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Tag(s): Change; Civilization; Corporations; Decline; Double Standards; Power; Presidential Campaign Democratic
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June 15, 2008 at 10:29:47

Headlined on 6/15/08:
Does the 2008 US Presidential Race Really Matter?

by Dr. Michael P Byron Page 1 of 3 page(s)

www.opednews.com

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Will contributing time and money to the Obama campaign, or just voting for Obama make any meaningful difference as to how the future unfolds? Conversely, does time and energy spent working for an Obama victory simply detract from applying these assets towards working for real societal transformation? I believe that evaluating these questions from a systems theory perspective provides insight on their resolution.

Global society constitutes a complex adaptive system. All systems possess three fundamental attributes:

1) Interconnectedness. A set of units or elements are interconnected so that changes in any element or elements produce changes in all. A change in any part of such a system causes rippling changes throughout every part of a system.

2) Emergence. The system as a whole possesses collective properties which are qualitatively different from, and not reducible to, the properties of its constituent elements. The wetness of a water molecule is not reducible to the properties of its constituent hydrogen and oxygen atoms. Similarly, consciousness is not reducible to the properties of individual neurons.

3) Boundedness. All systems possess a definite boundary between system and not system. This boundary may be closed or open. For complex systems, it is open.

Complex systems have unpredictable outputs. They process information and transform themselves in accordance with the results of their information processing. This is particularly true for complex systems composed of conscious elements such as human beings.

Because global human society is a complex adaptive system, its configuration is determined by the results of its information processing. All such systems may be said to evolve along a fitness landscape. As such they possess trajectories through this landscape or, as I usually call it, through learning space.

fitness landscape

trajectory

Above, I’ve included examples for a fitness landscape and its associated trajectory for human civilization from a paper I presented in 1997 at a conference on sociocybernetics at the University of Amsterdam. Once a complex system such as human civilization is reduced to a computer simulation, its fitness landscape and trajectory become readily apparent. The full text of the paper is available at: http://www.michaelpbyron.com/SystemicaArt.htm for anyone interested in following this topic up in more depth. [Note: If these images do not appear above, they can be found at: http://www.michaelpbyron.com/image022.gif and at: http://www.michaelpbyron.com/image023.gif .]

Because people learn and have goals, society as a whole has goals and attempts to “learn” its way towards the attainment of these goals. Security, comfort of life, and health are fundamental goals for all humans. Attempts at ordering society through law, fairly and impartially enforced by a government, which is responsive to the citizenry, represent one such goal. Another goal has been the provisioning of public goods. Basically, we have sought both to develop ever greater organizational “software” for governance, in conjunction with ever more powerful “hardware” for the provision of material goods.

In a system everything that happens causes rippling changes throughout the system. Consider our present day world: We have had limited success with developing the “software” needed to create what we would intuitively recognize as a just and humane society. We have recently been somewhat more successful at the provisioning of material goods, thanks primarily to cheap hydrocarbon energy. This material success has led us to the point where nearly seven billion humans are artificially sustained by the rapid release of chemical energy stored in oil and other hydrocarbons. However, availability of these resources must begin to decline ever more precipitously, and beginning soon.

Further, this decline of availability of cheap fuel is triggering ever more rapid use of the “dirtiest” of these energy sources because it exists in the greatest abundance: coal. This is triggering increasingly rapid climate change. Record setting droughts in some areas, record floods in others. As I write, a hundred blocks of Cedar City Iowa are under water due to historically unprecedented flooding.

The net effect of these climatic changes is to decrease agricultural production; and this is occurring at a time when world food reserves are already at an all time low for modern times. However, expensive oil, due to nearly flat production in the context of rising global demand, leads to increasing conversion of food crops to ethanol production, further lowering food reserves.

Global industrialized agriculture is almost completely dependent upon petroleum. Fertilizers are derived from natural gas. Pesticides are derived from petroleum. The entire agricultural production, processing and distribution system depends upon petroleum. The industrialization of agriculture across the planet had led to the majority of humanity becoming, for the first time, city dwellers. More than ever before in history, people are dependent upon the system of industrialized agriculture for their food.

As far as our governmental “software” is concerned, political power is fragmented into numerous nation states of varying power and affluence. Wealth and opportunity are inequitably distributed in all of them. Two thirds of the planet’s remaining petroleum reserves, along with forty percent of its natural gas, are located in the Persian Gulf. The United States is the only nation on the planet with the capability to project large amounts of military power globally. It is bogged down in the Persian Gulf nation of Iraq, in the sixth year of a war to control these resources.

