One remark by a minor Israeli cabinet officer hinting at a possible US or Israeli attack on Iran has sent oil prices up by a record $11/barrel to a record $139 per barrel Friday. That should tell us what would happen if the Bush administration were crazy enough to attack Iran, or to let its vassal state of Israel do it.
Most analysts say an actual attack on Iran would send oil almost immediately to past $300 per barrel—a level that would strangle economies worldwide and send the world into an economic collapse not since the Smoot-Hawley Tariffs kicked off the Great Depression. The repercussions of that would be staggering.
America, which runs on oil, would grind to a halt. Gasoline and home heating oil would double or triple in price, leading to desperation in the coming winter for those living north of the Mason-Dixon line, and to a mass exodus of the elderly from Florida and Arizona, where air-conditioning would no longer be affordable.
In China, an economy almost wholly dependent upon the manufacture of goods for sale to American consumers, hundreds of millions of workers would suddenly find themselves unemployed. With their remittances to their peasant relatives halted, half the country would be kicked back to the pre-capitalist era, only without guaranteed wages, homes, food and healthcare. It is likely that unrest unprecedented since the Cultural Revolution would erupt.
The Middle East would explode.
In Iraq, Shia fighters would rise up in solidarity with their Shia neighbor, Iran, and begin attacking American forces in Iraq in earnest, probably making the Tet Offensive in 1968 Vietnam look like a picnic. Where the US had half a million troops in Vietnam in that offensive, the military is already stretched to the breaking point in Iraq, with supply lines barely defended.
It makes you wonder what is going on in the higher reaches of the US bureaucracy. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who has in the past intimated that he’s no fan of war with Iran, just sacked the two top men in the Airforce—the most gung-ho of the service branches in terms of Iran war mongering. The unprecedent surprise firing of Air Force Secretary Michael Wynne and the Air Force’s top officer, Gen. T Michael “Buzz” Moseley, was officially blamed on their poor handling of the nation’s nuclear weapons arsenal, in the wake of last year’s unauthorized and improper removal from storage and cross-country aerial transfer of six nuclear-armed cruise missiles in launch position on a B-52 Stratofortress, and the discovery this year of an earlier “inadvertent” shipment of ICBM missile warhead nuclear triggers to Taiwan. While it is possible that those two incidents were the cause of the firings, there remain serious unanswered questions about both incidents, and particularly about the cruise missile flight.
As I reported earlier on this site and in Counterpunch magazine and American Conservative magazine, there were a half dozen unexplained deaths of US airmen, including two suicides, which occurred just before and after that flight last August 30, none of which were investigated at least publicly by the Pentagon or the FBI according to local prosecutors and medical examiners contacted. A number of experts in nuclear weapons handling have said that it would be “impossible” for the six warheads to have been removed from guarded bunkers at Minot AFB in North Dakota, mounted on cruise missiles, loaded onto launch pylons under the wing of a B-52, and flown to Barksdale AFB in Louisiana, all as a “mistake.”
This leads inexorably to the question: What was being planned for those warheads, if they were not being removed from storage by mistake, and if they were being moved without the knowledge of the top brass, including Gates, at the Pentagon? Recall that the only reason anyone learned about the incident was that it was reported outside the military chain of command to a reporter at Military Times newspaper by several Air Force whistle-blowers upset by what they were seeing.
We already witnessed the sudden resignation from the post of CentCom Command of Adm. William Fallon, whose outspoken opposition to the Bush/Cheney administration’s talk of attacking Iran led to his being pushed aside in favor of the more pliant Gen. David Petraeus. Fallon was pushed out by Iran war hawks because of his opposition to an attack. Were the Air Force Secretary and Chief of Staff forced out by Gates because of their pro-attack position?
Plenty to ponder here, but the concerns of oil speculators, who have driven up the price of oil by 8.6 percent (and the stock market down by 3.2 percent) in a single day, in large part on war rumors, should have us all concerned.
