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Stoking Tensions, Risking Confrontation: A High Stakes US Gamble with Russia
By Stephen Lendman (about the author) Page 3 of 6 page(s)
On August 28, Prime Minister Putin had his say. Was outspoken in a CNN interview, and accused the Bush administration of failing to keep Georgia from attacking South Ossetia. This, he said, damaged bilateral relations. He suggested a possible darker motive as well: "....that someone in the United States created this conflict on purpose to stir up the situation and create an advantage for one of the (presidential) candidates. They needed a small victorious war" - a clear reference to John McCain although he didn't say.
He also said "not only (did the administration fail) to restrain the Georgian leadership from this criminal action, but the American side in fact trained and equipped the Georgian army....We (also) have serious reasons to believe that directly in the combat zone citizens of the United States were present. If the facts are confirmed....that means only one thing - that they could be there on the direct instruction of their leadership....following a direct order from their leader, and not on their own initiative." Col. General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, Russia's deputy chief of general staff, said Russian forces had a US passport for Michael Lee White of Texas in a ruined building near Tskhinvali and showed what was found.
Putin stressed that Russia would respond to the killing of its citizens and peacekeepers and wouldn't let possible G-8 membership expulsion or threatened EU actions deter it.
With this going on, heavily armed US and other NATO warships entered the Black Sea on the pretext of delivering humanitarian aid. Nogovitsyn called it a task for merchant ships. Suggested it further heightens tensions and said: "I don't think such a buildup will foster the stabilization of the atmosphere in the region." Other Russian military officials called the intrusion provocative and accused Washington of shipping new arms supplies.
On August 27, Reuters reported US General and NATO commander John Craddock's comments on a recent Tbilisi visit. He said Washington will likely provide military aid, and an anonymous US official confirmed that a US - Georgia dialogue is ongoing about replenishing the country's losses. Possibly also sending sophisticated weapons like Stinger antiaircraft missiles and portable antitank ones called Javelins. Training as well.
On August 27, the Jerusalem-based DEBKAfile reported that Captain Igor Dygalo, Russian Navy's deputy commander, said the Moskva missile cruiser would carry out a Black Sea naval exercise in response - a clear sign that Moscow intends to assert control and may interfere with 10 more encroaching Western vessels. According to Nogovitsyn: two American, four Turkish, and the others German, Polish and Spanish.
He also said NATO exhausted its Black Sea complement under international agreements and warned against sending more. DEBKAfile sources say 16 to 18 are planned, including the USS Mount Whitney, "one of the most advanced warships in the world." If true, this will heighten tensions further.
On August 29, DEBKAfile cited a Moscow media quote from former Russian Black Sea Fleet commander, Admiral Eduard Baltin, saying: "Despite the apparent strength of the NATO naval group in the Black Sea....a single salvo from the Moskva missile cruiser and two or three missile boats would be enough to annihilate the entire group. Within 20 minutes, the waters would be clear." He added that Russia "will not strike first...."
At the same time, Russian president Medvedev warned Moldova not to repeat Georgia's mistake by using force against Transdniestria. Russian peacekeepers have been on the ground there since 1990 after separatists broke away and established an independent republic. Under international law, it's more justifiable than Kosovo, but thus far with no outside recognition. Moldova is strategically located on the Black Sea's Western shore - close to the Crimean Peninsula and Russia's large Sevastopol, Ukraine naval headquarters.
On August 27, Ukraine upped the stakes and demanded Russia renegotiate its lease - good until 2017. A higher rental payment was asked, and (according to Russia Today) a new law was passed demanding 72 hours notice each time Russia's fleet leaves the base. It covers air traffic as well and asks for personnel involved, time of departure, and destination. Russia says the law violates its 1997 Moscow - Kiev agreement, so it's unclear if Ukraine will back down. Russia is in no mood to with Georgia on its mind and watching Washington behind the scenes orchestrating mischief.
Earlier on August 24, Russia's Navy chief, Admiral Vladimir Vysotsky, said its Black Sea Fleet now commands its Mediterranean ships as well. It came as the US carrier Iwo Jima (six-vessel) Expeditionary Strike Group heads for the region to link up with other US vessels, and Russia announced it will search all cargo transiting Georgia's Poti port that it controls. Thus far, Washington avoided confrontation by redirecting its warships to Georgian-controlled Batumi. An event duly noted in Moscow that responded by anchoring three missile boats and the Moskva missile cruiser at the Black Sea Sukhumi port.
The cat and mouse game continues, and it's not eased if South Ossetian reports are true. They claim Georgia is deploying military forces on its border, and (late last week) overnight firing on villages was heard. Georgia says Russia wants to annex its territory. Moscow asserts its right to protect South Ossetian and Abkhazian residents from made-in-Washington aggression - many of whom hold Russian passports. Tensions continue to escalate causing some analysts to say war is inevitable, and under a US neocon administration might involve a "proactive" nuclear strike.
An August 28 DEBKAfile report suggested that Russia takes this threat seriously. It headlined: "Russia successfully tests ICBM designed to beat anti-missile systems," according to Alexander Vovk, spokesman for Russia's strategic nuclear forces. He referred to the Topol RS-12M to be used against ground-based missiles and capable of "beating" any US "missile shield." The test followed Russia warning NATO against sending additional ships to the Black Sea that will only heighten tensions.
On August 28, RIA Novosti reported an escalation, a sign still more will follow - South Ossetian Interior Minister Mikhail Mindzayev stating that an unmanned Georgian reconnaissance plane was shot down over the capital, Tskhinvali at 20.10 GMT. He also said "several illegal armed groups were operating near the capital under orders from Georgian authorities to conduct subversive activities and terrorist acts." South Ossetian security forces formed "counter-terrorist units" to respond. On August 27, Col. General Nogovitsyn said a Georgian reconnaissance drone overflew South Ossetia at 11.15 GMT - spying in violation of existing agreements. A frequent practice prior to Georgia's August 7 aggression so it happening again is worrisome.
In an August 28 Russian newspaper, Vremya Novostei, interview, Russia's NATO ambassador, Dmitry Rogozin, warned that any Organization Caucasus attack would "mean a declaration of war on Russia." On August 27, The New York Times called him "a finger-wagging nationalist who hung a poster of Stalin in his new ambassadorial office...."
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