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Michael P Byron is the author of the just released book The Path Through Infinity's Rainbow: Your Guide to Personal Survival and Spiritual Transformation in a World Gone Mad. This book is a manual for taking effective action to deal with the crises of our age including global climate change, peak oil, and political failure to deal with these and other problems. His previous book is Infinity's Rainbow: The Politics of Energy, Climate and Globalization. Byron has a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of California, Irvine. He teaches all aspects of Political Science and Political Economy in local colleges in the San Diego area. He was the Democratic Party's candidate for United States Congress in California's 49th Congressional District in 2004. In 2002, he ran as a write-in candidate upon discovering that the Republican incumbent, Darrell Issa, had no major-party challenger.

Mike lives in Oceanside, CA with his wife, Ramona Byron. Both are Navy veterans.

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13 comments

I am 54 year-old, male, college Philosophy and Humanities teacher. I have degrees in Philosophy and Film. I have authored a book called "The Evolution of Christs and Christianies" and am now working on a sequel. I have produced two features films, "I Married a Vampire" (1984) and "Electra, Love 2000" (1993) distributed by Troma, inc.
Philosopher JayI am 54 year-old, male, college Philosophy and Humanities teacher. I have degrees in Philosophy and Film. I have authored a book called "The Evolution of Christs and Christianies" and am now working on a sequel. I have produced two features films, "I Married a Vampire" (1984) and "Electra, Love 2000" (1993) distributed by Troma, inc.

Interesting Points

Interesting points. I tend to agree.

It is probable that the amazing economic and social collapse of the United States in the past eight years could not have been prevented by the election of Gore or Kerry. Still, the fact that Bush has done everything possible to exacerbate that collapse almost certainly speeded it up.

If one studies the collapse of the Roman Empire over the third and fourth centuries, one sees that an amazing variety of approaches were tried to prevent that collapse. Even the adoptation of Christianity, a complete reversal of eight hundred years of polytheistic worship, did not prevent the collapse.

It seems to me that voting/contributing/working for Obama will create a somewhat more stable situation in the short run, while McCain will bring the final collapse a lot faster.

by Philosopher Jay (4 articles, 0 quicklinks, 5 diaries, 24 comments) on Sunday, June 15, 2008 at 2:04:57 PM

Wolfie

I SEE A DOG

Look carefully at that matrix drawing. You will see a dog.

Thereby the conclusion is obvious.

Listen to this dog. I see there is change coming from our pack.

We have to go out and wail to the stars all night.

We must get the sheeple herded and protected from these

butchers.

Then we will be all in harmony when we rip the guts from the Illuminati.

Wooooooooof!

by Wolfie (8 articles, 0 quicklinks, 29 diaries, 1176 comments) on Sunday, June 15, 2008 at 6:39:07 PM

Patricia Ormsby is an environmental and health activist living Fujinomiya, Japan. She obtained her bachelors degree in Chemical Engineering from the University of Colorado in 1981 and studied Linguistics at the University of Michigan Graduate School before moving to Japan in 1984, where she has worked since as a language teacher and translator of Japanese and Russian technical documents. She hang glides and climbs mountains and has led several ecotours to Siberia, Canada and the United States....

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Patricia 0rmsbyPatricia Ormsby is an environmental and health activist living Fujinomiya, Japan. She obtained her bachelors degree in Chemical Engineering from the University of Colorado in 1981 and studied Linguistics at the University of Michigan Graduate School before moving to Japan in 1984, where she has worked since as a language teacher and translator of Japanese and Russian technical documents. She hang glides and climbs mountains and has led several ecotours to Siberia, Canada and the United States....

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That's right, Wolfie!

You get 'em from the left and I'll get 'em from the right (or whould we do the opposite?) and we'll protect those dear sheeple! Now, where is the dang moon when you need it?

by Patricia 0rmsby (3 articles, 5 quicklinks, 1 diaries, 133 comments) on Sunday, June 15, 2008 at 10:58:59 PM

Dr. John Moffett is an active research neuroscientist in the Washington, DC area, who has published over 45 scientific articles on the nervous and immune systems. Dr. Moffett is also the author and webmaster of the political opinion website www.Factinista.org, and is a Managing Editor at OpEdNews.com.
John R MoffettDr. John Moffett is an active research neuroscientist in the Washington, DC area, who has published over 45 scientific articles on the nervous and immune systems. Dr. Moffett is also the author and webmaster of the political opinion website www.Factinista.org, and is a Managing Editor at OpEdNews.com.

Systems Theory is nice

As someone who has studied systems theory (von Bertalanffy, among many) from a biological perspective for many years, I was intrigued by your article. It is perhaps a bit heavy on the fitness landscape background, because this does not translate to an actual General Systems Theory analysis of the current political system (i.e., you did not create fitness landscapes for Obama vs. McCain by plugging in variables).

