The question is not whether Iran will be attacked, but by whom and whether the bombing will commence within the next several months or shortly after the November election.
The U.S. for many months has made bellicose noises about thwarting Iran's nuclear ambitions with force -- complete with a virtual repeat of its pre-war propaganda campaign prior to "shock&awe" against Iraq. Israel is reported to have just carried out a military exercise practicing for an attack on Iran. Iran is letting it be known how destructive and unconventional its retaliation would be if it is bombed. What is going on?
Though one can decry it, at least one can understand why Israel, just a short missile flight from Iran, might want to take "pre-emptive" action against that country were it to possess nuclear-weapons capabilities. But what's driving the neocons in the White House to push so insistently for an attack on Iran?
It seems clear that Cheney and Bush want Iran's nascent civilian nuclear program taken out now before it could become operational in a military sense five or ten years down the road. If this is true, why would the Administration have wanted to attack Iraq?
For decades, you may remember, Iraq was the buffer between an ambitious, strengthening Iran and the West's strategic interests in the Middle East, and for that reason the U.S. under Reagan helped Saddam in his war against his country's Iranian neighbor. But with Iraq sinking into military/economic irrelevance after what Cheney and Bush have done to ruin that country, Iran not suprisingly is filling the political and military vacuum in that Islamic region of the Greater Middle East.
The neocons argue that if Iran is not stopped now, America will lose all hopes of future influence and control in the oil-rich region. Iran would become one of the most powerful, and likely anti-U.S., players in the Greater Middle East, with all the military, economic and oil-based implications that such hegemonic power brings with it. In short, say the neocons, it's vital to stop Iran in its tracks now while the stopping is still possible. Once Iran has operational nuclear-tipped missiles -- which could be a mere ten years down the line, or less -- the entire equation would change.
THE HAWKS PREPARE
The neocons believe that if Iran is attacked by the U.S. and/or Israel, it could retaliate with missiles and asymmetrical warfare, but, given the firepower of U.S. and Israeli forces, its long-range military strength would be severely diminished for at least a decade or two, with little ability to successfully exercise its political authority in the region. Syria, another possible competitor for top-dog influence in the region, might try to fill the bill or, more likely, might well back off, seeing what its enemies did to both Iraq and Iran.
In short, from the neo-con hawk perspective, now is the perfect time to launch a "pre-emptive" air-attack on Iran. This is the case even though CheneyBush cannot produce any conclusive evidence that Iran is working on military uses of nuclear energy; that may be in their long-range plan but, by and large, the U.S. is basing its antagonism on speculation and future fears. In short, there does not appear to be any kind of imminent Iranian threat to the U.S. or to other countries in the region. (Absent an imminent threat, an attack on a sovereign nation is regarded as illegal under international law, perhaps even a war crime.)
The Republicans also note that along with the quagmire in Iraq, a war with Iran would ensure that the new American President would find himself hogtied in Iran and to a diplomatic/military/economic policy in the Greater Middle East from which it would be difficult to disentangle. Also, both presidential candidates are firm supporters of Israel and have indicated they'd be open to taking military action against Iran to stop it from obtaining nuclear weapons, the difference being that McCain is more amenable to going forthrightly into a shootin' match, while Obama is willing to try diplomacy first without taking a possible attack off the table.
In short, given the complexities of what's at stake in the region, and how Bush&Co. is trying to lead the new Administration into highly dangerous waters, the new President might fail badly, making it easier for a Republican victory in the 2010 Congressional elections and the 2112 presidential contest.
A GAME OF HIGH-STAKES "CHICKEN"?
So, there's that possible take on what is going on with regard to Iran. But what if it's all a high-stakes, all-in game of "chicken" being played out? Each side blustering, threatening an attack, but done with great restraint -- a lot of chest-beating, saber-rattling, insulting, etc., but no battles, just maneuvering to break the will of the other guy? Iran would want America to back off and let it go its own way in its own neighborhood, and the U.S. would want Iran to drop its plans for weapons-grade uranium enrichment.
