A look at what impact some Clinton supporters rejection of the Obama Campaign may have on the election.

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Senator Obama, not unlike Senator McCain, has a problem:

A poll released Friday by CNN and Opinion Research Corp. found that nearly a third of those who voted for Sen. Clinton in the primaries said they would stay home in November rather than vote for Sen. Obama. A similar poll taken by the two organizations in early June found only 22% expressing that sentiment. In the latest poll, only 54% of Clinton voters said they were planning to back Sen. Obama.

You may be wondering how this will impact the electoral landscape. If you’re not, go away.

The Independent provides a good outline of the grievances some former Clinton supporters have with the Obama camp.

Many disaffected Clinton supporters and fundraisers believe Mr Obama did not do enough during the primary contest to end what they believe was a sneering campaign in the media. They are still angry at the way pundits referred to Mrs Clinton’s laugh as a “cackle.”

There is also anger at the way the mainstream media picked up on the comedian Chris Rock’s comparison of Mrs Clinton to the knife- wielding madwoman in the movie Fatal Attraction.

Some of Mrs Clinton’s fundraisers are pressuring the Democratic nominee to give her a prominent role in the general election campaign and in a future Obama administration.

That disaffection has led Obama into a situation which, though reminiscent of McCain’s problem with evangelicals, is fundamentally quite different. By and large, the disaffection with Obama in the Democratic Party isn’t motivated by policy differences, as it is with McCain. The Nobama Network, for example, has this to say:

Americans are feeling angry, appalled, defeated, and invisible. Often we hear our neighbors and friends remark they are not going to vote because their vote does not count. If you are feeling disenfranchised by your party, the DNC, or by the news media it is time for you to take a stand. On this site you will find numerous Grass Root Movements of people like yourself fighting for change. Find one that speaks to you, spend some time posting to Blogs, and talk to your neighbors and friends. Every vote counts and each voice will be heard. Get involved America. No one has the right to tell you what candidate to support or how to vote.

This tends to be the common theme amongst anti-Obama Democrats — disenfranchisement. Pat at the Clinton Dems writes this:

We need to stay alive in the news and get this Joker Obama out of our Election. The elections belong to the people. Make and act on your vote for Hillary now and take action.

Joe Gandelman at The Moderate Voice sums up well:

American political history is dotted by instances of parties that lost because the candidates that emerged simply couldn’t bring the party together over divisive policy issues.

Could this be the first election where the media making fun of a laugh that pundits described as a “cackle” helped cause partisans of a party to sit on their hands and watch the defeat of their party’s candidate (and perhaps their own hopes to change the direction of the Supreme Court) in a general election?

If that happens, then the REAL “cackle” will come from John McCain.

The Obama Campaign appears to be taking the problem very seriously. Most recently, it was announced that Dana Singiser, the Clinton campaign’s women’s outreach director, has been hired on to continue that role for Obama. The degree to which the disaffection with Obama demonstrated by many Clinton supporters will continue is difficult to discern. Election day is still relatively far off, and much of this resentment may die down as the campaign proceeds and anger fades. But, for the sake of argument, let’s assume that none of this resentment fades and these voters either stay home or vote McCain. What impact does that have on the electoral math?

Under virtually no circumstances will Obama lose California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Hawaii, The District of Columbia, or Maryland, and based on current polling it is very unlikely that he would lose New Jersey, Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania. That amounts to 238 electoral votes, 32 short of the 270 needed to win.

That leaves Michigan, Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio as tossups. Let’s go to the play-by-play.

Michigan

The most recent Quinnipac poll puts Obama at 48% to McCain’s 42%, a lead almost double the 3.4% victory John Kerry got there over President Bush. Obama pulls 52% of women, McCain 38%. Even if the 10% of women who are undecided go 2-to-1 for McCain, Obama takes Michigan and its 17 electoral votes.

Virginia

Virginia is going to be a squeaker, whatever happens. Survey USA puts Obama at 49% to McCain’s 47%. Women break 58% to 36% for Obama, with 5% undecided. If the majority of those 5% go for McCain, it could put Virginia’s 13 electoral votes out of Obama’s reach.

Nevada

Rasmussen’s latest here has McCain up 45% to 42% for Obama, down from a six point lead last month. Obama’s strength amongst Democrats has increased substantially following the suspension of Senator Clinton’s campaign, rising from 65% to 74%, and McCain trails amongst women by eight points. One quarter of unaffiliated voters in Nevada are still undecided — it would take a crystal ball that actually worked (I’m looking at you, Professor Sabato) to figure out the future in store for these five electoral votes.

