There's Something in the Air

Some thoughts;

Before the massive flight of thousands exploded from the trees, a few early flyers took off ahead of the flock. Then a bigger number, maybe a dozen, winged from one tree to the next. Then, there was a tipping point and that's when the sky blackened and the air vibrated with the thousands rising at once. 

Don't you think humans operate this way too? Innovators get things started. Then, a few early adopters try out new ideas, new things. Then, well, let's grab this description of the process from wikipedia:

The Everett Rogers Diffusion of innovations theory - for any given product category, there are five categories of product adopters:

* Innovators – venturesome, educated, multiple info sources;
* Early adopters – social leaders, popular, educated;
* Early majority – deliberate, many informal social contacts;
* Late majority – skeptical, traditional, lower socio-economic status;
* Laggards – neighbours and friends are main info sources, fear of debt.
 

 Crossing the Chasm model developed by Geoffrey Moore - This is basically a modification of Everett Rogers' theory applied to technology markets and with a chasm added. According to Moore, the marketer should focus on one group of customers at a time, using each group as a base for marketing to the next group. The most difficult step is making the transition between visionaries (early adopters) and pragmatists (early majority). This is the chasm that he refers to. If successful, a firm can create a bandwagon effect in which the momentum builds and the product becomes a de facto standard.

 Funny. No technology here. Just birds migrating south, due south, in the case of "my" birds. And there were "chasms"-- the open spaces between the trees. 

We see the same kind of movements with schools of fish. These start, not with powerful leaders, but rather, it's my guess, with antsy, skittish critters-- the ones which are more sensitive to cues in the environment. This is nature operating from the bottom up. The canaries in the migrating flock start with a trickle then explode in the air, for a flash, then settle back into the trees, into the field again. And they do this probably thousands of times. 

Is the process of waking up, of moving to the left or right really that different? But with humans, we don't really seem to have any clear leaders, but we do have the bloggers, today, to be the  innovators and we have the media to transmit the message to the early adopters and early majority. 

Listen. Can you hear it? There's a new, brighter future rising.

 

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