Look at the situation this way: The American military, and National Guard/Reserves, are not in any mood to accept another major war, as U.S. forces around the world already are stretched way too thin and are, because of the way the troops are abused, having problems meeting their recruitment quotas. Likewise, the Pentagon chiefs are not especially crazy about initiating another war, especially against Iran, given the lack of firm evidence to support such an attack. Defense Secretary Gates keeps pumping for diplomacy with Iran and plays down any saber-rattling; Admiral William Fallon -- before he was forced to resign -- was head of Central Command and was vehemently and publicly trying to block Cheney's near-compulsion for attacking Iran. ( www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/07/07/080707fa_fact_hersh )
In short, an attack on Iran would be almost totally a White House project with Cheney's hands all over it and is sure to engender even more retirements and then truth-telling from the resentful, angry military brass and perhaps an instantaneous upsurge of demands for impeachment of Cheney and Bush in the House.
Bernard Weiner, Ph.D. in government & international relations, has taught at universities in California and Washington, worked for two decades as a writer-editor at the San Francisco Chronicle, and currently serves as co-editor of The Crisis Papers (www.crisispapers.org).
If we invade Iran this year it will be done using hundreds of sorties by carrier based aircraft already stationed in the Persian Gulf and from land based aircraft located in Iraq and Qatar. They will strike the known nuclear facilities located in and around Tehran and the rest of the country as well as bases containing major units of the Iranian military, anti-aircraft installations and units of the Revolutionary Guard (a separate and potent Iranian para-military organization).
Will this military action stop Iran’s efforts to develop nuclear weapons? Probably not. It will probably not even destroy all of their nuclear research facilities, the most sensitive of which are known to be underground, protected by tons of earth and reinforced concrete and steel designed to survive almost all attacks using conventional munitions. The Iranian military and Revolutionary Guard will most likely survive as well, although they will suffer significant casualties and major bases and command centers will undoubtedly be destroyed. However, since Iran has both a functioning Air Force, Navy (including submarines) and modern anti-aircraft capabilities, U.S. fighter-bombers will suffer casualties as well. This will not be a "Cake Walk" as with the U.S. led invasion of Iraq in 2003 when the Iraqi Army simply melted away and the Iraqi Air Force never even launched a single aircraft.
Not even close.
If the United States attacks Iran either this summer or this fall, the American people had better be prepared for a shock that may perhaps be even greater to the national psyche (and economy) than 9/11. First of all, there will be significant U.S. casualties in the initial invasion. American jets will be shot down and the American pilots who are not killed will be taken prisoner - including female pilots. Iranian Yakhonts 26, Sunburn 22 and Exocet missiles will seek out and strike U.S. naval battle groups bottled up in the narrow waters of the Persian Gulf with very deadly results. American sailors will be killed and U.S. ships will be badly damaged and perhaps sunk. We may even witness the first attack on an American Aircraft carrier since World War II.
That’s just the opening act.
Israel (who had thus far stayed out of the fray by letting the U.S. military do the heavy lifting) is attacked by Hezbollah in a coordinated and large scale effort. Widespread and grisly casualties effectively paralyze the nation, a notion once thought impossible. Iran’s newest ally in the region, Syria, then unleashes a barrage of over 200 Scud B, C and D missiles at Israel, each armed with VX gas. Since all of Israel is within range of these Russian built weapons, Haifa, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and virtually all major civilian centers and several military bases are struck, often with a result of massive casualties.
The Israeli Air Force orders all three squadrons of their F-16I Sufa fighter/bombers into the air with orders to bomb Tehran and as many military and nuclear bases as they can before they are either shot down or run out of fuel. It is a one way trip for some of these pilots. Their ancient homeland lies in ruins. Many have family that is already dead or dying. They do not wait for permission from Washington, DC or U.S. regional military commanders. The Israeli aircraft are carrying the majority of their country’s nuclear arsenal under their wings.
Just after the first waves of U.S. bombers cross into Iranian airspace, the Iranian Navy, using shore based missiles and small, fast attack craft sinks several oil tankers in the Straits of Hormuz, sealing off the Persian Gulf and all its oil from the rest of the world. They then mine the area, making it difficult and even deadly for American minesweepers to clear the straits. Whatever is left of the Iranian Navy and Air Force harasses our Navy as it attempts minesweeping operations. More U.S casualties.
