial fears, fears or anxieties about technology or the future, fears or anxieties of gays or women, etc. It's not exactly a secret that most of us have been negatively affected by the slumping economy of the past 7 years, and by outrageous gas prices.
-A sense of awe and shock, and/or a secret story that was leaked
Ironically, urban legends feed on the notion that we are being hurt by misinformation or lack of information. This is a huge enticement to coerce many of us into action (or non-action). As psychologist John Bradshaw has said, many of us are still "stuck" in childhood anxieties, installed by our parents and guardians. Think about it: the most popular net rumors are the things that were the source of family secrets and anxiety when we were children: sex, gender issues, money, the future, etc. It is not difficult to manipulate people with more misinformation if you can find an unhealed nerve and touch on it.
-Sense of urgency
This story alleges that this story broke just 4 hours ago, and predicts the market will crash within weeks. This sense of urgency encourages us to read more, to share with friends, to sell all our stocks...to do something, anything, before checking out the facts.
-Details are vague and sketchy
I find it highly unlikely that a press release by a huge international firm like Fortis would make such a bold claim, even if it were true. Nonetheless, an authentic, savvy press release would include facts with details, names of banks and branches likely to be affected, etc. None of these elements were present in this story.
-It spread over the weekend
Be suspect of stories that "break" over the weekend. This is a trick used extensively by tricksters such as Karl Rove, because businesses typically cannot respond or react over the weekend, and news rooms are covering issues from previous week, not today's news.
If you look at the "whisper campaigns" started by Karl Rove in past election cycles, such as John McCain's "love child" rumor in the 2000 primaries, and the John Kerry swift boat and Navy medal rumors in 2004, they were all started over the weekend. They spread like wildfire on talk radio and over the internet, but candidates and mainstream news were not able to respond until the following week.
-A slight basis in the truth
As I learned as a child when trying to manipulate my parents, all effective white lies have a little bit of truth in them. As I mentioned, Fortis did indeed issue a press release, and it did indeed predict a crash of a specific sector of the market. And, of course, Fortis is known for its financial savvy.
THE OBJECTIVE OF NET RUMORS
While nobody can speak with certainty about human motivation, we can look at common themes in these rumors, which gives us a glimpse at why they are started, and why people spread.
When in graduate school in the mid 1990's, I received an urban legend email about Hillary Clinton's involvement in a murderous Black Panther gang during her law school years. We knew the story was false, but I decided to assemble a research team to try to track down the original source of the story, which was in fact very similar to the Fortis story.
After a few days of research, my team was able to pinpoint the first time the net rumor was posted. One person, an alleged professor at a state university, authored and posted the story on roughly 50 web sites in one day, then let the rumors fly.
We decided to take it a step further, and try to find a real name to go along with the pen name. This is usually not possible, but since the author identified himself with a state university, we made dozens of phone calls to the university until we tracked down the author. The poster was a 40-something janitor at the state university (not a professor), a self-identified Rush Limbaugh fan, who was fired for exposing himself to female students. We subsequently learned that he had been banned from several web sites for posting nude photos of himself in discussion boards as well. *(We still have some of these nude photos - feel free to contact me and I'll share them, although I warn you, they are not pretty.)
We typically don't think of urban legends as a tool for right-wing, regressive thinkers. But in many cases, fear appears to be a central theme. The reader is encouraged to fear *everything*, even the most mundane of daily activities (i.e., a flyer on your window). Lack of fear will leave you susceptible to being ripped off, carjacked, murdered, etc.
Fear-based stories have been used throughout history to manipulate children, to keep people paralyzed from enacting social change, to prevent action and activism, and to prevent change. Fear of racial minorities, for example, keeps us divided and prevents us from uniting for change.
Fear also keeps us focused on protecting ourselves, our homes, our loved ones, our families...and takes our focus away from systemic problems, from the environment, from our larger communities, from our brothers and sisters in other parts of the world, and it certainly keeps us unaware of the ripple effects of our actions (and the actions of our country). For example, if we are preoccupied with fears of being carjacked at the gas station, we certainly do not have any time or energy to question the logic or ethics of our invasion and occupation of Iraq.