I think your conclusion is a bit soft, i.e., that there would only be minor differences between the outcomes (societal fitness profiles) with Obama vs. McCain.

First, Obama is young and is working from a base of newer and more progressive ideas. McCain is working on neocon retreads with their bases in the cold war. The two candidate’s perspectives on international dialog are diametrically opposed. Obama’s and McCain’s approaches to the economy are nearly opposite as well. Adding in what Obama would do to improve condition here in the US (infrastructure, schools, roads, etc.), while trying to bring Americans together (rather than divide and conquer) is also far different from McCain’s mindset.

The list goes on and on, with ramifications far beyond the Supreme Court.

I’m a big fan of systems theory, but you haven’t actually applied any systems theory analysis to the Obama vs. McCain election, and I can’t agree with your hypothesis that there will not be any major differences in the societal outcomes between an Obama and McCain presidency. In fact, I posit that there will be huge differences.

by John R Moffett (80 articles, 14 quicklinks, 2 diaries, 607 comments) on Sunday, June 15, 2008 at 8:41:34 PM

Michael P Byron is the author of the just released book The Path Through Infinity's Rainbow: Your Guide to Personal Survival and Spiritual Transformation in a World Gone Mad. This book is a manual for taking effective action to deal with the crises of our age including global climate change, peak oil, and political failure to deal with these and other problems.

His previous book is Infinity's Rainbow: The Politics of Energy, Climate and Globalization.

Byron has a Ph.D. ...

to see more of bio, click on member name
Dr. Michael P ByronMichael P Byron is the author of the just released book The Path Through Infinity's Rainbow: Your Guide to Personal Survival and Spiritual Transformation in a World Gone Mad. This book is a manual for taking effective action to deal with the crises of our age including global climate change, peak oil, and political failure to deal with these and other problems.

His previous book is Infinity's Rainbow: The Politics of Energy, Climate and Globalization.

Byron has a Ph.D. ...

to see more of bio, click on member name

Systems Theory is nice

John,

Good assessment overall.

I limited my evaluation to a few examples because a really detailed assessment would go on for a lot longer than the average reader would be willing to put up with. ("MEGO" "My Eyes Glaze Over" would set in I fear with that level of detail.)

My sense is that because global civilization has (I've concluded) has reached the point of no return (i.e. it cannot be structured in the future as it is now) due to the confluence of anthropogenic climate change, hydrocarbon resource depletion ("peak oil") and corporate capture of government our options are pretty circumscribed at this point. Obama in say 1978 might have made a fundamental difference. Obama in 2009 probably can't affect our overall trajectory to much. Fundamental differences in policy with McCain, even if sincere, and assuming an ability to translate them into action, are likely to late even if not too little. Further his over the top [He did not have to grovel THAT much] pandening before APAC last week suggests that he may not be that different where it counts from McCain.)

I note that have not modeled Obama v McCain here, but have relied on, and *extrapolated* from, previous simulation efforts.

Basically, I believe that we can still save the painfully accumulated learning of the past 10,000 years, though we have not done much of anything necessary to do this so far. However, we cannot continue into the future as we are now. Really *fundamental* change is required really fast or else we face a really dark dark age in the near future.

As to your interest in systems theory, you might find this group a usefull resource: http://www.unizar.es/sociocybernetics/. I've been associated with them for the past dozen years.

Mike Byron

by Dr. Michael P Byron (10 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 5 comments) on Monday, June 16, 2008 at 12:03:29 AM

Hater of Nazis above all. Hobbies include activism, military model building, military history, exciting and vital conversation with retired crooks. Retired
John HanksHater of Nazis above all. Hobbies include activism, military model building, military history, exciting and vital conversation with retired crooks. Retired

Only if we stop feeding the crooks.

If we tax the wealthy with extreme prejudice, we can deprive the system of the oil and grease which keeps it going.

by John Hanks (1 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 1186 comments) on Sunday, June 15, 2008 at 9:11:57 PM

I am a 65 year old widowed grandmother who just got health insurance after more than two decades without it which is difficult with Diabetes, asthma and hypertension. One of my sons is severely developmentally disabled by autism due to lead paint poisoning. I have spent much of my life caring for ill and disabled family members and advocating on their behalf.
Pat WilliamsI am a 65 year old widowed grandmother who just got health insurance after more than two decades without it which is difficult with Diabetes, asthma and hypertension. One of my sons is severely developmentally disabled by autism due to lead paint poisoning. I have spent much of my life caring for ill and disabled family members and advocating on their behalf.

