Home
Refresh   Tag(s): ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; (more...)  (less...)
Add to My Group
November 12, 2008 at 18:44:52

Must Read 1   Supported 1   View Ratings | Rate It

Promoted to Headline (H3) on 11/12/08:
America's Economic Crisis Is Beyond The Reach of Traditional Solutions

by Paul Craig Roberts     Page 1 of 1 page(s)

www.opednews.com


Tell A Friend

By most accounts the US economy is in serious trouble.  Robert Reich, an adviser to President-elect Obama, calls it a “mini-depression,” and that designation might be optimistic.  The Russian economist, Mikhail Khazin says that the “U.S. will soon face a second ‘Great Depression.’”  It is possible that even Khazin is optimistic.

I cannot predict the future.  However, I can explain what the problems are, how they differ from past times of troubles, and why traditional remedies, such as the public works programs that Reich proposes, are unlikely to succeed in reviving the U.S. economy.

Khazin points out, as have others such as University of Maryland economist Herman Daly and myself, that consumer debt expansion is the fuel that kept the U.S. economy alive.  The growth of debt has outstripped the growth of income to such an extent that an increase in consumer credit and bank lending is not possible.  Consumers are overburdened with debt.  This fact takes monetary policy out of the picture.  Americans can no longer afford to borrow more in order to consume more.

This leaves economists with fiscal policy, which, as Reich realizes, also has problems.  Reich is correct that neither a reduction in marginal tax rates nor a tax rebate is likely to be very effective.  Reich, a Keynesian, has an uncertain grasp of supply-side economics, but as one who has a firm grasp, I can attest that marginal tax rates today are not the stifling influence they were prior to John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan.  As Art Laffer said, there are two tax rates, high and low, that will produce the same tax revenues by expanding or contracting economic activity. Marginal tax rates are no longer in the higher ranges.  As for a tax rebate, Reich is correct that in the present situation a tax rebate would be dissipated in paying off creditors.

Reich sees the problem as a lack of aggregate demand sufficient to maintain full employment. His solution is for the government to spend “a lot” more on infrastructure projects on top of a trillion dollar budget deficit --”repairing roads and bridges, levees and ports; investing in light rail, electrical grids, new sources of energy.” This spending would boost employment, wages, and aggregate demand.

I have no opposition to infrastructure projects, but who will finance the baseline trillion dollar US budget deficit plus the additional red ink spending on infrastructure? Not Americans.  The US savings rate is zero or negative.  Home mortgage foreclosures are in the millions.  Officially, US unemployment is 10 million, but if measured by pre-Clinton era standards unemployment is much higher.  Statistician John Williams, who measures the unemployment rate by the pre-Clinton standards concludes that the rate of US unemployment is about 15 percent.  President Clinton “reformed” the unemployment statistics by ceasing to count discouraged workers as unemployed.  

For years, the US government’s budget has been dependent on foreigners financing the red ink.  Countries such as Japan and China and OPEC suppliers of oil to the US have huge export surpluses with the US.  They recycle the dollars by buying US Treasury bonds, thus financing the US government’s red ink budgets.

The open question is: how much longer will they do so?

Foreign portfolios are overweighed in dollar assets.  Currently the dollar’s value is benefitting from the financial crisis, as investors flee to the reserve currency.  However, sooner or later the huge outpourings of dollar debts will cause foreign creditors to draw back.  Already China, America’s largest creditor, has sent a signal that that time might be drawing near.  Recently the Chinese government asked, as they do indirectly  through third parties, “Why should China help the US to issue debt without end in the belief that the national credit of the US can expand without limit?”

Is the rest of the world, which has demanded a financial summit to work toward a new financial order, going to  permanently allocate the world’s supply of capital to covering American mistakes?  

If not, the bailout and the stimulus package will have to be financed by printing money. 
And the bailout needs are growing.  Car loans and credit card debt were also securitized and sold.  As the economy worsens, credit card and car loan defaults are rising.  Moreover, AIG needs more money from the government. Fannie Mae’s loss has widened to $29 billion despite the $200 billion bailout. General Motors and Ford need taxpayer money to survive. General Motors says that its GMAÇ mortgage unit “may not survive.” Deutsche Bank sees General Motors shares “as likely worthless.”

Shades of the Weimar Republic.

What Reich and the American economic establishment do not understand is that the recession paradigm does not apply.  There are no jobs waiting at US manufacturers for a demand stimulus to pull Americans back into work.  The problem is not a liquidity problem.  To the contrary, there have been many years of too much liquidity.  Credit has grown far more than production.  Indeed, US production has been moved offshore.  Jobs that used to support the growth of American incomes and the tax bases of cities and states have moved, along with US GDP, to China and elsewhere.  

