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February 10, 2008 at 09:05:25

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The Rising Risk of Systemic Financial Meltdown

by Chalmers Johnson & Nouriel Roubini (Posted by Richard Clark)     Page 1 of 3 page(s)

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Why the US really has gone broke 

By Chalmers Johnson

 

Feb 4, 2008,

 

The economic disaster that is military Keynesianism

 

Global confidence in the US economy has reached zero, as was proved by last month’s stock market meltdown.  But there is an enormous anomaly in the US economy above and beyond the subprime mortgage crisis, the housing bubble and the prospect of recession: 60 years of misallocation of resources, and borrowings, to the establishment and maintenance of a military-industrial complex as the basis of the nation’s economic life.

 

The military adventurers in the Bush administration have much in common with the corporate leaders of the defunct energy company Enron.  Both groups thought that they were the “smartest guys in the room” — the title of Alex Gibney’s prize-winning film on what went wrong at Enron.  The neoconservatives in the White House and the Pentagon outsmarted themselves.  They failed even to address the problem of how to finance their schemes of imperialist wars and global domination.

 

As a result, going into 2008, the United States finds itself in the anomalous position of being unable to pay for its own elevated living standards or its wasteful, overly large military establishment.  Its government no longer even attempts to reduce the ruinous expenses of maintaining huge standing armies, replacing the equipment that seven years of wars have destroyed or worn out, or preparing for a war in outer space against unknown adversaries.  Instead, the Bush administration puts off these costs for future generations to pay or repudiate.  This fiscal irresponsibility has been disguised through many manipulative financial schemes (causing poorer countries to lend us unprecedented sums of money), but the time of reckoning is fast approaching.

 

There are three broad aspects to the US debt crisis.  First, in the current fiscal year (2008) we are spending insane amounts of money on “defense” projects that bear no relation to the national security of the US.  We are also keeping the income tax burdens on the richest segment of the population at strikingly low levels.

 

Second, we continue to believe that we can compensate for the accelerating erosion of our base and our loss of jobs to foreign countries through massive military expenditures — “military Keynesianism” (which I discuss in detail in my book Nemesis: The Last Days of the American Republic).  By that, I mean the mistaken belief that public policies focused on frequent wars, huge expenditures on weapons and munitions, and large standing armies can indefinitely sustain a wealthy capitalist economy.  The opposite is actually true.

 

Third, in our devotion to militarism (despite our limited resources), we are failing to invest in our social infrastructure and other requirements for the long-term health of the US.  These are what economists call opportunity costs, things not done because we spent our money on something else.  Our public education system has deteriorated alarmingly.  We have failed to provide health care to all our citizens and neglected our responsibilities as the world’s number one polluter.  Most important, we have lost our competitiveness as a manufacturer for civilian needs, an infinitely more efficient use of scarce resources than arms manufacturing.

 

Fiscal disaster

 

It is virtually impossible to overstate the profligacy of what our government spends on the military.  The Department of Defense’s planned expenditures for the fiscal year 2008 are larger than all other nations’ military budgets combined.  The supplementary budget to pay for the current wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, not part of the official defense budget, is itself larger than the combined military budgets of Russia and China.  Defense-related spending for fiscal 2008 will exceed $1 trillion for the first time in history.  The US has become the largest single seller of arms and munitions to other nations on Earth.  Leaving out President Bush’s two on-going wars, defense spending has doubled since the mid-1990s.  The defense budget for fiscal 2008 is the largest since the Second World War.

 

Before we try to break down and analyze this gargantuan sum, there is one important caveat.  Figures on defense spending are notoriously unreliable.  The numbers released by the Congressional Reference Service and the Congressional Budget Office do not agree with each other.  Robert Higgs, senior fellow for political economy at the Independent Institute, says: “A well-founded rule of thumb is to take the Pentagon’s (always well publicized) basic budget total and double it” (1).  Even a cursory reading of newspaper articles about the Department of Defense will turn up major differences in statistics about its expenses.  Some 30-40% of the defense budget is “black”,” meaning that these sections contain hidden expenditures for classified projects.  There is no possible way to know what they include or whether their total amounts are accurate.

