Even optimists are
starting to have second thoughts about the Arab Spring, which is quickly
turning into blood showers. The numbers of dead and injured are astounding and
the prize so far is confined to three bad possibilities. An extension of a
dictatorial corrupt regime such as the case in Egypt, the election of an
Islamist party that the west don't understand nor trust, as the case is in
Tunisia, or an endless insane killing as the case seem to be in Syria, Libya,
and Yemen. This bleak picture is unfortunately true.
Consecutive American
administrations based its policy in the Arab World, on the need for stable
regimes that can maintain the critical oil supply, while ensuring the safety of
Israel. The American partner in this policy has been corrupted and autocratic
regimes that controlled their countries with iron fests.
The premise of stability
was shattered on September 11. However, instead of reassessing our policies and
trying to understand the cause and effect we started endless debate about an
imaginary clash of civilization. None of our think tanks stopped to argue that
in the age of the internet there is only one civilization with different levels
of restrictions imposed on its inhabitants.
This year, our
politicians were shocked, as usual, to discover that the people of the Arab
World, wearing headscarf or jeans and sometimes both, demanded freedom and were
willing to die for democracy. The so-called Arab Spring surprised the world and
specially America.
In the case of Egypt,
after a few days of confusion, the American government supported at least publicly
handing Mubarak's power to the second in command, a junta of Egyptian generals.
In Libya, our government participated in the physical removal of Gaddafi. In
Bahrain, Yemen, and Syria Obama's administration shut in different degrees
their eyes on the ongoing brutality.
Ten month after the
initial spark, demonstrations are igniting once again in Tahreer square. The
Syrian revolution that started peaceful is sliding slowly into an armed
conflict, and Yemen is disintegrating. The Arab revolutions are moving to a
next phase that is impossible to defined, but will clearly reshape the region
and impact American interests for years to come.
The first step to deal
with the challenging environment is to understand that stability built on
autocracy is over, because the genie is already out of the bottle. The
options left for America in the Middle East are either to stand idle, which
will definitely elongate people's struggle or to support the revolutionary
movements to the dismay of some old allies.
In such turning points,
history can provide NO guarantees. But, logically an elongated struggle will
most likely bring extreme religious factions. These extremists are already presenting
themselves as the alternative to the secular institutional corruption supported
by America and the west. On the other hand, a shorter struggle can enable the
real actors of the revolution, mostly liberals and moderate Islamists, to
provide a reliable alternative.
It is in America's interest
to support a peaceful and speedy power transfer.
America has developed
over the last forty years the Egyptian military apparatus and even handpicked
their leadership. This influence is the result of 1.3 billion dollars in
military aid that goes mainly to buy loyalty through fancy long training
engagements and huge commissions permissible by Egyptian laws. This is the time
to use this capital.
I'm quite confident that
the American administration is able, if willing, to advice/ pressures the Egyptian
generals in private to share power with a civilian leadership representing all
the major political factions. Such move will bring immediate calm to the
explosive situation in Egypt and should be a first step towards complete and
real power transfer to elected civilians. The new Egyptian administration might
be less loyal to America than Mubarak and his cronies, but the people of Egypt
and the rest of the Arab world can and will support America if the American
administration is smart enough to support freedom and democracy.
A resolution to the
Egyptian crisis will serve as a model to bring back stability to other
countries within the region. America should support the Arab revolution because
of principles, but it is also good for business.
