Examining the misconceptions regarding off-shore oil and natural gas and the "Drill here, drill now" crowd, and the myth of the ANWR.

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I can't think of any subject that holds the headlines and both public and political debate as does oil. I also can't find too many other subjects where the discourse is mostly smack. Global climate change and the subject of oil rival each other for pundits and politicos making statements and pronouncements that appear to evince the same degree of intellectual credibility as a schnauzer explaining quantum mechanics. So let's take a look at the facts as they exist in the Real World.

First, let's examine the sacred shibboleths of drilling off-shore and in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge.

At the end of 2006, W. Bush signed into law "The Gulf of Mexico Energy Security Act" thus rescinding his daddy's ban. The Act opened up about 8 million acres of Outer Continental Shelf to drilling. It is estimated that this area contains possibly 40 billion barrels of oil. Estimated, that is. At the time the Act was signed, oil was around $60 a barrel. Since then, no drilling has occured. And yet, a few months ago when the price of oil temporarily dipped $10 a barrel, McCain was on the stump crowing that the drop in oil prices was due to Bush's lifting of the ban on off-shore drilling.

In other words, a very temporary downwards blip in oil was due to the President doing nothing.

OK - here is the Bush administration's own figures on oil and natural gas, from the Energy Information Administration's "Impacts of Increased Access to Oil and Natural Gas Resources in the Lower 48 Federal Outer Continental Shelf (OCS)" (Jan.1 2003)

OCS Areas           Crude Oil (billions of barrels)        Natural Gas (trillions of cubic feet)
Available for leasing and development

Eastern Gulf of Mexico               2.27                                         10.14
Central Gulf of Mexico              22.67                                       113.61
Western Gulf of Mexico            15.98                                         86.62
TOTAL AVAILABLE                    40.92                                      210.37

Unavailable for leasing and development

Washington-Oregon                   0.40                                             2.28
Northern California                     2.08                                             3.58
Central California                        2.31                                             2.14
Southern California                     5.58                                             9.75
Eastern Gulf of Mexico                 3.82                                           22.16
Atlantic                                        3.82                                           36.99
TOTAL UNAVAILABLE                  18.17                                         77.17

TOTAL LOWER 48 OCS                59.09                                         287.54

According to the EIA, oil companies had 40.92 billion barrels of Gulf oil available for leasing and development in 2003. Since then, in the last five years, only 7 billion barrels have been discovered.

The federal moratorium only blocks about 18 billion barrels, almost all of which is due to California's refusal to increase off-shore drilling. That leaves about 8 billion barrels available for exploitation - basically what the world uses in three months. And then, of course, there's the time frame. Every time a Republican or Fox News and its microcephalic talking heads tout off-shore drilling, the time frame goes down. First it was a realistic 10 years, then 8 to 10, then 5 years, then an utterly absurd one to two years. Pretty soon I'll expect Sean Inannity or McSame to be exhalting that we can have it out of the ground and into the gas tank by Friday, noon.

Let's understand something here; off-shore drilling is extremely expensive. There's a lack of drilling platforms and a paucity of trained workers, so when you commit yourself to drilling, you'd better be damn sure that you're right. That's why seismic analysis takes so long. Ask anyone in the actual oil industry and they'll tell you that after a lease becomes available you'll have to wait anywhere from 5 to 10 years before you even get exploratory drilling. The oil available right now for leasing and development will not become a factor until 2020.

And that's the industry's figure, not mine.

In this particular space-time continuum we like to call The Real World, by 2020, lifting the moritorium on off-shore drilling may add approximately 50,000 to 100,000 barrels a day to the nation's oil supply.

Will this lower the price of oil? Perhaps one might think this if they were utterly bat-s__t crazy. The Saudis announced that they would be increasing production to add an additional 500,000 barrels a day by the end of 2008 and it didn't have the slightest effect on oil prices - none!

So what was the Energy Information Administration's final doom on the subject? At the end of their above report they had this to say:

"The projections of the OCS access case indicate that access to the Pacific, Atlantic and Eastern Gulf regions would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or prices before 2020."

Right - and so much for that particular fairy tale. Now let's take a brief look at the ANWR.

According to Cheney, that personification of veracity, drilling in the ANWR will only affect a mere 2000 acres. This, of course, represents the acreage the drill platforms will cover, not the infrastructure, pipelines, etc. His statement is like saying that a moving car only occupies a few inches of road - which is correct if your definition of "occupy" has been narrowed to count only the space the tires touch the pavement at any given second. Air Fleischer, one of the Bush administration's professional equivocators once said  the ANWR reserves are "so massive that they will last for an extended long period of time."

Apart from the fact that his statement contains a redundancy, it is, needless to say, complete bollocks. The most optimistic figures estimate the ANWR reserves to be in the 600,000 to 900,000 barrel-a-day range, but only after 7 to 12 years' development. That's 9 to 10 month's consumption at the US's current rate of 20 million barrels a day.

However, that figure represents only the total amount of "technically recoverable" oil. That's akin to my claiming I could "technically" be sleeping with Pamela Anderson tonight. Well, "technically," it's possible, but I leave it to you to run the figures on the chances of it actually happening.

The US Geological Survey has a second set of numbers on ANWR, calculating what it calls the "economically recoverable oil." This re-jigs the USGS figures on "technically recoverable oil" to a maximum of 5.6 billion barrels. This will only lower US import needs by 2% and only after a minimum of 7 to 8 years.
If the fuel efficiency of the average car were increased a mere 3 miles per gallon - which is easily within our capablility - the resultant savings in oil would be five times what ANWR at its most optimistic is capable of producing.

Pity for us the Bush administration bent over and dropped its trousers for the oil industry almost eight years ago.

Part Two to follow soon. Get'cher popcorn.

Authors Website: www.I, Rantibus.com

Authors Bio:
F. Braun McAsh has been a professional actor and fight choreographer since 1976. He is also a published writer and author. He is best known as the Swordmaster for the TV series "Highlander" and the 4th movie, "Highlander:Endgame." In October of 2008, Braun launched his first blog, "I, Rantibus" a political commentary and humor blog featuring "An Observer's Guide to the Right Wing." The blog's goal, like OpEdNews, is to do justice to important news items that either got short shrift or were largely ignored by the mainstream media. When not teaching or learning more methods of wreaking havoc on the human body, Braun enjoys historical fencing, wilderness camping,whipping on the Bush administration, and attempting to determine the exact species Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh represent. He lives on the side of a mountain where his next door neighbor is a racoon named Nigel.