Gaming for the Fiery Tomorrow

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By Mathew Maavak (about the author) Page 1 of 3 page(s)

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For OpEdNews: Mathew Maavak - Writer

Folly in Our Times

As the US-Iran standoff escalates toward its inevitable denouement, analysts are busily gaming scenarios that may lead to the commencement of hostilities.

Only the naive take solace in the illusion of peace, for it will take nothing less than a miracle of biblical proportions for either peace or de-escalation to prevail.

And an accident is all that is needed to unleash hell on earth. The current "long-awaited" anti-insurgent crackdown in Baghdad might do the trick, or intel gleaned from an arrested Iranian envoy.

Tiny windows for de-escalation had opened briefly, only to be shut forever. Iraq is now a practice ground for a wider sectarian conflict simmering throughout the Middle East, one that will not be confined to the emerging Sunni and Shiite crescents.

Even if the US Army exits Iraq, as urged by the peace camp, there is no room now for an Arab League force to fill the void. Sectarian suspicions have hit a murderous plateau, beyond which is the Valley of Megiddo.

Perversely, those who preach morality to Washington are harking back to those halcyon days when Saddam Hussein checked Iran -- and Iraq and Kuwait -- through wars, murders and tyranny. Few dare argue that once the Tikritis exit, Apocalypse would make a bid to reign. But in case Uncle Sam did find a replacement killer, the same lot would have delivered a sermon on "US imperialism."

Human folly never ceases and neither do claptrap punditries lacking substance and solution. The pre-emptive "Stop the Iran War" chant we are hearing now means more US troops will still be needed to confine bloodletting to within Iraqi borders. But what if Iran swaps nuke enrichment for tree-hugging tomorrow? Would that bring peace to Iraq? Or a difference to the lives of US soldiers who are picked off by Sunni militants?

Prince Turki al-Faisal, the former Saudi ambassador to the United States, underscored a barely published reality during an Oct. 30 conference in Washington: "Since America came into Iraq uninvited, it should not leave Iraq uninvited."

No nation, anywhere can withstand the horrific consequences.

Underlying the current standoff is the question of sectarian power in the Middle East, and stable energy supplies for the rest of the world. Tehran's nuclear program -- though ominous -- will be yet another shill for conflict. The Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) began with the failed Nojeh Coup, hatched by Baghdad, Amman and Washington to displace the theocracy of Ayatollah Khomeini.

It is painfully clich�d theme in a region where the will of the Divine is unquestionably supreme, with the caveat that such omnipotent powers need human intervention for justice a.k.a suppression and murder. If the Battle of Karbala in 680AD cannot be resolved till today, there is always tomorrow.

The Day After Tomorrow

The Iranians understand the potential fire and brimstone pounding in store, but equally believe that like Samson, they can knock down the pillars of the global economy, beginning with an oil-gutted Straits of Hormuz.

This reasoning is pretty much rational for a state faced with ruination, humiliation, and perhaps extinction in its present form. Next door Iraq has missed the opportunity for a viable trifurcation into Sunni, Shi'ite and Kurdish zones.

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