The work is gone.  All that are left are credit card and mortgage debts.

Anyone who thinks that America still has a vibrant economy needs to log onto www.EconomyInCrisis.org and face the facts. 

Economists associate economic depression with price deflation.  However, traditionally, debts that are beyond an economy’s ability to service are inflated away.  This suggests that the coming depression will be an inflationary depression.  Instead of falling prices mitigating the effects of falling employment, higher prices will go hand in hand with rising unemployment--a situation worse than the Great Depression. 

The incompetent Clinton and Dubya administrations, unregulated banksters and Wall St criminals, greedy CEOs, and a no-think economics profession have destroyed America’s economy.  

What is the remedy for simultaneous inflation and unemployment?  

Three decades ago the solution was supply-side economics.  Easy monetary policy had pushed up consumer demand, but high tax rates had curtailed output.  It was more profitable for firms to allow prices to rise than for them to invest and increase output.
Supply-side economics changed the policy mix.  Monetary policy was tightened and marginal tax rates were reduced, thus stimulating output instead of inflation.  

Today the problem is different.  The US has abused the reserve currency role, thus endangering its credit worthiness and the exchange value of the dollar.  Jobs have moved offshore.  The budget deficit is huge and growing.  If foreigners will not finance the widening gap, the printing presses will be employed or the government will not be able to pay its bills. 

The bailout funds have been wasted. The expensive bailout does not address the problem of falling employment and rising mortgage defaults.  Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson could not see beyond saving Goldman Sachs and his bankster friends.  The Paulson bailout does nothing except take troubled assets off banks’ books and put them on the overburdened taxpayers’ books, thus endangering the US Treasury’s credit rating.  

What the Bush Regime has done is to stick the taxpayers with the banks’ mistakes.  An intelligent government would have used the money to refinance the troubled mortgages and stop the defaults.  By saving the mortgages from default, the banks’ balance sheets would have been made secure.  By failing to deal with the subprime crisis, Bush and  Congress have added a financial crisis to the exhaustion of consumer demand and the problems of financing huge trade and budget deficits.

Belatedly, Paulson has realized his mistake.  On November 12, Paulson announced, “We have continued to examine the relative benefits of purchasing illiquid mortgage-related assets.  Our assessment at this time is that this is not the most effective way to use [bailout] funds.”

The financial crisis has cost taxpayers far more than the amount of the bailout.  Americans’ savings and pension funds have been devastated.  Americans in investment partnerships, who have been required by IRS rules to pay income taxes on gains in the partnerships’ portfolios, have had the accumulated multi-year gains wiped out.  They have paid taxes on years of “capital gains” that have disappeared, thus doubling their losses.

America’s economic troubles will rapidly accumulate if the dollar loses its reserve currency role.  To protect the dollar and the Treasury’s credit standing, the US needs to curtail its foreign borrowing by reducing its budget deficit.  It can do this by halting its gratuitous wars and slashing its unnecessary military spending which exceeds that of the rest of the world combined.  The empire has run out of resources, and the 700 overseas bases must be closed.  

Can Americans afford massive infrastructure spending when they cannot afford health care?  In Florida a Blue Cross Blue Shield group policy for a 60-year old woman costs $14,100 annually, and this is a policy with deductibles and co-payments.  Supplementary policies from AARP to fill some of the gaps in Medicare can cost retirees $3,300 annually. When one looks at the economic situation of the vast majority of Americans, it is astonishing that the Bush regime regards wars in the Middle East and taxpayer bailouts of Wall Street criminals as a good use of scarce resources.

US corporations, which have moved their production for US markets offshore in order to drive up their share prices and provide their CEOs with multi-million dollar bonuses, can be provided with a different set of incentives that encourage the corporations to bring employment back to the US.  For example, the corporate income tax can be restructured to tax corporations according to the value-added in the US.  The higher the value-added in the US, the lower the tax rate; the lower the value-added, the higher the tax rate.  

Cutting the budget deficit by halting pointless wars and unnecessary military spending  and reducing the trade deficit by bringing jobs back to America are simple tasks compared to confronting inflationary depression.

The world has had enough of American irresponsibility and is taking away the reins. At the November 15 economic summit, the world will begin the process of imposing a new financial order on the US in exchange for continued lending to the bankrupt “superpower.”  With bailouts eating up the world’s supply of capital, continued foreign financing for Washington’s wars of aggression is out of the picture

 

Paul Craig Roberts, a former Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury and former associate editor of the Wall Street Journal, has held numerous academic appointments. He has been reporting shocking cases of prosecutorial abuse for two decades. A new (more...)
 