It’s not just about the price of gasoline. _________________ DAVE LINDORFF is a Philadelphia-based journalist and columnist. His latest book is “The Case for Impeachment” (St. Martin’s Press, 2006 and now available in paperback edition). His work is available at www.thiscantbehappening.net
http://www.thiscantbehappening.net
Dave Lindorff, a columnist for Counterpunch, is author of several recent books ("This Can't Be Happening! Resisting the Disintegration of American Democracy" and "Killing Time: An Investigation into the Death Penalty Case of Mumia Abu-Jamal"). His latest book, coauthored with Barbara Olshanshky, is "The Case for Impeachment: The Legal Argument for Removing President George W. Bush from Office (St. Martin's Press, May 2006). His writing is available at http://www.thiscantbehappening.net
Great article. However, you missed one aspect of a possible war on Iran. Iran already has global strategic weapons of mass destruction. They have an advanced biowar program. It costs approximately $1 million dollars to kill one person via a nuclear bomb but only approximately $1 dollar to kill one person via a genetically engineered super killer virus. Dead is still dead. If we and/or the Israelis go after Iran they will use their tens of thousands of rockets in Lebanon and their medium range missiles in Iran to hit Israel with radiological weapons, chemical weapons, and advanced conventional weapons. If the attack on Iran is too strong or involves nuclear weapons they are apt to hit Israel and the West (including the United States mainland) with advanced bioweapons. We can nuke Iran till they glow and no higher form of life, higher than a cockroach, can live for several hundreds of thousands of years but they can still go on killing Americans, Canadians, Europeans, etc., long after Iran has ceased to exist as a nation state, as the released bioweapons would continue to spread using human vectors.
I wrote an article on this on OpEd late last year, titled "War on Iran = You Die From Biowar".
The picture your article paints is scary, the sad part is the reality will be far far worst.
Stirling
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Lord Stirling (24 articles, 0 quicklinks, 4 diaries, 132 comments)
on Saturday, June 7, 2008 at 3:48:01 PM
You're right on target as usual, David. Lord's follow up post was also informative. If only more people gor their news and information from this site, we would be much more enlightened, as to the dire staights our world is in. I just returned from a local theater showing of Aaron Russo's "Freedom to Fascism"...Please everyone google this video, it is well worth your time. Keep up the great writing David, there is still hope!
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ronheri (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 149 comments)
on Saturday, June 7, 2008 at 5:05:40 PM
seem to be a contradiction don't they! As for those nuclear missiles armed and ready on that B-52, was it a dereliction in duty or something far more sinister? You express some good points which leaves us with even more questions. Were they planning to clandestinely hit Iran with nuclear weapons? Or God knows, hit someone else and blame Iran for it? Were they going to plant them in the Iraq desert then discover Saddam's hidden arsenal? I put nothing past these fools! One simple mistake could be WW3 and we're in the hands of idiots! Ruthless warmongering idiots to boot!
As for the rise in oil, I see any excuse as a reason to do that. Israel has been threatening to hit Iran for decades now and even have hit them yet it never affected a rise in oil prices like this! You are right though, there is far more than meets the eye here than jacking oil prices, though jacking oil prices and a war with Iran is great for the oil corporations and is called for by the PNAC. Yes other nations will suffer but the US is not their only market and they do not have the tremendous debt we have either. We'll be hit the worst. Beyond getting blown up or massive starvation, we already are being hit the worst. People in California are spending 400 dollars a month on gas just to get to work and back. It could be 600 after the summer. This cannot last and it will not last or your worst case scenario comes true. I wonder if this isn't somehow a ploy by the oil execs to show us how much we need their oil? Are they punishing us to show us how important they really are? Or are they distracting us to hide something worse? Until we find out, I say we put our cars in the garage, turn off the engine and tell all of our bosses and creditors we'll get back to them when we can afford gasoline.
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Michael Shaw (7 articles, 1 quicklinks, 1 diaries, 328 comments)
on Saturday, June 7, 2008 at 6:10:14 PM
I've been taking Arlo Guthrie's song Unemployment live seriously for 14 years now. Not my first choice to do it alone. For if only one person sits on the group w bench, those in authority will just think he is sick, those who know him will agree with the authority too.