The day after the invasion Wall Street (and to a lesser extent, Tokyo, London and Frankfurt) acts as it always does in an international crisis – irrational speculative and spot buying reaches fever pitch and sends the cost of oil skyrocketing. In the immediate aftermath of the U.S. invasion of Iran, the price of oil goes to $200.00 - $300.00 dollars a barrel on the open market. If the war is not resolved in a few weeks, that price could rise even higher.This will send the price of gasoline at the pump in this country to $8.00-$10.00 per gallon immediately and subsequently to even higher unthinkable levels.
If that happens, this country shuts down. Most Americans are not be able to afford gas to go to work. Truckers pull their big rigs to the side of the road and simply walk away. Food, medicine and other critical products are not be brought to stores. Gas and electricity (what is left of the short supply) are too expensive for most people to afford. Children, the sick and elderly die from lack of air-conditioned homes and hospitals in the summer. Children, the sick and elderly die in the winter for lack of heat. There are food riots across the country. A barter system takes the place of currency and credit as the economy dissolves and banks close or limit withdrawals. Civil unrest builds.
The police are unable to contain the violence and are themselves victims of the same crisis as the rest of the population. Civilian rule dissolves and Martial Law is declared under provisions approved under the Patriot Act. Regular U.S. Army and Marine troops patrol the streets. The federal government apparatus is moved to an unknown but secure location. The United States descends into chaos and becomes a third world country. Its time as the lone superpower is over.
It doesn’t get any worse than this.
Then the first Israeli bomber drops its nuclear payload on Tehran.
by
JOHN LORENZ (17 articles, 77 quicklinks, 45 diaries, 173 comments)
on Wednesday, July 2, 2008 at 5:28:50 AM
The Dogs of War that you refer to where unleashed by the US president - Pee Nut Bustard Carter on Iranians - in the guise of A. Khomaini in 1979 - and we are still paying for that misdeed. Now go and sort that mess up before another one hits the fans.
by
Bahramerad (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 24 comments)
on Wednesday, July 2, 2008 at 8:21:29 AM
In order to demolish any resistance the Elites push for World Domination before enough people rise-up against their madness these cretins will create a situation that will leave most of the dumbed-down masses reeling.
One would think that just a total collapse of our economy would be enough, but these cretins aren't near down with us and they must act before a tipping-point of people can be educated to what's really taken place.
Along with an attack on Iran, we're looking a complete financial collapse a coming "false flag" attack and full blown Police State. Whether the powers-that-be can find enough uniformed brainwashed thugs to murder it's own citizens has been usurped by their allowing foreign troops on our land to enforce their demented plans.
We can still stop them. It's a very slim chance that we can, but all of us need to do whatever we have ability to do to stop this madness from occurring. This means going beyond what we have done in the past, for that didn't work then and it won't work this time. We all need to take it to the next level. Because if we don't stop this attack - all bets are off.
by
Mr M (4 articles, 0 quicklinks, 12 diaries, 1398 comments)
on Wednesday, July 2, 2008 at 8:26:03 AM
You can't really call it a "do nothing" Congress, can you?
Actually I would prefer a "do nothing" Congress over what we have now; as it seems to me they're doing quite a bit - to ensure the worst possible outcome.
by
Harold Smith (0 articles, 3 quicklinks, 2 diaries, 466 comments)
on Wednesday, July 2, 2008 at 8:59:19 AM
Waxing fatalistic plays into the warmongers' hands. Set your intention to stop an attack from happening. Then we will see who has the greater will power and more importantly, who is in flow with the tides of history and the universe. The universe is a universe of love beyond the picture show of this wretched planet. Get in touch with that!
by
Mac McKinney (42 articles, 67 quicklinks, 164 diaries, 1060 comments)
on Wednesday, July 2, 2008 at 3:51:14 PM
I don't expect the Neanderthals to have any contact with higher forces or energies, or whatever you want to call it, but we sure can. Greater Reality is one of harmony and love. It is real. Being in the now is real. The fools trying to direct us to war don't even live in reality. They live in the past or future and in their heads, and primarily in a state of delusional paranoia about the future. All their actions are based on subjective fantasies, which is why their little delusion about Iraq has become a trillion dollar nightmare. If we are grounded in reality we can withstand all the neocon bull.