The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author
and do not necessarily reflect those of this website or its editors.

Contact Author Contact Editor View Authors' Articles

 

Book Recommendations for "Bailout"
Bailout Riches!: How Everyday Investors Can Make a Fortune Buying Bad Loans for Pennies on the Dollar
by Bill Bartmann

$24.95
Lowest New Price $15.38

Number of pages: 240
Publisher: Wiley

Bailout Nation: How Greed and Easy Money Corrupted Wall Street and Shook the World Economy
by Barry Ritholtz

$24.95
Lowest New Price $14.64

Number of pages: 332
Publisher: Wiley

Meltdown: A Free-Market Look at Why the Stock Market Collapsed, the Economy Tanked, and Government Bailouts Will Make Things Worse
by Thomas E. Woods Jr.

$27.95
Lowest New Price $15.99

Number of pages: 194
Publisher: Regnery Publishing

$700 Billion Bailout: The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act and What It Means to You, Your Money, Your Mortgage and Your Taxes
by Paul Muolo

$14.95
Lowest New Price $3.79

Number of pages: 188
Publisher: Wiley

View All Book Recommendations

Share this page: (what's this?)                   Tell a Friend: Tell A Friend

FACEBOOK      DIGG THIS      Add This Page to Mr Wong!           NEWSVINE      DEl.ICIO.US      Looksmart Furl      NETSCAPE      My Web      Tag!RawSugar      Blink List     (More...)
Comments: Expand   Shrink   Hide  
9 comments


Medicine for the Patient

Medicines for an anti-toxin and a vaccine for the economy:

1) Stop bundling and sales of mortgages;

2) Re-instate Glass-Steagall regs;

3) Create infrastructure investment pool of revenues for Federal Government;

4) Increase Social Security Incomes and

5) Raise interest rates on 10 year Treasury Notes to 10%.

by Matoska (22 articles, 1 quicklinks, 1 diaries, 33 comments) on Wednesday, Nov 12, 2008 at 8:21:12 PM

Recommend  (0+)

Paul Craig Roberts

I have a lot of respect for the thoughts, intelligence, and research of Paul Craig Roberts.

 

But, what about basic math that might get the average person onboard to understand where our country really stands?

 

I happened to do a search on unemployment rates and the breakdown of what percentages of jobs that were available in various states. From the results, it seems that more than one out of five workers, “works” for the government.

 

There are kids, the unemployed, the elderly, and those that can’t work who also need to be supported by the less than four out of five working.

 

So, these same four workers have to pay for their retirement, those who have already retired, their health care, everyone’s health care, the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, care of the roads, for police, NASA, courts, the government, waste, supplies, and everything else.

 

These 4 people working have not been able to pay for all that is now going on. What about the growing prison population and all the money needed just for that?

 

A friend of mine had grandparents who worked at a shoe factory. They got a month off for vacation, had lots of kids, a lake house, and a comfortable life. Try working at a shoe factory, if there is even one anywhere in the US, and then live like that now …

 

[my blog]

by Steven G. Erickson (8 articles, 0 quicklinks, 57 diaries, 218 comments [3 recommended, 0 rejected]) on Wednesday, Nov 12, 2008 at 10:00:43 PM

Recommend  (0+)

I have no respect for an accomplice

to Treason and War Crimes, while the wife and political party swappin B rated senile sap Ronald Reagan administration fomented the weapons for cocaine Iran-Contra scandle.

This pathetic GOP "Greed & Oppression Party" Reagan administration helped facilitate the financial quagmire the USA currently finds itself in, spending trillions of dollars on "Star Wars" missile defense that can't hit a thing without pre-trajectory information.

Just WTF do they mean when they talk about a "Peace Dividend" when the Pentagon budget has always had increases, while the Reagan administration had not one iota to do with the collapse of the former USSR,  bloating the size of government and wasteful deficit spending your great-grandchildren of "Loved Ones" will still only be paying a fraction of the interest of the total debt.

Russia is now a leaner, meaner fighting machine and is beginning to bite back at a cash-strapped, military demoralized US fighting force, under the self-appointed leadership of an AWOL/Deserter convicted drunk driver who won't disclose the last time he's done cocaine, and his multi-convicted drunk driving 5 Vietnam deferment Buckshot Dick. Who would not be the VP if this felon had been in jail where he belonged with his being a part of the unpatriotic Reagan administration.

Then there was the championing of deregulation by the criminal Reagan administration that caused the S & L scandle and Junk bond scandle that followed on its heels, and the rest of the dot.com, sub-prime, and the present 700+ billion $ bailout to boot. 