Yes it does matter

Look at what Cheney/Bush have done in seven years. If they can wreak such havoc in seven years, surely we the people can get a lot done. Removing the criminal abettors and sycophants from our government under a Democratic administration is essential in order to begin recovery efforts. Look how bad the Great Depression was when FDR finally was able to take charge. And look at what happened after JFK set the plan to put a man on the moon within the decade. With a good leader who knows how to rally our nation's base and pull us together, there will be hope again. I believe that Obama is that person. A primary reason I believe that is the way his grassroots political organizing has worked to date.

by Pat Williams (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 82 comments) on Sunday, June 15, 2008 at 10:36:40 PM

I am a 47 years old,married and have a 17 year old daughter.My hobbies are bicyling, weight training and off road motorcycling.I have lived in a midwestern red state my entire 46 years.Now that I have reached middle age I have become interested in politics and its related fields of study.I dont often think of things being either liberal or conservative,I like to veiw political events in an objective manner and find the agenda or reason that a bill or policy is brought to bear.Simply put seeking ...

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Gary DensonI am a 47 years old,married and have a 17 year old daughter.My hobbies are bicyling, weight training and off road motorcycling.I have lived in a midwestern red state my entire 46 years.Now that I have reached middle age I have become interested in politics and its related fields of study.I dont often think of things being either liberal or conservative,I like to veiw political events in an objective manner and find the agenda or reason that a bill or policy is brought to bear.Simply put seeking ...

to see more of bio, click on member name

2008 presidential race

Yes it will matter and if the winner has the courage to stand up to the multinational corporations who are destroying the country it may spread to other politicians as well. Populism is making a comeback but remember the multinationals will try every kind of spin and propaganda campaign to brainwash people into believing that the needs and wants of multinational corporations trump all other concerns and that if you just give them everything they ask for peace and prosperity will occur and trickle down economics will benefit everyone. What must be done is expose the aforementioned as a lie and show that the shortsighted multinationals are actually more incompetent than most government agencies.

Globalization must be exposed as nothing more than a reverse auction of wages and a waste of energy and fossil fuel by continual shipping across oceans. Free trade is the dogma that brainwashes the masses into corporate slavery. Self sufficiency is vital and a show of strength. They say you cant just wall yourselves in and that is true but you cant ignore reality and fail to face up to the fact that the United States rose to its industrial prominence with tariffs and industry protections.

by Gary Denson (2 articles, 0 quicklinks, 1 diaries, 214 comments) on Sunday, June 15, 2008 at 10:42:29 PM

Former ballet dancer and healthcare worker; currently a "refugee" as graduate student. Activist since writing Gorbachev and encouraging him to end the Cold War under Reagan (thinking it a step on the right path). Sent "Apologia to Palestinians" to the Pope, inspired by Fawzi Turki's understanding of an historical Jewish-Palestinian mirror-image plight. Seeker of good deeds that go unpunished and the recognition that no person or civilization can survive a world without them. Thus, seeker of God.
bgilmoreFormer ballet dancer and healthcare worker; currently a "refugee" as graduate student. Activist since writing Gorbachev and encouraging him to end the Cold War under Reagan (thinking it a step on the right path). Sent "Apologia to Palestinians" to the Pope, inspired by Fawzi Turki's understanding of an historical Jewish-Palestinian mirror-image plight. Seeker of good deeds that go unpunished and the recognition that no person or civilization can survive a world without them. Thus, seeker of God.

Systems theory

Interesting article AND comments. Here's a related response, which was sent to counter the Florida Sun-Sentinel's 06/12/2008 editorial on the subject of impeachment, which I think addresses the same conundrum with some motherly advice:

The Florida Sun-Sentinel advises that "if Congress needs more things than impeachment to keep lawmakers busy, it has myriad options." Is their sarcasm justified? Let's look at the options. The last time the nation replaced the "bad cop" with the "good cop" (1992), we spent eight years watching a president peeled layer by layer until the bad cops managed to return to the scene of their crimes and plunder the treasury AGAIN. All of this was easily predictable politically or even just by our mothers' teaching, "if you don't hold people accountable for their crimes....."

Cleaning up others' messes and moving on without accountability has worked out wonderfully, hasn't it? We went from billions lost in false S&L profits and over $100,000 killed in a manipulated war... to trillions plundered in "myriad" ways, nearly a million dead, and four million refugees.

Back then the buried story was illegal slant-drilling into Iraq ("drinking the milkshake"), even though that crime will get you shot in Texas. We went from a VP turned president who ignored all the warnings about S&L fraud (even from prominent Republicans) to "All right, you've covered your ass, now" as the presidential response to the latest warning of a pending terrorist attack. Loyalty and due diligence are simply not recognized as duties by this Board of Directors.

