"Why is Fidel Castro Stepping Down Now?" and "What Should the U.S. Do Next?"

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Let me address the “Why is Fidel Castro Stepping Down Now?” and “What Should the U.S. Do Next?” in two parts: 

Part 1 – Fidel Castro Stepping Down – The Real Reason 

It’s remarkable the level and quantity of debate on “why” Fidel Castro is stepping down as President, yet the absolute dearth of any correct assessment arising from it. 

Why is Fidel Castro stepping down now?  

The simple answer: He fears his mortality is near and accordingly his legacy in very serious jeopardy. 

Here’s a man who would never give up power if he knew he’d live another 5, 10 or 15 years. Power is in his genes. It's who he is. 

Therefore one must ask why then now? Perhaps he learned a lesson from history, in one iconic Alexander the Great. 

Clearly it’s now dawned upon Fidel, likely through doctor messaging that his days on this planet are numbered and he should begin parting preparations. Whatever real illness he has, he’s evidently rapidly succumbing to it, evidence his “visibly” relinquishing power vis-à-vis resignation.  

Alexander the Great, brilliant as he was, made a fatal, ego driven legacy mistake. He became so enamored and full of himself, and convinced in a belief that what he built would last forever, that he made no real succession planning preparations to ensure that. As a result, his death triggered ruthless power struggles, like jackals over a carcass, which ultimately led to loss of much of the empire Alexander had so proudly built. 

Politics and ideology differences aside, Fidel Castro is credited as a smart and shrewd man, and evidently in this Analyst’s view, recognized, understands and is now embracing history's lesson learned from Alexander. He can now see he too runs the same risk as Alexander in having all that he’s achieved rapidly undone once he passes away.  

There are many reform minded leaders in the Cuban government, notably within the powerful core leadership team, the Council of Ministers, itching for a chance at power and steering Cuba in their own direction. And just like Alexander’s lieutenants, ready to pounce on a power vacuum. If that happened, Fidel Castro runs the real risk he’ll too quickly fade into history as nothing more than a tenured dictator whose policies and ideology did not survive his death. 

Therefore, the only way Fidel Castro can ensure and preserve his legacy and what he has built, is by quickly establishing a formal succession plan, and identifying someone who will carry his torch once he’s gone. Someone he trusts and has staying power. The only one he can be sure of as respects trusting is brother Raul. Trust however is not good enough. Raul needs “power grooming and consolidation”. 

Fidel astutely realizes that Raul cannot overnight, as would be the case if Fidel retained power until death, be guaranteed to survive a vicious power struggle. Raul’s assumption to power under those circumstances provides no guarantee he will survive given the power grabbing free for all ala Alexander that would ensue.

So to preclude that from happening, Fidel knows Raul must secure a (strong) power base “before” Fidel passes on, to ensure Raul’s sustained longevity and Fidel’s legacy. Fidel realizes the only guarantee of that longevity then is for Raul not to be "thrown into" the role upon his death but rather "grow into" the role while he's still alive. Therefore, give Raul his wings now to endure a base building “power consolidation period” while Fidel is still alive and can act as the helpful cajoler, enforcer and usual heavy hand. In other words, let Raul learn to fly now, while big brother can provide the necessary protective air cover.

Bottom line, Fidel Castro is not stepping down because he (really) wants to or is physically (yet) unable to perform in the role of President. He’s stepping down now solely and because he’s astutely learned Alexander’s legacy lesson on succession planning and legacy preservation/continuity. To ensure his, he has to get Raul “promptly and officially” in the job, out and about, and with enough time to secure that power base, so when Fidel Castro closes his eyes for the final time, there is absolutely no debate or food fight as to “who’s in charge”. 

That said, the question then becomes:  

Part 2 – What Should The U.S. Do? 

With his appointment by Cuba’s National Assembly yesterday to “officially” replace Fidel Castro as President, Raul Castro’s subsequent statement made it clear who will (still) be pulling the strings in Cuba. Yesterday’s AP report on the selection noted ”The new president proposed consulting with the ailing 81-year-old Fidel on all major decisions of state, and parliament approved the proposal”.