 

There are many reasons for this budgetary sleight-of-hand — including a desire for secrecy on the part of the president, the secretary of defense, and the military-industrial complex — but the chief one is that members of Congress, who profit enormously from defense jobs and pork-barrel projects in their districts, have a political interest in supporting the Department of Defense.  In 1996, in an attempt to bring accounting standards within the executive branch closer to those of the civilian economy, Congress passed the Federal Financial Management Improvement Act.  It required all federal agencies to hire outside auditors to review their books and release the results to the public.  Neither the Department of Defense, nor the Department of Homeland Security, has ever complied.  Congress has complained, but not penalized either department for ignoring the law.  All numbers released by the Pentagon should be regarded as suspect.

 

http://axisoflogic.com/artman/publish/article_25997.shtml

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6 comments

Darren Wolfe is the former Eastern Vice Chair of the Libertarian Party of Pennsylvania. He grew up in Puerto Rico and lived in Venezuela for seven years, including the first year of Chavez' rule. His articles have appeared in OpEdNews.com, the Libertarian Penn, and the Nolanchart.com. News services such as the New York Post.com and Rational Review have published links to his work.

Anyone interested in a good game of chess can challenge me below, if you dare. LOL

http://...

to see more of bio, click on member name

Darren WolfeDarren Wolfe is the former Eastern Vice Chair of the Libertarian Party of Pennsylvania. He grew up in Puerto Rico and lived in Venezuela for seven years, including the first year of Chavez' rule. His articles have appeared in OpEdNews.com, the Libertarian Penn, and the Nolanchart.com. News services such as the New York Post.com and Rational Review have published links to his work.

Anyone interested in a good game of chess can challenge me below, if you dare. LOL

http://...

to see more of bio, click on member name

"Home prices could sink an additional 25%"

The Austrian economists have been talking about this for some time. The author quoted below even mentions the idea of a 20% drop in home values:

 

Housing: Too Good to be True

By Mark Thornton Posted on 6/4/2004

(snip)

Housing bubbles typically do not pop like a balloon; they don't even crash like stock markets. Rather, the air in housing bubbles tends to leak out slowly—painfully slowly—while in commercial real estate markets there is a more noticeable hiss. We really don't know the current value of our homes until we sell them. They are not traded on a daily basis, like shares of stock in Wal-Mart. Some never get exchanged in the market, but are passed on within a family from generation to generation. The market value of a home may drop 20% and the owner might never realize it.

Worse yet, when the market for real estate collapses, prices are less likely to collapse because when buyers fail to make offers houses simply don't sell. Sellers often resist cutting their prices in favor of just leaving the house on the market or taking it off the market. Traditionally the market adjustment to a collapse in real estate markets has come from the quantity side, not the price side—fewer houses are sold—while price reductions tend to come gradually. This doesn't mean that housing bubbles can't exist or that the bust is any less painful, only that it doesn't make as much noise.

(snip)

http://www.mises.org/article.aspx?Id=1533

by Darren Wolfe (7 articles, 201 quicklinks, 106 diaries, 780 comments) on Sunday, February 10, 2008 at 10:36:25 AM
 


Mike Folkerth is the author of "The Biggest Lie Ever Believed" and is not your run-of-the-mill author of finance and economics.

The former real estate broker, developer, private real estate fund manager, auctioneer, Alaskan bush pilot, restaurateur, U.S. Navy veteran, heavy equipment operator, taxi cab driver, fishing guide, horse packer and few jobs too embarrassing to mention, writes from experience and plain common sense.

Mike’s humorous systems of “Mikeronomics” ...

to see more of bio, click on member name

Mike FolkerthMike Folkerth is the author of "The Biggest Lie Ever Believed" and is not your run-of-the-mill author of finance and economics.

The former real estate broker, developer, private real estate fund manager, auctioneer, Alaskan bush pilot, restaurateur, U.S. Navy veteran, heavy equipment operator, taxi cab driver, fishing guide, horse packer and few jobs too embarrassing to mention, writes from experience and plain common sense.

Mike’s humorous systems of “Mikeronomics” ...

to see more of bio, click on member name

I agree

that we are in for a long ride downhill and for Middle America it could be permanent. The U.S. has reached zenith in our Ponsi scheme economic basis.

