October 17, 2007 at 10:17:03

Will Dems Commit Political Suicide in '08?: An Address to Democrats Abroad

SAVE AS FAVORITE

VIEW FAVORITES

By Bernard Weiner, The Crisis Papers (about the author) Page 3 of 4 page(s)

opednews.com Permalink

>> Editor: ... As of today, I will vote for Sen. Barack Obama or Bill Richardson [in the primary], because in my opinion, Sen. Hillary Clinton is the best chance the Democrats have to lose the 2008 presidential general election.

>> If she is their nominee, hatred of her will motivate Republican conservatives to vote and work to elect the Republican candidate, whoever he is.

>> At the same time, Clinton is the most likely to drive a third party candidate from her left to enter the race. The growing number of independent voters includes disaffected Republicans and they, too, would be more inclined to vote Republican if Clinton is the Democratic candidate.

>> Even though I strongly feel that the U.S. will be best served if a Democrat, not a Republican, is elected President in 2008, I will vote for a third-party candidate, even if it means the Republican candidate is elected. I won't be alone in doing so.

>> JIM DICARLO San Francisco (9/23/07)

THE WOULD-BE NOMINEES

The candidates vying for the Dem presidential nomination are nothing like the embarrassing lot the Republicans are putting up -- virtually every one of the Democrats in the running would make a far better President than any of the GOP hopefuls. Just look at these guys: Giuliani (a shameless, authoritarian, monomanical liar), Thompson (a bumbling, would-be Reagan), McCain (a total sell-out on the war), Romney (a thoroughgoing, flip-floppping hypocrite trying to buy his way to the presidency), etc. etc. But the fact that Hillary Clinton, Karl Rove's preferred candidate, is running away with the nomination race is not necessarily good news for the Democrats.

We now know that the Republicans have been preparing their smear campaigns against Hillary, and John Edwards, for years. (Indeed, a recent story ( http://harpers.org/archive/2007/10/hbc-90001405 ) revealed how illegal actions were taken to smear Edwards in 2004.) Poll after poll has demonstrated that there has been and will continue to be a 40% block of American voters who loathe Clinton and would never vote for her. So in order for Clinton to win, she has to hold on to the 40% who reliably vote the Democratic ticket, and then win the moderates and independents in the middle. This might be possible if she could hold onto that firm 40%. But there is a huge swatch of the Democratic Party, mainly from the dedicated activist base, who do not wish to support Hillary because of her generally hawkish, wishy washy positions on the war, her more-macho-than-you attitude on Iran, her lining up with institutional forces such as with big pharma on the health-care issue, and so on.

So, even though she may be highly intelligent, and has run an impressive primary campaign to date, she simply may not be electable -- conceivably putting Rudy Giuliani or another GOP neanderthal in the White House -- and her selection could diminish any coattail influence she might have on other races.

The general take on Barack Obama is that he's an exciting candidate, bright, energetic, charismatic -- filled with good ideas and, on occasion, not afraid to express them -- but not quite mature enough as a national politician, with not much of an experiential record to run on. He's certainly a positive, fresh new face, and will be a force to be reckoned with in 2112 and beyond, but probably not this time out, unless as the vice presidential nominee on someone else's ticket (Richardson/Obama?)

John Edwards has a long history as an effective anti-corporate individual of conscience, and he's been quite effective staking out his progressive opinions during this primary stretch. The Rove wing of the GOP wants to take out Edwards early, as he's an effective populist campaigner. It looks as if he might score big in the Iowa caucuses, coming in first or second, and gain some momentum. But the media, echoing the White House spin, has been largely ignoring his campaign or treating him roughly.

As you can see, Obama and Edwards are battling for the same block of voters -- the liberal-to-progressive, anti-war, anti-Clinton wing of the Democratic Party. By splitting the energy, money and support, they almost guarantee that Hillary will be the nominee of the party.

I haven't mentioned Kucinich, Biden, Dodd, Richardson, Gravel because, as intelligent and courageous as some of them have been -- especially Richardson on the war and Kucinich in a number of areas -- they've gone nowhere in the polls and probably stand little chance of capturing the nomination.

THE FLUIDITY OF POLITICS

Things are fairly fluid politically right now. As I've written previously, there is a potential opening for a third-party run, drawing from the disenchanted wings of both the Republican and Democratic parties. Is there a charismatic crossover candidate willing to take advantage of that momentary opening to help mount a viable run for the White House in 2008? If a strong third party candidacy emerged, which major party would be most helped, the Republicans or the Democrats? Could the Republican candidate slide by into the White House if too many Democrats deserted their party to vote for this third-party candidate? Might the chances for popular approval soar if that third-party were to create a bi-partian "Unity" ticket, made up of a leading Democrat and a leading, anti-war Republican. (Gore/Hagel?)

Finally, a longer-range thought. Even if a viable third party doesn't get born this time out, the Democrats are ripe, as are the Republicans, for a good, long, soul-searching debate about the future of the party. Redefining the mission. Coming up with some philosophies of governance, and foreign policies, we all can agree on. Developing policy statements in various areas that are not just reactions to what the Republicans are doing. Etc. Etc.

1 | 2 | 3 | 4

www.crisispapers.org

Bernard Weiner, Ph.D. in government & international relations, has taught at universities in California and Washington, worked for two decades as a writer-editor at the San Francisco Chronicle, and currently serves as co-editor of The Crisis Papers (more...)

The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author
and do not necessarily reflect those of this website or its editors.