After talking to my Aunt last month; we have some tough nuts to crack. She says she doesn't care how much the rich make. It has no effect on here. But then I tell her its immoral and pure hyprocracy to throw someone in jail for drugs, that its not the answer. But somehow that effects her, like her stand against abortions too.
There is something wrong with this picture. No truer words than Tom Paine would sum up a patriotism that would help... "The world is my country, and to do good is my religion."
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Michael Dewey (4 articles, 1 quicklinks, 3 diaries, 186 comments)
on Saturday, June 7, 2008 at 7:58:59 PM
I wonder - the media make out that virtually the whole country except for the wealthy are liberal.
I ask you - do you remember Cindy Sheehan? She was the poster child for the Left until Nov. 8 - the day after Nov. 7, 'Regime change day'. Speaker Pelosi was supposed to change things. Can you name one change Pelosi has made?
Now, Ms Sheehan is running against Pelosi, and with her hope. Speaker Pelosi did not end the war in Iraq. Speaker Pelosi did not impeach the president. Speaker Pelosi has sold out to corporate America, as have 151 members of Congress who own share in defense companies.
We can end the madness of the illegal wars and the high price of oil. America has enough in wind, solar, geothermal and tidal - in fact, in each of these, for all our needs with room to spare.
What we are experiencing is fear, created by the wealthy...who are very afraid we will learn the truth. They know the game they are playing cannot be sustained for much longer.
When we demand an end to the war, it will. When we demand affordable energy, we will get it.
Think about it - who is behind the 'energy crisis', the 'war in Iraq crisis', the 'threat of terrorism crisis'? Are you afraid an Iraqi is going to murder your children?
Let us be strong.
by
Barker (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 120 comments)
on Saturday, June 7, 2008 at 8:29:16 PM
Israels oil companies owe hundreds of millions of dollars to Irans NIOC as a result of the Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline, a decision that is under appeal. So one wonders if the threats to bomb Iran are to get them to waive this debt. I mean, we all know Irans future nukes are not scaring Israel much. We also know that everytime Iran or the US makes threats to bomb Iran, oil jumps 10 dollars in price, and somebody makes a nice piece of change if they know when these announcements are to be made. Hopefully, thats all it is. Just bluffing for profit.
According to the Guardian last April, Israel gets much of their oil from Iran. Irans oil is shipped to them through a European middle man, who received the oil via the Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline, and then ships it to Israel . So much for the respect of sanctions against their hated enemy, if true. If true, it would seem to make an attack on Iran unlikley.
In the event of war, Israel would not receive this oil from Iran, if indeed thats where they get it. In any event, little oil would be shipped from the region, and there would definitely be global shortages that would affect Israel. A military without enough fuel has a security problem. But the US has a security arrangement with Israel, courtesy of Ford/Kissinger. In return for Israel giving up some Egyptian Oil Fields they seized in the 1973 war, the US would guarantee Israel oil, even if in short supply, should Israel suffer shortages as a result of war with her neighbours. No worries for Israel then.
So Israel is in kind of a win win situation on Iran. They can attack her, knowing we will replace any lossses in arms and weapons. They can create a global crisis, knowing they themselves are guaranteed all the oil they need. They can walk away from hundreds of millions in debt. Distract the world while they reduce Gaza to rubble. Perhaps stir up Hezzbollah enough to take Southern Lebanon, and perhaps parts of Syria should Syria object to Israeli flights over their terroritory to get to Iran.
Not saying Israel is taking a leading role here, it might be elements within the US neocons putting her up to it. If only 1/2 the crimes we think have been committed by these people are true, they will hardly want to be leaving without a fight, especially if they felt war crime trials could be looming. An attack on Iran by Israel can only happen with US permission. It is the only way the neocons can stay in power if the PTB have chosen Obama, and the signs are that they have. McCain can be trashed so easily in MSM once they get the signal to do so.