What the government spends on what is hardly relevant to our current situation. The real root cause is an economy based on exponential growth in a finite world, a mathematically impossible scenario, but then when did Americans let math get in the way of a new SUV?

by Mike Folkerth (120 articles, 0 quicklinks, 2 diaries, 566 comments) on Sunday, February 10, 2008 at 12:56:29 PM
 


Several years after receiving my M.A. in social science (interdisciplinary studies) I was an instructor at S.F. State University for a year, but then went back to designing automated machinery, and then tech writing, in Silicon Valley. I've always been more interested in political economics and what's going on behind the scenes in politics, than in mechanical engineering, and because of that I've rarely worked more than 6 months a year, devoting much of the rest of the year to reading and writ...

to see more of bio, click on member name

Richard ClarkSeveral years after receiving my M.A. in social science (interdisciplinary studies) I was an instructor at S.F. State University for a year, but then went back to designing automated machinery, and then tech writing, in Silicon Valley. I've always been more interested in political economics and what's going on behind the scenes in politics, than in mechanical engineering, and because of that I've rarely worked more than 6 months a year, devoting much of the rest of the year to reading and writ...

to see more of bio, click on member name

It's All Downhill From Here?

It's All Downhill From Here,     by Mike Whitney 

'On January 14, 2008 the FDIC web site began posting the rules forreimbursing depositors in the event of a bank failure:

http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/financial/2008/fil08002.html#body

 The implication is clear, the FDIC has begun the “death watch” on the many banks which are currently drowning in their own red ink.  The problem for the FDIC is that it has never supervised a bank failure which exceeded 175,000 accounts.  Today some of the larger banks have more than 50 million depositors, which will make the FDIC's job nearly impossible.    

 Good luck. 

The FDIC won't reimburse uninsured depositors if it means increasing the loss to the deposit insurance fund....As a result, uninsured depositors are protected only if a bank acquiring the failed bank will pay more for all of the deposits than it would for insured deposits only.” (MarketWatch) 

Great.  That's reassuring.  And there's more, too.  FDIC Chairman Shiela Bair warned that “as of Sept. 30, there were 65 institutions with assets of $18.5 billion on its list of "problem" institutions. 

So, what does it all mean?

It means there's going to be an unprecedented wave of bank closures in the US and that people who want to hold on to their life savings are going have to be extra vigilant as the situation continues to deteriorate.  And it is deteriorating very quickly. 

Right now, many of the country's largest investment banks are holding $500 billion in mortgage-backed securities and other structured investments that are steadily depreciating in value.  As these assets wear-away the banks' capital, the likelihood of default becomes greater.  This week, Fitch Ratings announced that it will (probably) cut ratings on the 5 main bond insurers (Ambac, MBIA, FGIC, CIFG,SCA)“regardless of their capital levels”.  This seemingly innocuous statement has roiled markets and put Wall Street in a panic.  If the bond insurers lose their AAA rating (on an estimated $2.4 trillion of bonds) then the banks could lose another $70 billion in downgraded assets.  That would increase their losses from the credit crunch--which began in August 2007---to $200 billion with no end in sight. 

The market for structured debt-instruments has evaporated overnight, leaving a massive hole in the banks' balance sheets.  The likely outcome will be a rash of defaults followed by greater consolidation of the major players.   The Fed's multi-billion bailout plan -- the “Temporary Auction Facility” (TAF) -- is a quick-fix, but not a permanent solution.  The real problem is insolvency, not liquidity. 

The smaller banks are dire straights, too.  They're bogged down with commercial and residential loans that are defaulting faster than anytime since the Great Depression. 

Surprisingly, there's an even bigger threat to the financial system than these staggering losses at the banks.  A default by one of the big bond insurers could trigger a meltdown in the Credit-Default Swaps market, which could lead to the implosion of trillions of dollars in derivatives bets.  The inability of the under-capitalized monolines (bond insurers) to “make good” on their coverage is likely to set the first domino in motion by  increasing the number of downgrades on bond issues and intensifying the credit-paralysis which already is spreading throughout the system. 

MSN Money's financial analyst Jim Jubak:

 

 "The total value of all CDS (credit-default swap) contracts is something like $450trillion.....  Some studies have put the real credit risk at just 6% of the total, or about $27 trillion.  That puts the CDS market at somewhere between two and six times the size of the U.S.  economy." 

 All it will take in the CDS market is enough buyers and sellers deciding they can't rely on this insurance anymore for junk-bond prices to tumble and for companies to find it very expensive or impossible to raise money in this market."

 http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Archives2008/WhitneyDeathWatch.html   

by Richard Clark (25 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 89 comments) on Sunday, February 10, 2008 at 1:28:56 PM
 


Darren Wolfe is the former Eastern Vice Chair of the Libertarian Party of Pennsylvania. He grew up in Puerto Rico and lived in Venezuela for seven years, including the first year of Chavez' rule. His articles have appeared in OpEdNews.com, the Libertarian Penn, and the Nolanchart.com. News services such as the New York Post.com and Rational Review have published links to his work.