New Hampshire

New Hampshire probably isn’t as close as it appears, but the lack of much polling data here makes it difficult to tell. Rasmussen’s mid-June poll is the most recent, and puts Obama up 50% to 39%. If those are hard numbers, and I’m inclined to think they are (particularly in like of the 2006 House races there), defections aren’t going to make a dent. That’s four electoral votes for Obama.

New Mexico

The two most recent polls here, conducted at almost the exact same time in mid-June, put Obama up by three and by eight. Rasmussen has Obama at 47% to McCain’s 39% (they also had Obama up 50% - 41% in May) and Survey USA has Obama at 49% to McCain’s 46%. Survey USA has Obama with 62% of women and 77% of Democrats with 5% undecided. Rasmussen has Obama at 72% among Democrats and an eleven point lead amongst women. This one goes to Obama with five more electoral votes.

Indiana

The last three polls here, spread out over several months, all show the same thing: a one point lead for Obama. The most recent, from June, is Survey USA’s, which shows a 48%-47% Obama lead — pretty incredible considering John Kerry lost Indiana by nearly 21%. Obama takes 51% of women and 78% of Democrats with two percent undecided in each group. If these numbers are right, even if half of undecided Democrats vote McCain, Obama still squeaks by in the Hoosier state. I’m not so bold as to go ahead and give Obama Indiana’s 11 electoral votes, but it’s hardly out of the question.

Missouri

The most recent poll is Survey USA’s and has McCain up by seven. 8% of Democrats and 9% of women are still undecided here, but it would take a near sweep by Obama to pull ahead. It’s very unlikely that Obama takes Missouri’s 11 electoral votes.

Colorado

Colorado has become a hot ticket for Democrats in recent years, and this environmentally friendly state holds promise for Obama. The latest Quinnipac poll here has Obama up, with 49% to McCain’s 44%. Obama leads McCain amongst women, 53% to 39%, and has a huge lead amongst independents. It looks like it would take a massive shift to put Colorado back in the red category in November, so I’ll give Obama these nine electoral votes.

Florida

Rasmussen has McCain up 48% to 41% in Florida, and it looks unlikely that Obama will pull out a win here. Obama has 71% of Democrats and a two point lead amongst women, but even a sweep of undecideds leaves Obama short of these 27 electoral votes.

North Carolina

Rasmussen, the most recent non-partisan poll in the Tar Heel State, has McCain up 45% to 43%. Obama pulls 76% of Democrats, but it’s going to be a close one and a defection by Clinton backers could keep these 15 electoral votes out of Obama’s hands. A win for Obama here is definitely possible, but decidedly unlikely.

Ohio

Survey USA has Obama up 48% to 46%. Obama takes 59% of women and 75% of Democrats, with 7% and 5% undecided, respectively, along with 16% of independents. Obama should take the lion’s share of the remaining independent vote, but if a substantial number of remaining Democrats and Women go to McCain, the Republican could take these 20 electoral votes. Obama has the edge here, but I’m not ready to give it to him.

So what does all that add up to? Obama comes out with 273 electoral votes, with wins in Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Colorado. I see those four states as almost certain victories for Obama, insofar as there is any certainty in such things. That also assumes, of course, that Obama loses Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, Indiana, and Missouri — and that is very unlikely.

The long and short of it is, Senator Obama is poised for a landslide victory in the electoral college, regardless of the defections of Clinton supporters. The nationwide polls demonstrating that only bare majorities of Clinton supporters would back Obama don’t mean anything. The bulk of those voters are likely in states that Obama won’t lose — states like New York — or states that Obama definitely will lose, like West Virginia. Most of the states in play now are states that Obama won, often by landslides, in the primary. The bottom line is this: Most likely, support for Obama amongst Clinton voters will rise significantly between now and November. But even now, with nearly a quarter of Democrats not backing Obama, the stage is set for a monumental shift in the electoral map. Obama is running neck and neck with McCain in states like Virginia and North Carolina and Indiana without full Democratic support. For reference, those states went to Bush in 2004 by margins of 8.2%, 12.4%, and 20.7% respectively. If that doesn’t signal something huge, I just don’t know what does.

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