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The Coming Attack on Iran: A Perfect Storm of Madness
By Bernard Weiner (about the author) Page 1 of 3 page(s)
For OpEdNews: Bernard Weiner - Writer
The question is not whether Iran will be attacked, but by whom and whether the bombing will commence within the next several months or shortly after the November election.
The U.S. for many months has made bellicose noises about thwarting Iran's nuclear ambitions with force -- complete with a virtual repeat of its pre-war propaganda campaign prior to "shock&awe" against Iraq. Israel is reported to have just carried out a military exercise practicing for an attack on Iran. Iran is letting it be known how destructive and unconventional its retaliation would be if it is bombed. What is going on?
Though one can decry it, at least one can understand why Israel, just a short missile flight from Iran, might want to take "pre-emptive" action against that country were it to possess nuclear-weapons capabilities. But what's driving the neocons in the White House to push so insistently for an attack on Iran?
It seems clear that Cheney and Bush want Iran's nascent civilian nuclear program taken out now before it could become operational in a military sense five or ten years down the road. If this is true, why would the Administration have wanted to attack Iraq?
For decades, you may remember, Iraq was the buffer between an ambitious, strengthening Iran and the West's strategic interests in the Middle East, and for that reason the U.S. under Reagan helped Saddam in his war against his country's Iranian neighbor. But with Iraq sinking into military/economic irrelevance after what Cheney and Bush have done to ruin that country, Iran not suprisingly is filling the political and military vacuum in that Islamic region of the Greater Middle East.
The neocons argue that if Iran is not stopped now, America will lose all hopes of future influence and control in the oil-rich region. Iran would become one of the most powerful, and likely anti-U.S., players in the Greater Middle East, with all the military, economic and oil-based implications that such hegemonic power brings with it. In short, say the neocons, it's vital to stop Iran in its tracks now while the stopping is still possible. Once Iran has operational nuclear-tipped missiles -- which could be a mere ten years down the line, or less -- the entire equation would change.
THE HAWKS PREPARE
The neocons believe that if Iran is attacked by the U.S. and/or Israel, it could retaliate with missiles and asymmetrical warfare, but, given the firepower of U.S. and Israeli forces, its long-range military strength would be severely diminished for at least a decade or two, with little ability to successfully exercise its political authority in the region. Syria, another possible competitor for top-dog influence in the region, might try to fill the bill or, more likely, might well back off, seeing what its enemies did to both Iraq and Iran.
In short, from the neo-con hawk perspective, now is the perfect time to launch a "pre-emptive" air-attack on Iran. This is the case even though CheneyBush cannot produce any conclusive evidence that Iran is working on military uses of nuclear energy; that may be in their long-range plan but, by and large, the U.S. is basing its antagonism on speculation and future fears. In short, there does not appear to be any kind of imminent Iranian threat to the U.S. or to other countries in the region. (Absent an imminent threat, an attack on a sovereign nation is regarded as illegal under international law, perhaps even a war crime.)
The Republicans also note that along with the quagmire in Iraq, a war with Iran would ensure that the new American President would find himself hogtied in Iran and to a diplomatic/military/economic policy in the Greater Middle East from which it would be difficult to disentangle. Also, both presidential candidates are firm supporters of Israel and have indicated they'd be open to taking military action against Iran to stop it from obtaining nuclear weapons, the difference being that McCain is more amenable to going forthrightly into a shootin' match, while Obama is willing to try diplomacy first without taking a possible attack off the table.
In short, given the complexities of what's at stake in the region, and how Bush&Co. is trying to lead the new Administration into highly dangerous waters, the new President might fail badly, making it easier for a Republican victory in the 2010 Congressional elections and the 2112 presidential contest.
A GAME OF HIGH-STAKES "CHICKEN"?
So, there's that possible take on what is going on with regard to Iran. But what if it's all a high-stakes, all-in game of "chicken" being played out? Each side blustering, threatening an attack, but done with great restraint -- a lot of chest-beating, saber-rattling, insulting, etc., but no battles, just maneuvering to break the will of the other guy? Iran would want America to back off and let it go its own way in its own neighborhood, and the U.S. would want Iran to drop its plans for weapons-grade uranium enrichment.
Look at the situation this way: The American military, and National Guard/Reserves, are not in any mood to accept another major war, as U.S. forces around the world already are stretched way too thin and are, because of the way the troops are abused, having problems meeting their recruitment quotas. Likewise, the Pentagon chiefs are not especially crazy about initiating another war, especially against Iran, given the lack of firm evidence to support such an attack. Defense Secretary Gates keeps pumping for diplomacy with Iran and plays down any saber-rattling; Admiral William Fallon -- before he was forced to resign -- was head of Central Command and was vehemently and publicly trying to block Cheney's near-compulsion for attacking Iran. ( www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/07/07/080707fa_fact_hersh )
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