So, what does the Sun-Sentinel have as advice to address this growing criminality? Move on, folks, nothing to see here. In other words, it's got worse than nothing.

Mother, help us.

by bgilmore (1 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 2 comments) on Monday, June 16, 2008 at 12:49:43 AM

American Expat in Asia
pftAmerican Expat in Asia

The President is just the ruling elites puppet.

Also, peak oil (within 100 years) and global warming (CO2 driven) are both myths used to control people and nations. Our leaders need to create external threats to get support the transfer of ever more power to the ruling elite. Take your choice of threat, AQ Terrorists or the Global Warming Terror Bunnies. Both serve the same purpose.

by pft (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 464 comments) on Monday, June 16, 2008 at 1:19:40 AM

Rob Kall is executive editor and publisher of OpEdNews.com, President of Futurehealth, Inc, inventor . He is also published regularly on the Huffingtonpost.com. He is a frequent Speaker on Politics, Impeachment, The art, science and power of story, heroes and the hero's journey, Positive Psychology, Stress, Biofeedback and a wide range of subjects. He is a campaign consultant specializing in tapping the power of stories for issue positioning, stump speeches and debates. He recently retired as o...

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Rob KallRob Kall is executive editor and publisher of OpEdNews.com, President of Futurehealth, Inc, inventor . He is also published regularly on the Huffingtonpost.com. He is a frequent Speaker on Politics, Impeachment, The art, science and power of story, heroes and the hero's journey, Positive Psychology, Stress, Biofeedback and a wide range of subjects. He is a campaign consultant specializing in tapping the power of stories for issue positioning, stump speeches and debates. He recently retired as o...

to see more of bio, click on member name

It'd be interesting to combine a systems & Chaos theory...

approach. STrange attractors like Obama, McCain, progressives, Olbermann, the blogosphere could add interesting dimensions.

Anyway, fascinating article. I hope we see more from you.

by Rob Kall (805 articles, 3917 quicklinks, 331 diaries, 1697 comments) on Monday, June 16, 2008 at 9:57:34 AM

Michael P Byron is the author of the just released book The Path Through Infinity's Rainbow: Your Guide to Personal Survival and Spiritual Transformation in a World Gone Mad. This book is a manual for taking effective action to deal with the crises of our age including global climate change, peak oil, and political failure to deal with these and other problems.

His previous book is Infinity's Rainbow: The Politics of Energy, Climate and Globalization.

Byron has a Ph.D. ...

to see more of bio, click on member name
Dr. Michael P ByronMichael P Byron is the author of the just released book The Path Through Infinity's Rainbow: Your Guide to Personal Survival and Spiritual Transformation in a World Gone Mad. This book is a manual for taking effective action to deal with the crises of our age including global climate change, peak oil, and political failure to deal with these and other problems.

His previous book is Infinity's Rainbow: The Politics of Energy, Climate and Globalization.

Byron has a Ph.D. ...

to see more of bio, click on member name

It'd be interesting to combine a systems & Chaos theory

Rob,

Thanks for the kind words.

Central to chaos theory is the concept of "sensitive dependence on initial conditions." This is popularly known as "the butterfly efect." Such an approach would lead to the conclusion that even small differences in "trajectory" do matter. I think that it also leads to the conclusion that we could not know the outcome of those changes beyond the near future.

BTW: I encouraged readers of my 2nd book entitled The Path Through Infinity's Rainbow in a footnote on page 141 to read OpEdNews.com stating "...OpEdNews.com at http://www.OpEdNews.com is a good source for original opinion pieces."

Mike Byron

by Dr. Michael P Byron (10 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 5 comments) on Monday, June 16, 2008 at 10:23:46 AM

DOB -- September 20, 1940. Became active in civil rights and peace movements in 1962. Active in socialist and antiwar movements -- 1963-69. Active in Gay Liberation from 1969 to present.
rhalfhillDOB -- September 20, 1940. Became active in civil rights and peace movements in 1962. Active in socialist and antiwar movements -- 1963-69. Active in Gay Liberation from 1969 to present.

WHAT ABOUT NADER OR MCKINNEY?

How about considering the effect of a Ralph Nader or a Cynthia McKinney Presidency from the perspective of systems theory? The Democrats have disappointed peoples hopes for change every time the voters have put them in power, so we cannot expect any reals difference in the path the systems takes from electing either the Democrat or Republican.

Robert Halfhill

by rhalfhill (3 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 283 comments) on Monday, June 16, 2008 at 11:28:53 AM