I have often said that while fear sells better, hope lasts longer. The lesson to be learned, of course, is to be weary of any information, regardless of the source, that tries to scare you into non-action. The world needs our hope and our activism. To quote the articulate George W Bush: "Fool me once, shame on ... shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on... if fooled... if you're fooled, you can't get fooled again."
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author
and do not necessarily reflect those of this website or its editors.
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| 12 comments |
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Didn't do enough research on this one...
Ok, everybody, the actual link to the article in De Telegraaf is easy to find if one actually looks. Below is the complete text (not just the top two paragraphs that Mr. Haughey read - "extensive research class in school" - Pah!) and as for his assertion that the Dutch news source was nameless and therefore unreliable - how many articles are written in US papers that have no byline? {i.e., "Staff reporter" or something similar} This was a pathetic excuse for denigrating this official and legitimate news source. As for it not being carried by the "regular" newswires... guess who owns both AP and Reuters? The Rothschilds!! So, does anyone think they could possibly not want this story to be broadcast everywhere in the Western world because it would cause a premature run on the US banks??? Critical thinking, folks... ================== AMSTERDAM - Fortis count within some days up to weeks on complete collapsing the American financial markets. That explains interventions of Thursday to the serial according to the bank insurer for itself with? 8 billion to reinforce. ? We are on the nippertje ready. It will be thought in the United States much more badly than? Fortis picked up yesterday 1.5 billion with aandelenemissie. End previous year had Belgisch-Nederlandse the concern 13 billion to new shares spend for the adoption of ABN AMRO, for which the 24 billion paid. lip paunch bases its care on conversations with bankers. Two months suffered we did not know that it goes badly this way in America. And it still much will go more badly. We have to a thick mattress necessary the coming eighteen months pass when we can introduce ABN AMRO. by Captain Obvious (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 2 comments) on Thursday, Jul 3, 2008 at 9:26:06 PM  (0+)
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this whole thing
I found two different articles, one day apart on the Telegraaf website 1. Dated 28 jun 2008, 08:10 Link: click here Dated 29 jun 2008, 10:28 Link: click here I hadn't read all of Mr. Haughey's article before I googled about the 6,000 banks, which he states: "I found no predictions of 6,000 bankruptcies. " Please read the second of the two articles. Once again, both are from the Telegraaf.nl, reputable, I hope. Near the end of the first paragraph of the second article (its in bold) is the following in dutch: Fortis verwacht faillissementen onder 6000 Amerikaanse banken die nu weinig dekking hebben. "Maar ook Citigroup, General Motors, er begint een completemeltdownin de VS." I submit this for your approval only, but it seems that Mr Haughey is incorrect that there is no mention of 6,000 banks. It even mentions GM, and seems to validate the trueness of the article, and therefore the many "viral" copies of itself that have been generated. I do wonder why one of the articles carries this, and the other does not. I can only speculate at this time. Also, the different dates, one day apart from each other. I must add that I did finish Mr. Haughey's article after finding this. I suggest this: Read his article, then check out the links that I have posted (you dont need to read dutch, just compare it to the english language translations, or do it yourself via babelfish) then reread his article. You will then get a very good feeling of which is the hoax by Ed Ed (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 1 comments) on Thursday, Jul 3, 2008 at 10:49:40 PM (0+)
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Sorry... It still doesn't add up.