To quote the Buddha:
Our life is shaped by our mind; we become what we think. Suffering follows an evil thought as the wheels of a cart follow the oxen that draw it.
Our life is shaped by our mind; we become what we think. Joy follows a pure thought like a shadow that never leaves.
So, if all we do is wring our hands that the neocons are going to attack Iran, then what do you think is going to follow. Change your thoughts everyone!
by
Mac McKinney (42 articles, 67 quicklinks, 164 diaries, 1060 comments)
on Thursday, July 3, 2008 at 12:31:29 AM
My Goodness the Madness Continues. It appears that the Bush Administration is intent on destroying America, along with their Democratic Cronies. America stand up and oppose this madness. If you think Gas is expensive now, God help us if Iran is attacked. The World will oppose America.
by
Rolland Miller (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 56 comments)
on Wednesday, July 2, 2008 at 4:39:58 PM
Point of the cons and the source of the madness. Israel is the most paranoid and megalomaniac state on earth. Israel has the force (money) and fraud (media) to control U.S. foreign policy. Identify by name and position the Neocons and Zionists in so many higher positions in our society. Most Americans still don't even know what a Zionist is? If you are challenged for being anti-semitic, just admit it and point out that you are also anti-every other crooked group that tries to rule us.
by
John Hanks (1 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 1186 comments)
on Wednesday, July 2, 2008 at 6:26:41 PM
These Godless bastards have no souls.Let there be no quarter given for cornering their hubristic endeavors and canceling their imperialistic, fascist, hegemonic goals.Guerilla power has been proven to defeat the redcoats.Continue to highlight and document all over the web their “positions” and “statements” of aggressive war-mongering.A large segment of mankind is sick of beingexploited, and sees these devils as the demons they are.WAR CAN NO MORE BE PAINTED AS GLORIOUS, PATRIOTIC, NATIONALISTIC, DEFENSIVE PROTECTIONISM.WAR IS HELL.WHO BRINGS IT IS THE HELLION, THE AGGRESSOR, THE PREDATOR.American’s illusions are shattered when set against the aggressive behavior of their tax-funded armies – slaughtering foreign peoples, grabbing their resources.Is it difficult to see?Is it difficult to see we say we are exporting “democracy”, while we pillage others countries and gut our Freedoms at home in the USA, subverting our Constitution?See the disconnect?!
We’re given brains to figure this stuff out.FUCK the inhumane fascist NeoCon agenda!Work out your own Salvation.Do it with wisdom, stealth and heart for other’s .
by
boomerang (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 267 comments)
on Wednesday, July 2, 2008 at 9:04:40 PM
The power behind the throne are big international corporations with all that money and still want more profits. The throne has supreme military power and wants still more power. Yes it is the madness of greed and power that is never satisfied.
The big oil companies know that oil has reached a peak in production while demand worldwide is skyrocketing. The world's economy is based on oil; and he who controls oil resources has control over governments and industry throughout the world.
Some think that the devistation that is projected from an attack on Iran would cause our government to reconsider; but the power behind the throne who are calling the shots do not care about the hardships of the peoples of the world.
So what if oil prices skyrocket and people are being hurt economically? The oil company executives are making record profits; so for them life is very good; and if they have Iran's oil their good life will last longer.
We (the US government with its' military might) are fighting to maintain the lifestyle of the rich and powerful; hence the need to fight the Oil Wars.
War on Terror - propaganda slogan to gain support for the Oil Wars.
Need to protect western civilization agains extremists (recognize that "western civilization" = international corporationsm and extremists are anyone who oppose these corporations and their policies of world domination).
by
Philip Pease (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 1 diaries, 125 comments)
on Thursday, July 3, 2008 at 9:57:33 AM
13 comments
How would you rate this?
You must be logged in (if signed up) to do ratings.
It's free to signup! And easy. And takes just a minute or two....
Must Read (
Well Said (
News (
Touching (
Funny (
Supported (
Interesting (
Inspiring (
Valuable (
