McCain's Nomination - A Possible September Surprise? - by Stephen Lendman
Party conventions are less than two months off, and already rumors are circulating. When the Democrats hold theirs from August 25 - 28, Obama is the virtually sure nominee. According to some, however, things aren't settled for Republicans a week later. Presumptive nominee John McCain may not be as certain as most people think, and why so should be asked.
For one thing, he trails in the polls (including in key battleground states like Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania) but not enough to be worrisome (in most of them), and the latest June Reuters/Zogby one is typical. It shows Obama ahead by about five points, and in recent months he's been up by from 6 to 10 and in one poll down six to McCain. It's much the same from a June Financial Dynamics one, but shows up much differently when respondents are asked which party's candidate they'll support. In recent months, Democrats have been strongly favored - since January from up 6 to 15 with three of the five survey months showing double digit leads.
That's indeed worrisome, and it showed up last March 29 in the Cook Political Report. It noted that by "almost every available gauge, Republicans are in deep trouble. Except that is, for the one that counts most - the presidential election trial heat." Back then, Obama or Clinton v. McCain came out pretty even with either side gaining an edge in different polls but not by much.
Fast forward to June 14, and the Cook Report said this: "After Clinton dropped out (Democrats quickly united and in Gallup polls) Obama is holding a steady 7-point lead, his largest since Gallup began tracking in March. (Further) Democrats now routinely hold a 6-to-8 point advantage on party identification. So Obama will have a distinct edge if he is as popular among Democrats as McCain is among Republicans. (He) represents the embodiment of change, which is an advantage in this political climate" when voters are begging for it. Yet it's too early to predict an outcome, and months earlier the Cook Report called the race a toss-up. It still says "anyone has a 50-50 chance of picking the winner today."
That view may change after the latest Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll came out June 25 - conducted from June 19 - 23. Right or wrong, it was hugely different from others up to mid-June. It showed Obama with a "sizable" lead over McCain, and here are the numbers:
-- head to head in a two-man race, Obama leads McCain by 49% to 37%;
-- however, in a four-man race (including Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr), Obama outscores McCain 48% to 33% for a 15 point spread.
Conclusion: Nader, Barr, and a Green Party candidate are running; others likely also but not enough to matter unless a prominent figure unexpectedly does as an independent; alternate candidates at this stage are taking votes from McCain, most likely Republican ones. Why so? Largely because voters trust Obama more on their top concern - the economy. Other domestic issues also while McCain scores higher on national security matters.
Most significant is McCain's "passion gap" among conservatives - 58% support him, but 15% are for Obama and another 13% undecided. In contrast, 79% of self-described "liberals" back Obama. Further, and equally significant, more than half (55%) of McCain supporters lack enthusiasm, and only 13% are "very enthusiastic." It's mirror opposite for Obama - 81% of his backers are "enthusiastic" and nearly half "very enthusiastic."
Two Times/Bloomberg poll results highlight McCain's problem. First is George Bush's approval rating. It scored the lowest ever: 23% with 73% disapproving of his job performance.
Second is the Christian right's feeling that McCain isn't solid on its issues, and as a senator flip-flopped on key ones. Supporting abortion in cases of rape and incest, for example, and wanting stem cell research to go forward. Also his reference to Pat Robinson and Jerry Falwell as "agents of intolerance" in his 2000 presidential campaign. He later apologized, but it may be too little, too late.
Discord In the Ranks
Rumblings below the surface have Republicans worried. It's clear from the above poll results and in a May 11 AFP report. It noted that "many party members (are) having a hard time accepting (McCain and they're) showing it with symbolic votes against him in" primaries. Pennsylvania, Indiana and North Carolina to name three recent ones. It worries party leaders that "as many as 25% of Republicans want a different candidate" based on how many preferred other choices than McCain. Why so? Because his "reputation as a party maverick and a compromising moderate" makes him unpredictable. It also disgruntles "the party's most conservative and ideological members," and they've got plenty of clout to matter.