Ideally, the US would do the dirty deed and strike Iran first. But thats not going to happen in an election year, unless they plan on cancelling elections and declaring martial law. That could be dangerous if there is a significant resistance in the military. Short of this, what will likely happen is that after Israel attacks Iran, if they do, a hornets nest will get stirred up among the Shia in Iraq, and an event will happen that kills many troops that gets blamed on Iran, true or not. In fact, since Iran likely would start providing Iraq with real weapons to be used against our occupation forces, it is possible it would be true. In any event, we will have what is needed to act on Iran and get the country on a war footing again w/o declaring martial law. Good for McCain and the neocons he will protect when in office.
One thing is for sure, an attack on Iran ensures US forces will need to remain in Iraq, permanently. And it will certainly lead to a global economic depression that will kill millions due to famine due to food shortages induced by lack of oil.
The housecleaning being done could be a good sign, there are clearly people inside who are resisting what would be a disastor for America. It is also clear we have people on the inside whose loyalties lie with those having a more Global agenda. Hopefully, the good guys win, or at least the not so bad guys.
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pft (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 466 comments)
on Saturday, June 7, 2008 at 8:34:19 PM
RE the Minot to Barksdale flight of a B-52 bomber with 6 nuclear armed missiles, I compiled a lot of links, did a little original research of my own on the alleged meteor strike in Peru (it was a satellite deliberately crashed to foil targeting the missing missile on Iran), and posted the whole package on OpEdNews back in December, but no one seemed to have noticed. Find it here: click here
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David Griscom (4 articles, 0 quicklinks, 1 diaries, 30 comments)
on Sunday, June 8, 2008 at 1:27:27 AM
Oil, Israel, Iran, America and the High Cost of a Single War
In all my 58 years, I've never ever thought the Zionists were stupid, in fact it's quiet obvious to me, they are miles ahead of the proverbial "shit house rat".(Aussie slang, for very cunning person)
The Zionists have capitalised now for 60 years, on the so called Holocaust, gaining sympathy or guilt from anyone/Country that had deaf ears at the time.
I strongly suspect, any such sympathy which they have so strongly capitalised upon now for many years, would simply vanish over night, and the exact opposite would occur,should the World be plunged into the abyss once more by their machinations.
Not for a moment, do I believe the Zionists are not aware of this, therefore to claim they are on the verge of beginning Armageddon would be suicide for them as for the Iranians and for many of us.
Yet, we never see Zionist suicide bombers do we ? So the possabilities of Zionists begining WW 3, IMHO are vertually nought.
And of course there's America, which it has already been said, "runs on oil".
Should the Zionists commit suicide, I suspect very strongly, the U.S. would not be too far behind. Again, whilst I have not one skerrick of confidance in any of the Congress persons in their Insane asylum, I do not believe they wish to commit suicide either.
So lets cut the hyperbole and deal with FACTS,(it's common knowledge, everything the U.S. and Israel accuse Iran of, is bullshit, why anyone would give creditability to proven LIARS of the highest magnitude, is beyond me)) cast this specualtion and hypothesis aside and deal with the real issues and that is the U.S.'s declining dollar value and the constant bleeding dry of their economy with their on going military adventures.
That's where the problem lies. Deal with it.
Hello, Hello, now I'm being told by this web site using the word Zionist is hateful,hurtful and I should use another word in it's place. ? Um excuse me folks, is this Freedom here or censureship ?
Of course the Zionist threatening another country without foundation or supportive evidance of their claims could never be classified as HURTFULL of HATEFULL, neither could threatening a country with obliteration and war ?
It would appear the words anti- semantic are not hateful or hurtful, what gives folks ?
From where I sit, a spade is a spade, colour is irrelevant.
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Eddy Schmid (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 201 comments)
on Sunday, June 8, 2008 at 8:18:32 AM
Fact 1: Bush and his handlers and enablers are apparently subject to criminal and civil prosecution if and when he leaves office. (Assuming there's no martial law at the time).
Fact 2: The "official" 911 story continues to disintegrate, and may completely fall apart at any time...and any semblance of a real investigation would no doubt reveal Israeli complicity.
Fact 3: The U.S. economy is headed into the toilet anyway.
Fact 4: The "people" pulling the strings here are not rational actors; rather, they're bloodthirsty, delusional freaks.
In light of this, the "people" who've orchestrated all this madness have apparently painted themselves into a corner, thus they may be more than willing to attack Iran, since they may now have nothing to lose.
