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Socialized Healthcare : A simple look

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I was wondering, what IF the data provided by the Robert Wood Johnson foundation were 100% accurate.  Let's be optimists.  I'm going to the assume the comparisons between Canada & U.S. healthcare provided by that Foundation are true.  I happen to believe that number is closer to a 10-15% possible efficiency improvement.

I haven't done the numbers, this is my first time, so come along and comment some changes or provide some alternative numbers (provide sources for numbers please) if you wish.

Assumptions:

30% reduction in overall healthcare costs by moving to a Canadian like system

U.S. GDP = 13.84 Trillion

U.S. GDP spending on healthcare = 15% of total GDP (according to 2006 WHO study) or 2.076 trillion

Canada GDP = 1.27 trillion

Canada % of GDP on healthcare = 10% (according to 2006 WHO study) or 127 billion

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I'll take the 30% efficiency at this point in one lump sum for mathmatical ease.

U.S. GDP with 30% savings from single payer system = 1.453 trillion

Ok, now how much will this cost taxpayers?

Total employed taxpaying population in Canada = 17 million

Total employed taxpaying population in the U.S. = 138 million (in 2007)

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Now lets run the numbers for Canada:

total healthcare spending divided by total taxpaying population =

127 billion divided by 17 million = $7470 per taxpayer

Now lets run the numbers for the U.S. with the adjusted 30% efficiency increase from a single payer system:

1.453 trillion divided by 138 million = $10528 per taxpayer

Without the 30% adjustment, its $15043 per taxpayer

Thoughts?  I think I used data most OEN members would feel comfortable with.

Healthcare Today, As-Is: Estimates, with minimal employer contributions

Insurance premiums or funded liablity :

Single = $300 per month

Couple or parent/child =  $675 per month

Family = $1150 per month

This is fairly reflective for employer sponsored health plans for my geographic metropolitan area (Philadelphia).  These numbers vary, but this is around the average.  Non metropolitan costs tend to be lower, but I think the quality of care is also less.  This is your typical Philadelphia HMO, no deductibles, moderate copays, $20 a doctor visit, RX, around a $250-$400 per day hospital copay.  Just for a guage.

Single person:

Let's say you are a single person who makes $40,000 per year.

Medicare tax = 2.9% = $1160 per year

Lets say your employer based healthplan costs you $150 per month = $1800/yr

Let's estimate copays and such around $1000 for ease (I personally use nowhere near $1000).

Your Healthcare cost = $3960/yr

Employer share of healthcare (via premium or funded liablity) = $150 per month or $1800/yr

Total Healthcare cost = $5760

Total Healthcare cost under single payer w/30% efficiency improvment = $10528

Couple:

Together you make $75000 per year.

Medicare tax = $2175

Employer based healthplan costs you $450 per month = $5400/yr

Copays and such equal $2000 (for ease)

Your Healthcare cost = $9575/yr

Employer share of healthcare (via premium or funded liablity) = $225 per month or $2700/yr

Total Healthcare cost = $12275/yr

Total Healthcare cost under single payer w/30% efficiency improvment = $21056 if both people work, $10528 if one income

Family:

Same as couple above but with 2 kids.

Medicare tax = $2175

Employer based healthplan costs you $800 per month = $9600/yr

Copays and such equal $3000 (for ease)

Your Healthcare cost =  $14775

Employer share of healthcare (via premium or funded liablity) = $350 per month or $4200/yr

Total Healthcare cost = $18975

Total Healthcare cost under single payer w/30% efficiency improvment = $21056 if both people work, $10528 if one income

Thoughts?

Value of covering people who can't afford coverage = ?

Yearly increase in delivering health care = around 9.8% (according to almost every consulting firm & research entity out there...we all use the same core data)

Average increase in insurance premiums per year = 10% to 14%

67% of employers (nationwide, Philadelphia is a fully insured philosophy town for various reasons) do not use insurance, they self fund, so they mirror the 9.8% cost of providing healthcare.  Minus healthcare fund interest gains, tax breaks, various rebates, etc... I think they run around 8%

P.S. - Found this out today (2/16/09), the CHIP legislation has a clause that allows states to extend subsidies to low income members of group health plans to cover the cost of their kids.  Previously, CHIP required kids be uninsured for X months.  The only way to bypass this clause was to be in a very low income situation.  We'll see what this will look like for each state, but if you're in PA and have kids, keep an eye out for it as the law goes into effect 4/1/09.

This of course adjusts some of my data above...transfering costs to the government.

 

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Thank you for those numbers they prove the point d... by Archie on Saturday, Feb 28, 2009 at 2:19:37 PM
This isn't your first time and most readers kn... by Bryan Emmel on Sunday, Mar 1, 2009 at 6:05:58 AM
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