Anyone interested in a good game of chess can challenge me below, if you dare. LOL

http://...

to see more of bio, click on member name

Darren WolfeDarren Wolfe is the former Eastern Vice Chair of the Libertarian Party of Pennsylvania. He grew up in Puerto Rico and lived in Venezuela for seven years, including the first year of Chavez' rule. His articles have appeared in OpEdNews.com, the Libertarian Penn, and the Nolanchart.com. News services such as the New York Post.com and Rational Review have published links to his work.

Anyone interested in a good game of chess can challenge me below, if you dare. LOL

http://...

to see more of bio, click on member name

Re: It's All Downhill From Here?

I'm reminded of the banking crisis in Venezuela in the mid 90's. I lived there from '93 to '00. In '94 they bailed out many of the major banks by printing a lot of money. By '96 inflation was at 105% & GDP growth was negative from '94 thru '96. All this mess is what unfortunately brought Chavez to power.

Let's hope it doesn't get so bad here.

 

by Darren Wolfe (7 articles, 201 quicklinks, 106 diaries, 780 comments) on Sunday, February 10, 2008 at 6:45:37 PM
 


Mike Folkerth is the author of "The Biggest Lie Ever Believed" and is not your run-of-the-mill author of finance and economics.

The former real estate broker, developer, private real estate fund manager, auctioneer, Alaskan bush pilot, restaurateur, U.S. Navy veteran, heavy equipment operator, taxi cab driver, fishing guide, horse packer and few jobs too embarrassing to mention, writes from experience and plain common sense.

Mike’s humorous systems of “Mikeronomics” ...

to see more of bio, click on member name

Mike FolkerthMike Folkerth is the author of "The Biggest Lie Ever Believed" and is not your run-of-the-mill author of finance and economics.

The former real estate broker, developer, private real estate fund manager, auctioneer, Alaskan bush pilot, restaurateur, U.S. Navy veteran, heavy equipment operator, taxi cab driver, fishing guide, horse packer and few jobs too embarrassing to mention, writes from experience and plain common sense.

Mike’s humorous systems of “Mikeronomics” ...

to see more of bio, click on member name

inflation

is given. Hyperinflation may be more correct. Most of the terrible effect of this purposely induced inflation will come in 2009.

It's time to get your money into something tangible. As real estate cranks down in value today, it will go up with inflation tomorrow. As will machinery, building materials, food, fuel, water, and any other tangible and necessary element to life.

by Mike Folkerth (120 articles, 0 quicklinks, 2 diaries, 566 comments) on Monday, February 11, 2008 at 8:27:48 AM
 


Several years after receiving my M.A. in social science (interdisciplinary studies) I was an instructor at S.F. State University for a year, but then went back to designing automated machinery, and then tech writing, in Silicon Valley. I've always been more interested in political economics and what's going on behind the scenes in politics, than in mechanical engineering, and because of that I've rarely worked more than 6 months a year, devoting much of the rest of the year to reading and writ...

to see more of bio, click on member name

Richard ClarkSeveral years after receiving my M.A. in social science (interdisciplinary studies) I was an instructor at S.F. State University for a year, but then went back to designing automated machinery, and then tech writing, in Silicon Valley. I've always been more interested in political economics and what's going on behind the scenes in politics, than in mechanical engineering, and because of that I've rarely worked more than 6 months a year, devoting much of the rest of the year to reading and writ...

to see more of bio, click on member name

Can a a Systemic Financial Meltdown be avoided?

Can the Fed and Policy Makers Avoid a Systemic Financial Meltdown?  Most Likely Not.

 

 by Nouriel Roubini 

Since in the previous article I described a 12 steps scenarios towards a financial meltdown and a deep recession the crucial policy question is whether the Fed and other policy officials can prevent such a scenario of a systemic financial crisis.   I will present in this article the eight reasons why I am skepticalthat such a systemic risk scenario can be avoided…

 http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/242906/

by Richard Clark (25 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 89 comments) on Monday, February 11, 2008 at 1:57:07 PM
 

 

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