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Harold Smith (0 articles, 3 quicklinks, 2 diaries, 469 comments)
on Sunday, June 8, 2008 at 10:06:56 AM
Because of the deliberate propaganda (lies) used to authorize invasion or Iraq by the Bush administration I do not trust any claim that Iran has any bio or nuclear weapons or any other claim that is being used to justify another invasion.
The only fact I know for sure is that Iran has lots of oil and that oil is worth a lot of money (just like Iraq).
by
Philip Pease (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 1 diaries, 127 comments)
on Sunday, June 8, 2008 at 10:02:24 AM
Time for a more neutral Middle Eastern foreign policy, our unconditional support of Israel only emboldens the most extremist elements in the USA, Israel and the Arab world.
The line was crossed long ago but it is imperative to abandon our one sided advocacy of Israeli agression for one that defends human rights and favors a two state solution with a return to pre 1967 boundaries.
Truly, it would be the best way to go for all, especially non-Likud Israelis for peace is the only way that they will be able to survive.
Just my two cents
EE
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Ed Encho (7 articles, 16 quicklinks, 56 diaries, 391 comments)
on Sunday, June 8, 2008 at 10:47:43 AM
A very sobering and plausible scenario which you've depicted, Dave.
As most of you are aware, this past week Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert visited Washington, DC where he met with Bush, Cheney and Condoleezza Rice as well as the heads of AIPAC (the American Israel Public Affairs Committee). Olmert's visit to the US was to facilitate the Israeli Air Force purchase of new F-35 fighter jets, but more importantly, to address several sensitive intelligence issues i.e. Iran's so called "nuclear program."
Olmert's recent visit to Washington I believe was a very significant one, and will indeed play a pivotal roll in whether or not Israel, along with the assistance of the United States, have decided upon in the not too distant future, a strike on targets inside of Iran. The reason that I say this,is because on the morning of May 22, 2006, a beautiful cool Spring morning I met with my wife in DC. She had arrived a few days prior where her and her sisters spent an enjoyable weekend touring the District.
After exchanging goodbye hugs with her sisters, my wife and I boarded the Metro at Crystal City's underground and ventured over to once again take in the White House, a very beautiful and historic building.
As we exited at Farragut West and worked our way toward street level, one of the first things we noticed were the sounds of police and fire truck sirens. Then, as we began walking in the direction of "the Peoples House the sound of the sirens seemed to be getting much louder, and as we approached H.Street noticed that the Police had Lafayette Park completely closed off, every entrance. In fact, many of the fire trucks and police cars, even a few Swat Teams were gathered out in front of the Park and the White House on Pennsylvania Avenue.
During the few minutes we were standing adjacent to the park I overheard someone mention something about the threat of a bomb, but as I looked at the faces of some of the policeman, they were too relaxed for it to have been a bomb. We then heard there'd been a fire. At any rate, my wife and I then walked over H. and down 15th Street and as we reached Pennsylvania Avenue seen that most of the fire trucks and police cars had departed. As we walked toward the White House I then asked a gentleman walking next to us who was dressed in a business suit and tie what all the commotion was about? He very nonchalantly replied: "Oh, the Israeli Prime Minister just left the White House."
America would later learn that it was during this May 2006 visit that the Bush administration had given Prime Minister Olmert and Israel their blessing, and carte blanche to wage war a few months later against Lebanon, bombing and killing as it seen fit, in what would amount to an horrific and deadly 33-day Lebanon war.
We can only hope and pray that Olmert's latest visit to Washington isn't a prelude of what's to come, and that this pernicious Bush junta has given Israel the green light for a heinous attack on Iran. An attack that will be far from any "cake walk," but as Dave has so eloquently alluded, could very well turn into a "Global catastrophe."
It is imperative that Impeachment be put back upon the table. What on Earth is Congress thinking? Meanwhile, what is left of America and it's Constitution hangs in the balance.
by
Munich (0 articles, 66 quicklinks, 12 diaries, 827 comments)
on Sunday, June 8, 2008 at 3:50:37 PM
12 comments
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