Rewarding golden parachutes to the "Financial Wizards" who should be in prison.

If the felons of the Reagan administration had been in prison as "Enemy Combatant's" then the Bu$h II self-appointed administration would have never materialized to wreck such havoc and mayhem upon the law abiding, tax paying patriotic American citizen.

by Stanimal (2 articles, 226 quicklinks, 38 diaries, 1254 comments [234 recommended, 2 rejected]) on Wednesday, Nov 12, 2008 at 11:29:43 PM

Recommend  (0+)

Thank you very much

We are blessed indeed to have your clear and forceful thoughts expressed here on OpEdNews.

 My question to you:  Do you have any thoughts on the American Monetary Act promoted by the American Monetary Institute and, if so, then would you share them with us?

 For those not familiar with AMI -- see http://www.monetary.org/

by Alan Donelson (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 1 diaries, 86 comments [5 recommended, 0 rejected]) on Thursday, Nov 13, 2008 at 2:22:54 AM

Recommend  (0+)

Finally, somebody that gets it

Very good article..

Here is one I wrote yesterday at http://www.KeepAmericaAtWork.com titled "Polls"

Polls,

You love them or you hate them or in my case, you distrust them because they don't provide the detail so that you can verify the accuracy of the data.

But on the other hand, I'm noticing some interesting things in the "Employed" poll that I am running this month.

As of right this minute we have:

  • 19 employed for 57.6 %
  • 7 unemployed for 21.2 %
  • 5 looking for 15.2%
  • 2 gave up for 6.1 %

Now according to the cia's web site we have about 300 million people in america, so lets divide that into 3 age groups.

Lets make the assumption that 100 million are under the age of 18 which leaves 200 million.

So we have an age group from 18 - 98 and 200 million people

A lot of people either retired at 65 or possibly were forced to retire at 65 which leaves from a total of 70 working years:

  • 33 years of retired people and
  • 37 years of working people

That is awful close to 50 % this early in the morning.

So these rough numbers tell me we should have 100 million working and 100 million retired as approximate numbers.

Now I read in one of the government reports a while back that our government uses 150 million workers which makes me wonder how they arrived at that number, but thats another topic at a later date.

So we have 100 million workers, now lets deal with the numbers above and we'll add the 19 employed and the 5 looking for a total of 24 working and we'll add the numbers of 7 unemployed and 2 gave up for a total of 9

So now we have the numbers of 24 and 9 which gives us 33

So now we will divide 100 million by 33 and we get 3,030,303 per number

So now we're going to multiply 3,030,303 times 24 and we get a working population of 72,727,273

And now we're going to multiply 3,030,303 times 9 and we get a unemployed populaton of 27,272,727

Damn, does that give us an unemployed percentage of 28 % instead of the 6 % our experts are telling us.

Now do you see why our economy and the economy of all the democratic countries is suffering right now ?

As for you other democratic countries, run the numbers on your own country and if your leaders have followed America's lead and sent your jobs offshore, then that will explain why you're going through the same problems we are.

by Virgil Bierschwale (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 4 comments) on Thursday, Nov 13, 2008 at 5:38:48 AM

Recommend  (0+)

The crisis emanates from the banking system

The crisis is beyond the reach of traditional solutions because the crisis is deeper than the traditional economic problems that can be addressed by tweaking policy. The crisis is in the foundation of the system itself. As Bill McKibben's book "Deep Economy" argues, the issue lies in the economy's requirement for endless growth; that growth is always good. Endless growth is necessitated by our banking system, which creates money through debt then multiplies the debt through interest. The crisis is beyond the reach of traditional solutions because criticism of the banking system is always "off the table". Mike Montagne identifies interest as the essence, the core, of our economy's destiny of self-destruction, since, as he says, "any monetary system subject to 'interest' ultimately terminates itself by inherently and irreversibly multiplying debt in proportion to a circulation until sustainable commerce can no longer afford to service a terminal sum of debt". www.perfecteconomy.com. We can't grow the economy out of this predicament because that requires infinite monetization of goods and services: "The crisis we are facing today arises from the fact that there is almost no more social, cultural, natural, and spiritual capital left to convert into money. Centuries, millennia of near-continuous money creation has left us so destitute that we have nothing left to sell. Our forests are damaged beyond repair, our soil depleted and washed into the sea, our fisheries fished out, the rejuvenating capacity of the earth to recycle our waste saturated. Our cultural treasury of songs and stories, images and icons, has been looted and copyrighted. Any clever phrase you can think of is already a trademarked slogan. Our very human relationships and abilities have been taken away from us and sold back, so that we are now dependent on strangers, and therefore on money, for things few humans ever paid for until recently: food, shelter, clothing, entertainment, child care, cooking. Life itself has become a consumer item. Today we sell away the last vestiges of our divine bequeathment: our health, the biosphere and genome, even our own minds. This is the process that is culminating in our age. It is almost complete, especially in America and the "developed" world. In the developing world there still remain people who live substantially in gift cultures, where natural and social wealth is not yet the subject of property. Globalization is the process of stripping away these assets, to feed the money machine's insatiable, existential need to grow. Yet this stripmining of other lands is running up against its limits too, both because there is almost nothing left to take, and because of growing pockets of effective resistance." ["Money and the Crisis of Civilization" by Charles Eisenstein at www.hopedance.org/cms/content/view/556/113/]

