Charles Degelman
In 1729, British novelist and essayist
Jonathan Swift wrote "A Modest Proposal," in which he suggested
that the public might address the problem of childhood poverty by eating
the children of the poor. Only one small difference falls between Swift's
satire and the modest proposal outlined below: Swift's 18th-century
proposal was fabricated. The proposal outlined below channels recent
reality.
********
A MODEST PROPOSAL
A conservatively dressed young man with a
slightly rakish, close-cropped haircut enters a windowless meeting room in
the Pentagon and places a laptop on the table.
Gentlemen:
First, let me say how honored I am to be given
the opportunity to appear before the assembled talent of the Information
Awareness Office. Compared to the intelligence, sagacity, and experience
of the giants I see here today, I am a neophyte and a pygmy [laughter].
I am particularly honored that you, Admiral
Poindexter, took time out from your busy schedule. You have been a hero
and a role model for me since childhood, when I learned (in retrospect, of
course)[more laughter] how you applied your intelligence and cunning to
the problem of unsanctioned support for the Nicaraguan Contras in their
battle against communism. Welcome back to the Pentagon. You have been in
exile too long.
But let me get to the point. Over the centuries, the world of business has, in its eagerness to beat the competition, developed a remarkable ability to find out what is going on in the world. Studies have shown that market-based techniques are the best means to predict the probability of terrorist activity. If you'll bear with me, I have brought a simple graphic to illustrate these findings. [opens laptop, presses key, displays graphic on screen].
As you can see, general polls are very poor
at gathering information. A poll of "experts," such as the
Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is equally useless, followed closely
by Pentagon-type analysis. [uncomfortable stirring]. I'm sorry. Studies
show the best means for sniffing out trouble on an international level
resides-not in the intelligence community--but in business, particularly
in futures markets.
Futures markets have proven themselves to be
good at predicting elections, fluctuations in oil prices, and movie ticket
sales. Why not terrorist strikes or assassinations?
Think about it, folks. It makes sense doesn't
it? The stakes are pretty darned high if you want to put an oil pipeline
through Columbia or, say
Afghanistan. You'd want to know what's going
on before you dump a pile of money into a project like that, wouldn't you?
[mumbling and shuffling, indicating interest] You bet. And that's just
what the business community does. They find out.
But how do we tap into this? We're the
Pentagon. The answer is really quite simple. I suggest we set up a futures
market on terror. We invite 10,000 savvy, hand-picked international
traders to participate by buying stock in the terror market. We tell them:
"Involvement in this group prediction process should prove engaging
and may prove profitable." These traders will go for it. They love
international intrigue. They're used to working on incentive plans. Now,
down to the nuts and bolts.
Here's how a futures market on terrorism would
work. Traders would register and deposit money into an account similar to
a stock account and add to or lose their investment by trying to predict
events. Say you think Prime Minister X is going to assassinated. You buy
the futures contracts for five cents each. As more people begin to think
the leader is going to be assassinated, the cost of the stock goes up to,
say 50 cents a share. The payoff comes when the leader is assassinated.
Those who bought in at 5 cents make 45 cents a share. Those who failed to
predict, make nothing. Sure, we have to pay out a little money, but we
have already predicted that Prime Minister X is going to be assassinated.
Worth the price, no?
[Switches off graphic, turns on lights.]
So, that, in a nutshell, gentlemen (and
ladies, of course) is the plan for a futures market on terrorism.
Question: Do you folks at the Information Awareness Office have the
courage to embrace the fact that business has the biggest nose for news? I
urge you to think outside the envelope on this one:
It could put us on the map, and it would
only cost about $8 million dollars to launch.
[applause]
*********
SOURCES: The modest proposal above was
developed, approved by the Pentagon, and presented to the world on July
28, 2003. All technical descriptions, the graphic, and much of the
rhetoric for A Modest Proposal comes directly from:
Pentagon Information Awareness Office
http://www.darpa.mil/iao/
FutureMap graphic [The source for this graphic
<http://www.darpa.mil/iao/FutureMap.htm
>has since been expunged from the Pentagon/DARPA web site. -weasel
hunter]
New York Times 07/29/03
Pentagon
Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks
New York Times 07/29/03
Pentagon
Abandons Plan for Futures Market on Terror
Charles Degelman charlie@crf-usa.org
is a writer, editor, educator, and theatrical producer living in Los
Angeles. Published titles include books on media literacy, diversity, and
constitutional issues (1996-2001). His first novel, A Bowl Full of Nails
was finalist in the Bellwether Competition, sponsored by Barbara
Kingsolver (1999), He is also a musician and co-founder of Indecent
Exposure, a Los Angeles-based theater company dedicated to creating
original, socially relevant work for the stage.
Member, PEN Center, USA West, Member, National
Writers Union, Los Angeles Chapter