Mr. Haughey contends that the "real" Fortis story was a deal worth 1.5 billion Euros, but Fortis' own press release on their website confirms that the issuance of stock was just part of a larger solvency plan to raise 8 billion Euros. If you want to read the press release, it is easy to find on Fortis' site: see the press releases entitled "Fortis accelerates the execution of its solvency plan" and "Fortis completes capital increase" off of their main page. I must confess I'm a bit too spooked to link directly to them, since there are bold print warning that state: "THIS ANNOUNCEMENT IS NOT FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES, CANADA, AUSTRALIA OR JAPAN." Supposedly this is for "regulatory reasons." After this warning, you have to answer yes to: Can you confirm that you are not a resident of, or presently located in, the United States, Australia, Canada or Japan, or otherwise deemed to be a U.S. person? I found this really creepy. But I read it anyway. Was Fortis worried that if a "U.S. person" read the press release, it would ruin the big meltdown surprise? The Fortis story appears to hold up to more scrutiny than Mr. Haughey's opinion. Contrary to what Mr. Haughey writes, the original article is still available when I searched for it on De Telegraaf's site (although I don't doubt that it was taken down for a while). Babelfish works, as does Google Translator, so it's not impossible to comprehend for someone who doesn't speak Dutch. Take away those two peices of evidence to support the "hoax" theory, and his whole opinion turns into a general essay on urban legends. by Herne Hunter (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 1 comments) on Friday, Jul 4, 2008 at 2:01:19 AM (0+)
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Maybe not a Hoax
I also saw the Fortis article (below). Mr. Haughey has gone to GREAT lengths and many paragraphs to call this information a hoax, but he has nothing to base it on. It likely has merit, especially if Americans are "not" to read it. In light of the Rense article: "Final Globalization of the US Banking System by the Federal Reserve" and the Fed's speedy push to control every facet of our monetary system, it's likely the article is valid. -------------------- Fortis Bank predicts US Financial market meltdown within weeks... From a Kitco (Bullion Dealers) forum Fortis is a large bank and insurer in the Netherlands and Belgium. It took over ABN Amro last year, together with RBS and another bank. Last Thursday, its share lost 17% because Fortis attracted foreign capital. I was shocked when I read the following, which was brought out 4hours ago: American 'meltdown' reason for money injection Fortis. 28th of June, 9:10 ----------------------------------------------------------- From: "Who Owns the Fed" http://www.geocities.com/northstarzone/FED2.html "The FED creates money from nothing, and loans it back to us through banks, and charges interest on our currency. The FED also buys Goverment debt with money printed on a printing press and charges U.S. taxpayers interest. Many Congressmen and Presdents say this s fraud. Who actually owns the Federal Reserve Central Banks? The ownership of the 12 Central banks, a very well kept secret, has been revealed: 1. Rothschild Bank of London, 2. Warburg Bank of Hamburg 3. Rothschild Bank of Berlin 4. Lehman Brothers of New York 5. Lazard Brothers of Paris 6. Kuhn Loeb Bank of New York 7. Israel Moses Seif Banks of Italy 8. Goldman, Sachs of New York 9. Warburg Bank of Amsterdam 10. Chase Manhattan Bank of New York Presidents Lincoln, Jackson, and Kennedy tried to stop this family of bankers by printing U.S. dollars without charging the taxpayers interest. Forty percent of our personal federal income taxes goes to pay this interest. The FED's books are not open to the public. Congress has yet to audit it. THE FED FEARS THE POPULATION WILL BECOME AWARE OF THIS FRAUD AND DEMAND CHANGE." by Dee Thomas (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 8 comments [6 recommended, 0 rejected]) on Friday, Jul 4, 2008 at 3:40:46 AM (0+)
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A rose by any other name?
Regardless of the article's authenticity, the US economy is in a death spiral. There's just an undeniable measure of truth to it all even in spite of itself or its origins. To wit: GM could slip away most any time. It's all good, though. The fall will have a cleansing effect on the market and economy. by Redoubt (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 1 diaries, 6 comments) on Friday, Jul 4, 2008 at 6:08:35 AM (0+)
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This gave me a really big laugh :)
Haha, What the original author writes here gave me a really big laugh :): Last Saturday I was going through the last weeks financial news and comments, One of the most respected financial newspapers in The Netherlands is 'De Financiële Telegraaf'. It has got a website as well : www.dft.nl I checked this one and it showed the article which is quoted on this page ('Fortis predicts US Financial meltdown'). It quotes a press conference given by Fortis on that very Saturday. As I was shocked by such statements spoken by a bank CEO, I posted this on two message boards which I often read, curious for the message boards members opinion on this. Of course, I made two almost identical post (why wasting time making two different posts?). Now, a reaction on one of those posts included a link to this webpage. I was really surprised by what effect it apparently had, and the conclusion of the author made my day :). I admire being very cautious and looking for the thruth behind articles. Indeed, translations cannot be trusted without checks. But, A little investigation won't be bad as well: Ask someone from teh Netherlands, and he/she will confirm the contents of the article are correctly translated AND he/she will confirm that De Financiele Telegraaf is a highly respected financial newspaper in the Netherlands AND that Fortis had a press conference on that very Saturday (because it's share value dropped 17% on the Thursday before) AND other sites/papers in The Netherlands and Belgium quote the very same press conference as well:). p.s. If you want, you can do some additional research: you can translate the story from dutch to english yourself, by just using an online translator liek translate.com ;). by Willem van Opzeeland (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 1 comments) on Friday, Jul 4, 2008 at 6:55:05 AM (0+)
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Couldn't find it in the mainstream media? ahahhahahahhahaha!