by Jim Eldon (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 253 comments [15 recommended, 0 rejected]) on Thursday, Nov 13, 2008 at 8:24:25 AM

Recommend  (0+)

What about the FED?

One of the main things we could do is get rid of the FED. We get our money back we can tell Paulson and his ilk we have a jail cell waiting for them.

END the FED - Nov 22nd

http://www.endthefed.us/

by Mr M (8 articles, 0 quicklinks, 66 diaries, 2845 comments [654 recommended, 27 rejected]) on Thursday, Nov 13, 2008 at 2:14:43 PM

Recommend  (0+)

Republican with understanding

For years i have been predicting a depression.Reagans global economy has finally killed America.We do not produce much except weapons our biggest export.The result of the global economy is millions out of work,incomes drastically cut and a permanent trade deficit we can 't afford.Roberts is right we must bring the conmpanies back to the US or we are forever doomed.If we can"t get the greedy sob's to come back the government should finance building our own companies and putting a high tariff on foreign imports  we are making in the US.military and foreign aid should be slashed to the bone.I do disagree with not supporting massive building programs to put Americans to work until we can rebuild our industries.Tax rebates won"t help,they give momentary relief but further add to our debt

by liberalsrock (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 257 comments [53 recommended, 0 rejected]) on Thursday, Nov 13, 2008 at 3:42:58 PM

Recommend  (0+)

Both Political Parties Are Responsible For This Mess!!!

Both parties bought in to free trade which resulted in American jobs being sent overseas to countries where people work for food.  The real wage has declined steadily since the free trade policy began. 

I agree that businesses should have incentives to employ Americans, but a value added tax is much harder, more expensive, and more burdensome than the traditional incentive of tariffs.  All imports should be taxed at higher rates, and goods produced in America should not be taxed at the corporate level as that is passed on to the consumer just like a regressive sales tax. 

Both parties also have undermined our justice system and allowed a bloated, overly expensive, corrupt, and intrusive government to dampen the incentive to invest much as high tax rates once did.  A just, responsible, and streamlined government must be restored.  For the quickest way to do this, see the first comment to Senate Bailout a.k.a. Bank Robbery Bill

Finally, both parties have allowed cartels to develop in virtually every market.  Cartels extract monopolistic prices from their consumers and lead to a less efficient allocation and distribution of resources.  The Anti-Trust laws need to be enforced, and the cartels need to be broken up in every industry.   

by Mark Adams (20 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 312 comments [39 recommended, 0 rejected]) on Thursday, Nov 13, 2008 at 6:02:16 PM

Recommend  (0+)

 
Want to post your own comment on this Article? Post Comment


 

Most Popular Articles
in the Last 2 Days
(by Recommend Emails)

Health Insurance Exec Whistleblower Wendell Potter Testifies Before Congress by Wendell Potter

Roger Williams, UK Parliament Member, Applauds Reinvestigation of Aspartame's Neurotoxicity by Stephen Fox

Women's Friendships Lift Moods, Save Lives by Elayne Clift

Cynthia McKinney and the Spirit of Humanity Crew are captured and detained by the Israel Navy by Cynthia McKinney

Most Americans stupid as a box of rocks as to overpopulation: On American sustainability--Anatomy of Societal Collapse by Frosty Wooldridge

North Korea – Impending Missile Launch May Require US Military Action by Steven Leser

We Must Stop the Rampant Fraud in the Health Care Industry by Bernie Sanders

REPORTING FROM HONDURAS: Hondurans Call Out for Help from the International Community by Medea Benjamin

Rothschild's Federal Reserve Must Be Abolished by Allen L Roland

Single-Payers Crashing the Gates by Marcy Winograd

Go To Top 50 Most Popular

 

Tell a Friend: Tell A Friend

Copyright © 2002-2009, OpEdNews

Powered by Populum