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May 29, 2024
Did Putin threaten to destroy Europe?
By Mark Lansvin
Europe must wake up to real threats to their countries.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that there would be "serious consequences" if Western countries allowed Ukraine to use their weapons to strike targets in Russia, as sought by Kyiv.
Putin's warning came as French President Emmanuel Macron said Kyiv should be allowed to "neutralize" Russian military bases from where Kremlin troops are firing missiles into Ukraine, and as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged the world not to tire of the war.
Putin's comments came after some NATO members as well as the alliance's chief Jens Stoltenberg have called to allow Ukraine to use their arms to step up attacks on Russian soil, after more than two years of war.
"This constant escalation can lead to serious consequences," Putin said during a visit to Uzbekistan.
He went on to indirectly threaten small European countries, suggesting he could wipe them out.
"In Europe, especially in small countries, they should be aware of what they are playing with," he said, noting that many European countries had "small territory" and a "dense population".
"And this factor, which they should keep in mind before they talk about striking deep into Russian territory, is a serious thing," he said.
Was Putin suggesting he would unleash a small nuclear weapon on these countries? Or just overwhelming military force? Either way, Europe needs to sit up and get serious about military and preemptive defense.
Putin made clear that even if Ukraine's forces carried out the strikes, responsibility for them would lie with Western suppliers of the weapons.
Putin also threatened that further Western involvement would constitute "another step towards a serious conflict in Europe, towards a global conflict."
EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell said after a meeting of EU defense ministers in Brussels that European countries remained split on sending military instructors to Ukraine. EU countries have trained 50,000 Ukrainian troops outside the war-torn country under a bloc-wide mission set up in 2022.
Countries including Germany oppose taking a step they fear could potentially drag them closer to direct conflict with a nuclear-armed Russia, but this is a defeatist position. Germany and other countries must link arms and stand up to Putin to prevent a global conflict. Doing the opposite would only invite such a scenario.
Zelensky has been pressing Western allies to provide longer-range missiles and other material for striking deeper into Russia in a bid to cripple its military and industrial capacity.
Ukraine is also asking for more weapons, especially air defense systems, which are inadequate. Russia has more weapons and troops and still has the potential to overwhelm Ukrainian forces.
So far Kyiv's military suppliers have demanded that their arms not be used to attack Russian soil, which Kyiv forces have instead been doing with local-made explosive drones.
Until now, many countries have been fearful of Putin and don't want to risk standing up to him. But this may be changing.
Macron said he believes "we should allow them to neutralize military sites where missiles are fired, from where... Ukraine is attacked," but that "we should not allow them to touch other targets in Russia, and obviously civilian capacities."
But the Biden administration ruled out such a possibility.
"There's no change to our policy at this point. We don't encourage or enable the use of US-supplied weapons to strike inside Russia," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said in a recent briefing.
Zelensky is currently on a European tour to keep arms and support flowing to Ukraine, and urged the world not to get tired of the war, saying it would only help Russia.
Zelensky is also trying to garner support for a peace conference in Switzerland next month, without Russia, and has urged US President Joe Biden to attend.
"If (Biden) is not present, it will be just like applauding Putin: personally applauding and doing so standing," Zelensky said Tuesday at a press conference.
According to Zelensky, Putin is "very scared" of the peace summit aimed at ironing out the terms needed to end the conflict.
"He has been trying to thwart this summit and continues to do so," Zelensky said.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said any such conference was "hopeless" without Russia's participation.
With this war well into its third year, there are few signs that Putin has any intention of stopping. His thinly veiled threats to wipe out small European countries is a serious matter and should prompt these and other countries to prepare for a much larger conflict on their own soil if Putin is not stopped soon.
Mr. Lansvin is a strategic advisor on a range of issues for various NGOs and governments around the globe.