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January 9, 2008

Why Hillary Clinton Beat Obama in New Hampshire

By Rev. Robert Vinciguerra

After most polls predicted a huge, double digit victory for Illinois Senator Barack Obama in New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary, the actual voters had an entirely different idea. Find out why.

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A brief look at quotes from the past news day:

"Hillary Rodham Clinton: Exhausted and frustrated by a campaign gone suddenly wrong." ? The Associated Press

"Only 2 people attend Clinton support meeting" ? A misleading headline from The Missourian

"So Much For a Raucous Caucus--Clinton Campaign in Freefall" ? The Seattlest

"Hillary's Poisonous NH Cloud" ? Grist Magazine Headline

"Barack Obama Will Win New Hampshire" ? Rockbridge Weekly

"Facing a double-digit defeat in New Hampshire, a sudden collapse in national polls and an expected fund-raising drought, Senator Hillary Clinton is preparing for a tough decision: Does she get out of the race? And when?!" ? Drudge Report

That's enough punditry for now. Here's the only quote that matters:

"Clinton 39%, Obama 37%" ? The New Hampshire Voters

After most polls predicted a huge, double digit victory for Illinois Senator Barack Obama in New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary, the actual voters had an entirely different idea.

Hillary Clinton's win is not just a win for her campaign and supporters, but it's a win for democracy and a democratic process, and a defeat for a media that's become over obsessed with horse races and poll numbers.

It's amazing, or at least it should be, that most of the national media had, to one degree or another, anointed Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee for President after a victory in the small state of Iowa, at a time when the vast majority of the country hasn't really started to pay any real attention yet, much less actually cast a vote!  

Why Obama Lost

In New Hampshire, Clinton didn't so much win as Barack Obama was rejected. Exit poll data reported by CNN shows that an estimated 15% of voters in the Democratic primary made up their minds in the final three days of the election, after Obama's stunning Iowa upset.

What the numbers mean is that actually took a harder, closer look at Obama as not only a candidate, but one who could well eventually become the nominee. A majority decided that they didn't want that day to come.

One reason for the defeat is Obama's relative inexperience in the political sphere combined with a perception that he might not win against a Republican "when it counts," said 29 year old Kelly Johnston of Manchester, NH to the Rev Rob Times. "I was behind Obama since the whole thing started, but I changed my mind at the last minute because I never thought he was really going to win ? I just liked his message a lot ? I really do like it, but then I imagined him in the oval office and voted for Hillary instead, because I think she can win and do a good job too."

As has been previously reported, in Iowa Obama made "pacts" with Richardson and Kucinich to siphon supports at the caucuses, and offered the same deal to Biden, which was refused. In addition, is campaign brought in out of state supports and distributed 50,000 fliers to students who are out of state residents to instruct them to caucus for Obama, as Bill Clinton mentioned in a stump speech for his wife.

There are new unconfirmed reports coming out of Iowa that in some precincts in which the precinct captain was an Obama supporter, the number of participants in the caucus was artificially increased so that caucus groups for lower tier candidates, (Biden, Dodd, Kucinich, and Richardson), would be declared non-viable, and supporters would have to disburse, forced to leave or support another candidate, thus making it likely for Obama to pick up additional supporters and increase his lead.

Unlike in Iowa, where there are no checks and balances and zero oversight into the process, the New Hampshire primary is designed like much like the presidential elections that most Americans are used to: One person, one vote, by secret ballot. It's impossible to cheat at all.

What's Next for Obama

Following New Hampshire, there are 49 more contests to go (yes, Washington DC counts) for Democrats. Obama will certainly win some and lose some, but he has learned that there is no such thing as the "politics of inevitability." Voters do make up their own minds, despite a media that is increasingly driving the debate away from the candidates and the issues.

It's telling that in Obama's concession speech, he used a teleprompter, something unusual for him to do. Clearly he had only memorized the victory speech and was surprised by the outcome. In this race, there will be a lot more surprises to come, because 'we the people' will decide the outcome, and no one else.



Authors Website: www.revrob.com

Authors Bio:
Founder of "The Rev. Rob Times," (www.revrob.com) Rev. Robert A. Vinciguerra has been a longtime student of journalism. From Phoenix, Arizona.

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