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What is the Case for Syria?

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This seems like it may have been the result of a proposed oil pipeline to Europe that Assad refused in the same year. Qatar was hoping to run a pipeline from their North field through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Turkey and into Europe, purposefully skipping Russia. Syria rejected this to protect Russia's role as Europe's top supplier of natural gas. Instead, Assad negotiated a pipeline that would go from Iran into Iraq and Syria and then into Europe by ship. This would allow Iran and Iraq to supply the European market while bypassing Turkey which is likely the main reason Turkey vehemently supports regime change in Syria. This "Islamic Gas Pipeline" would be a very profitable enterprise for Iran which is probably a big part of why the Western powers are so anxious for Assad to be replaced. Isolating Iran has become the name of the game. Turkey is part of NATO and no ally of Iran meaning Europe and the US would prefer their money goes to Saudi Arabia and Qatar via Turkey instead of to Iran and Iraq via Syria.

 

Saudi Arabia also took this change of plans badly and Prince Bandar would meet with Vladimir Putin to try to get him to onto their side and to stop protecting Assad. Their leaked transcripts would have Prince Bandar trying to form an alliance between Russia and OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries). Prince Bandar also promised to protect Russia's naval base in Syria if Assad falls. However, if Putin refused to cooperate, Prince Bandar threatened Russia's Olympics with Chechen terrorist attacks while saying that there would be "no escape from the military option." Putin did refuse and it seems like Obama is hoping to fulfill Prince Bandar's promise.

 

So, in an anti-climatic turn of events, it seems likely that Western involvement in the Middle East is once again about oil instead of humanitarian reasons. Fortunately, since Obama's blustering on the issue has failed to raise a coalition of the willing at home or abroad, a diplomatic solution has been created that allows Obama to save face. John Kerry, replying to a question of whether an attack could be avoided, said "Sure, he could turn over every bit of his weapons to the international community within the next week, without delay. But he isn't about to."

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Russia was "willing to engage" with this idea and would try to get Syria to hand over the chemical weapons.

 

The US had discussed this idea before but thought it was not possible as they felt they could not trust Assad to not simply hide weapons and use the disarmament time to further entrench. Apparently Kerry "still feels it is not possible" to arrange this transaction so it's possible the US is not intending to take this solution seriously and this talking is just the logical result of Kerry not wanting to seem too vicious by having said that there was nothing Syria could do to avoid being attacked. However, whether or not the US is serious on this, a potential escape hatch has opened that allows the US to claim a victory while not having to go through with a war that no one supported.

 

Of course, if the oil conflict theory is correct, it'll likely only be a temporary reprieve unless Assad stops supporting the pipeline from Iran and agrees to the one from Qatar.

 

Interesting to remember that the West's closest ally in the Middle East after Israel are Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia and Qatar consist of primarily orthodox Sunni Muslims with about 40% of those in Saudi Arabia being Salafiyya, derogatorily know as Wahhabi, the most intolerant sect of Islam which makes up the majority of radical Islamic fundamentalists. Iran on the other hand is almost entirely Shi'ite and leans towards the secular. Which country did fifteen of the nineteen 9/11 hijackers come from again?

 

An eventual peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians would have the added benefit of allowing the rift between Iran and the West to heal. This would allow us to start purchasing oil from Middle Eastern countries that don't have large Wahhabi movements that disproportionately produce West-hating radicals.

 

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25 year-old Canadian student, currently attaining my masters in political science. Work with mentally disabled individuals for employment. Try to be politically involved. A card-carrying member of the provincial and federal green parties of Canada. (more...)
 
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