"9/11 couldn't possibly be an inside job because U.S. mainstream media didn't report it...." Like they are going to anounce, "This just in....Your economy is about to collapse within one month......Now a word from our sponsors.....Do you have erectile disfunction? Well worry no more because that's nothing compared to the problems you are about to have...Sex will be the last thing on your mind...." by SuicideKings (0 articles, 6 quicklinks, 38 diaries, 94 comments) on Friday, Jul 4, 2008 at 1:30:39 PM (0+)
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bad banking
The USA is bankrupt. Period. That is the major reason for the high oil prices, they are skimming $50-60 off the top now. Also selling off their stocks to pay the bills. We are in really bad shape. I see others are informative here. I posted that FULL article myself on my website. Your whole article indicates you are either not very aware, or you are a thug trying to cover up the truth. I suspect the later myself. This country is fully at the end of the rope, along with the entire world. We stand on the verge of armegeddon at this time, from the excess people demanding limited resources. There is not way out, only going into it informed in ways to survive. The people of this planet, lead by those who have only personal wealth and power in mind, have nearly destroyed it. Nature is going to bite back. Time to get prepared. Oh the people of the USA, was a time they were to be the light, and now that is long past and we shall join the mess coming upon us. by Candace Frieze (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 30 comments) on Friday, Jul 4, 2008 at 4:40:21 PM (0+)
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Why is this article still here?
When I first read the newsrelease of Fortis I was stunned by the scale, so I could imagine anyones disbelieve. I started a thread on this on a website (ATS) and someone replied to me that this was ALL a hoax and gave me the source which was opednews. I read the article above, enlisted as a member and wrote the author he was mistaken and provided him with the original articles from a Dutch newspaper and mentioned that it also appeaared on TV here in a stockexchange program. To my surprise the author does not react and does not change his article to say that he made a little mistake. How does this work here? by peter koch (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 1 comments) on Tuesday, Jul 8, 2008 at 6:03:09 AM (0+)
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Real hoax, and hoax reality!
Another more urban legend hoax does not hold up to scrutiny; another one of these hilarious internet empty rumors. The source is no of any least accountability, no Reuters, no Associated press, no fox news, no CNN, no opednews.com; just another blabbing. I don't know how the opinion of Mr. Haughey could be about! http://rapidshare.com/files/121551867/MANIFEST__password_manifest_.RAR.html by Ashraf Moussa (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 1 comments) on Tuesday, Jul 8, 2008 at 4:31:11 PM (0+)
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Two weeks later...
This alleged hoax predicted 6,000 banks going bankrupt in two weeks. Regardless whether the two weeks ended this past Friday or it will end on Monday, only one bank has closed. By all indications this author is correct in calling it a hoax. by Ed Buffey (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 6 comments) on Monday, Jul 14, 2008 at 12:58:48 AM (0+)
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Prediction proven false! ...Six thousand banks, July 11 2008
I have two comments to follow up: Herne Hunter - The article doesn't say what you claim, either. EdEd - Neither of the links you provide say what you claim, either. Captain Obvious - you even reprinted an article, which doesn't say what you claim. NOWHERE does your excerpt claim 6,000 bank closings. Shouldn't this be obvious to any reader? And don't think any of us missed that subtle anti-Semitic comment. Peter Koch - in addition to your posts above, you've emailed my staff several times asking for a retraction. Why is this so important to you? Shouldn't you be the one retracting your comments? The prediction you so adamantly defended did NOT come true. Ashraf - you provided a dead link. Your link does not say what you claim. Dee Thomas - All of your information is also from KitCo, a Gold resellers web site. by Paul Haughey (2 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 2 comments) on Monday, Jul 14, 2008 at 1:24:05 AM (0+)
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