In recent weeks, however, McCain fought back by tilting noticeably to the right the way he's often done in the past. His speeches focused on conservative red meat issues like the Iraq war, national security, and appointing conservative High Court Justices while avoiding controversial ones like abortion, gay rights and others the religious right opposes. Nonetheless, his electability problem showed up in a May Wall Street Journal poll. It gave Bush a 27% approval rating, and 43% think McCain is "too closely aligned with the Bush agenda." That spells trouble (like the Times/Bloomberg results), and Democrats are exploiting it.
There's also McCain's temperament, his unimpressive intellect, unpredictability, his bigotry, arrogance, hardheadedness, legendary temper, instability, and his genius for making enemies among the faithful he needs for support. Observers also describe some recent speeches as wooden, halting, mechanical, bumbling, uninspiring, mean-spirited, and clearly no match for Obama who outclasses him. Then consider how Alexander Cockburn described him last February in a CounterPunch article: "a dunderhead in statecraft, devoid of self control, capricious in moral standards and an imbecile in his lack of political judgment." Worst of all it shows, and "the better people get to know (him), the less they care for him." The public as well that's shifting more to Obama as the two candidates face off with four months to go until November.
I am a 72 year old, retired, progressive small businessman concerned about all the major national and world issues, committed to speak out and write about them.
Born May '36 here. Good to see another old guy with some sense left that won't be voting for McTemper. Excellent article, but too long for most younger progressive's attention span. Hence, the satirical don't trust anyone under 60. As they say in your neck of the woods, vote early and vote often. And of course, God bless Mayor Daley.
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James Cordray (3 articles, 0 quicklinks, 2 diaries, 55 comments)
on Friday, July 11, 2008 at 2:11:10 PM
I can see Ron Paul signs up and down the road,funny, not one Obama sign or McCain. By many accounts Paul won the Texas primary, but the status quo party hoods and the sham primary fixed it all up. I know an honest man wouldnt be welcome in DC, but it was a good dream. The man that could have led the effort to restore the rule of law has been sidelined. Unfortunately the will of the people does not figure into the equation. The primary was a sham and I have no reason to believe the convention will be any different.
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john riggs (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 424 comments)
on Friday, July 11, 2008 at 6:46:11 PM
for the information on how Ron Paul is faring. It looks like he is by far the most popular "invisible candidate." Simply amazing how the media shut him out! I frequent a rather conservative health blog as well as OpEd, and a lot of the people there are saying they will write in Ron Paul. It will be interesting to see what happens. I hope exit polls will be taken everywhere so we can get a real picture to compare with the media one.
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Patricia 0rmsby (3 articles, 5 quicklinks, 1 diaries, 133 comments)
on Saturday, July 12, 2008 at 7:16:56 AM
The public is not enamored of the Republicans now. When you look at the political environment, and how the parties rate in polls, it should be a walk away for the Democrats. But McCain has generally polled much better than his Party, although he has weakened in recent polls.
The Republicans have no one on the horizon with any prospects of doing better than McCain, so the fact that he is likely to lose isn't likely to cause them to change candidates. Sure he doesn't excite much of their core constituency, he's got some clear weaknesses, and he's the oldest person ever to run as a major party candidate, but they can't come up with anyone who can turn their prospects around.
The only thing that could keep McCain from being nominated is if he has some sort of health crisis between now and then. For a younger person, a serious health incident might not be critical if it is readily treatable. For a candidate of McCain's age, it could be fatal to his candidacy even if in the end he would fully recover and live fairly healthy for a long time to come. And if a health crisis didn't prevent his nomination, it would likely depress his vote total substantially, leading to one of the most massive landslides in history for the Democrats.
I don't think such a health crisis is likely, but its political consequences would be enormous should it happen. But note that it would weaken Obama's mandate because of the perception that he won because his opponent had health problems, essentially preventing a fair race.
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Bill Samuel (3 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 270 comments)
on Friday, July 11, 2008 at 8:33:58 PM
5 comments
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