As most expected, and now confirmed that Fidel Castro will still be the power behind the throne, there is still much the U.S. can do as respects establishing a Cuban engagement plan. One encompassing both a “Fidel driven Raul” now and a successor “Raul driven Raul” plan upon Fidel’s death. 

That sequential engagement plan should cater to Raul Castro’s interest in self preservation, itself a function of the people’s interest to a return to the pre-revolution glory days of capitalism and wealth generation, absent the corruption of course. He totally lacks Fidel’s charisma and legend and therefore will need to rely more on compromise for survival. In fact, it’s hard to see any sibling resemblance whatsoever, whether physically or persona wise. The contrast in “command presence” between the two in all respects is striking. Raul is anything but a Fidel clone, making his leadership challenge that much more difficult. 

A lifting of the almost 5 decade old embargo is something both brothers crave and can now be a more leverage-able negotiation tool for Cuban political, social and economic changes. It would however, be naïve to think Raul Castro will ever fully dismiss communism for democracy. However, his to be adopted brand of Commulism, unlike the Chinese, may be one the U.S. and WEAST (U.S. WEst and eAST allies) can take advantage of. The embargo lifting being a key chip to drive Raul to implement substantive reforms his brother refuses and will never do. That chip though is likely not playable until Fidel is gone, meaning the embargo will continue as long as he does.  

The question then being how can the U.S. and WEAST leverage this interim softening to exploit Cuba’s substantive geo-political connections and influence throughout the globe, to their advantage, turning Cuba from Cold War political enemy and liability to future political/economic asset. In particular, how then to leverage Cuba’s leadership in the global “non-aligned movement” to in fact achieve better alignment with those nations the U.S./WEAST need to but can’t without a door opener like Cuba.  

Putting that in perspective, and the “influence play” potential with Cuba, note that Cuba was the principal architect in the construct and launch of the NAM – “Non-Aligned Movement” in Havana. That group was officially born under the “Havana Declaration of 1979”. Fidel Castro was NAM’s first President and interestingly in Sept. 2006, re-elected for a second term. Even more intriguing, was the subsequent assignment of Raul Castro as Acting NAM President until Fidel Castro recovers from his illness, which again, now appears unlikely. Again, putting Raul as Acting NAM President was another way for Fidel to begin to up profile Raul to allies and the world; another step in securing a power base .  

In other words, Cuba has (better) access and/or (better) influence to/on many nations the U.S. either needs to better and/or start embracing, and Raul is now “Chairman of the Board” or gatekeeper so to speak of this group. He’s stealthily emerging as a potential major power player. Cuba’s (Raul’s) value then is as a door opener or strategic “influence play”, a de-facto global lobbyist, noting as of 2007, the NAM comprised an astounding 118 nations. 

An emerging opportunity here for the U.S. and WEAST to constructively put the past behind and temper/remove one of the United States’ legacy, disproportionately time consuming thorns to create a vastly improved relationship situation and the “global access benefits” that would flow accordingly. Of course, this collaboration would not be at the expense or cost of ever endorsing any aspect of Cuba’s communism ideology, regardless of whatever form or remainder exists post Fidel.  

Bottom line, Fidel learned from Alexander on preserving the past. The U.S. and WEAST now have an opportunity to learn to work with Raul in helping to fundamentally transform Cuba from threat to constructive geographical neighbor in the future.  

It’s in the U.S., WEAST, Cuban people and Raul’s interest to do so.  

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Tomorrow - View on Kosovo

Authors Bio:

The cleverest of all, is the man who calls himself a fool at least once a month

- Fyodor Dostoyevsky

It is a curious fact that people are never so trivial as when they take themselves seriously...Some cause happiness wherever they go; others whenever they go

- Oscar Wilde

The situation is what it is...so deal with it...and then as General Patton inspiringly told his tankers...ADVANCE!!

- Brock Novak